NFL WEEK 6: In many ways, the first five weeks of the 2018 season have represented a changing of the guard in the NFL– the league’s only two undefeated teams are both upstarts led by quarterbacks in their early twenties, while the old guard in places like New England, Pittsburgh, and Green Bay is beginning to fray. We saw another example on Thursday night, as it was clear to anyone with eyes that Carson Wentz is the future of the NFC East while Eli Manning is, well, old news.
But are we being a bit too hasty in anointing this new breed of quarterback operating these spread-out, pass-first offenses? Remember, it was only yesterday that folks were hanging the Future of the NFL mantle on the likes of Robert Griffin III and Colin Kaepernick, and a brutish, defense-first team like Jacksonville nearly spoiled everyone’s talking points last year by bullying their way to the brink of the Super Bowl.
That brings us to this week’s premier game, the Sunday nighter between the Chiefs and Patriots in New England. The storylines write themselves– the new fastest gun in town vs. the legendary gunslinger; the offensive-minded coach with a long history of Not Quite Good Enough vs. the defensive tactician who seems to have figured out the NFL’s coaching cheat codes; the AFC’s reigning champion and perennial gatekeeper vs. the New Hot Thing. We all know that the Chiefs have had some regular-season success against the Pats in recent years, and we all know that success hasn’t meant much in the end. But for some reason it feels a little different this time– it feels like it’s the Patriots, not the Chiefs, who are being called upon to prove themselves. As to whether they’ll be able to do it, I’ve made my opinion known below.
We’ve had a brutal past two weeks, but so it goes sometimes and there’s a long season ahead. I’ve got a good feeling that these four will get us back on the winning path:
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (Min -10, 43)
Recommendation: Minnesota -10 at 1.96
The Cardinals broke through with a win last week, defeating a shorthanded San Francisco team 28-18 in a game they controlled throughout. But there were still major red flags, the most prominent being rookie quarterback Josh Rosen’s performance— 10/25 passing for 170 yards, with nearly half the yardage coming on a 75-yard touchdown pass to Christian Kirk on the team’s first offensive play. It’s important to remember that the San Francisco defense has been porous this season, surrendering 29.2 points per game and allowing 1,011 combined passing yards in the three games prior to facing Rosen. Now the Cardinals travel to Minnesota to face a Vikings team with Super Bowl aspirations— aspirations that have been revived after last week’s crucial 23-21 win in Philadelphia.
The Vikings defense has been nearly as bad as San Francisco’s statistically, but most everyone believes that’s an aberration, considering it’s a veteran unit that has been among the league’s best for the past couple of years. A situation like this— a home game against a 1-4 team that’s starting a rookie quarterback who’s completing less than 50% of his passes— is just what the doctor ordered for a defense and a team that’s beginning to regain its form, and you know Mike Zimmer won’t let his team forget the embarrassing Week 3 loss to Buffalo, so lack of focus and/or intensity shouldn’t be a problem here. And we haven’t even mentioned the improved Minnesota offense, which is showing elements of explosiveness behind Kirk Cousins’ 321 pass yards per game. This is an obvious mismatch— a severe beating is the likeliest outcome.
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins (Was -1, 45)
Recommendation: Washington -1 at 1.91
After a Monday night performance that will be remembered for all the wrong reasons— namely, Drew Brees leading the Saints to 43 points and throwing just three incompletions in 29 attempts en route to breaking the NFL’s all-time passing yards record— the Redskins now return home to face the 3-1 Panthers, who squeaked by the Giants 33-31 last week after kicker Graham Gano made an incredible 63-yard field goal as time expired. Carolina’s offense has been predictably run-heavy, leading the league in rushing yards per game but ranking 25th in pass yards per game, and they may be in for a tough matchup here against a Washington defense that has been stingy against the run, surrendering just 92.5 yards per game— 6th-best in the NFL.
Remember, the Redskins had played very well defensively prior to last week, allowing just 44 combined points in their previous three games, and no one would ever confuse the Carolina offense with the machine-like Saints. I expect a strong showing from the Washington D here, and on the other side of the ball, Redskins quarterback Alex Smith should find room to operate against a generous Carolina secondary that ranks 26th against the pass, surrendering better than 280 yards per game through the air. Expect a bounce-back performance from a Washington team that’s better than it showed last week.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys (Jax -3, 41)
Recommendation: Dallas +3 at 2.0
When it comes to Jacksonville, most will rightfully focus on the defense, a brash, physical unit that may be the league’s best. But the Jags often can’t overcome their own offense, as was the case last week, when Blake Bortles threw four interceptions, including a couple of truly ghastly ones that crippled any chances of winning. Despite occasional flashes of competence, Bortles has become somewhat known for these comically bad plays throughout his 5-year career, and when you look at the current state of the Jacksonville offense, there’s not a whole lot that inspires confidence. Star running back Leonard Fournette is still out with a hamstring injury, leading the team to sign the fossilized remains of Jamaal Charles a few days ago, and the banged-up o-line, which was abysmal against Kansas City, may be in even worse shape come Sunday, as three starters have been held out of practice this week.
The Dallas defense, meanwhile, has been rock-solid even without anchor Sean Lee, ranking in the top-10 in total yards allowed, points allowed, and yards per play allowed. It’s going to be tough sledding for the Jacksonville offense on Sunday. Of course, the same could be said for the Dak Prescott-led Cowboys offense, as it’s always tough to move the ball against the Jags. If the Jacksonville defense has a weakness, however, it’s stopping the run— specifically, a between-the-tackles, power running game. We saw a couple of teams exploit this weakness last year, and this season the Jags rank a mediocre 14th against the run, surrendering better than 100 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. Hellooooo, Ezekiel Elliott. With Zeke grinding out the tough yards and the defense ready to pounce on Bortles mistakes, I think the ‘Boys are a good value here as a 3-point home ‘dog.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (NE -3.5, 60)
Recommendation: New England -3.5 at 2.0
And now the marquee game of the week– the undefeated Chiefs heading to Foxboro to face Tom Brady and the resurgent Patriots. The term “resurgent” may sound a little silly when referring to New England, the NFL’s Evil Empire, but we must remember that just two weeks ago the Pats were 1-2, having lost to Jacksonville and Detroit by 27 combined points. People were wondering (for the 652nd time) if it was the end of the road for the Brady/Belichick dynasty, but that talk was quickly silenced after the Patriots won back-to-back games by 45 combined points. The offense feels dangerous again now that Brady has some more weapons at his disposal– Julian Edelman’s back, Josh Gordon is beginning to make an impact and will only see his role increase, Gronk’s relatively healthy, Sony Michel has emerged… we saw them slice up the Colts last week, putting up 38 points and 438 yards on a defense that has exceeded expectations this season, and now they get a shot at the struggling Chiefs D, a unit that ranks dead-last in the NFL in yards allowed and has surrendered 88 combined points in three road games.
Of course, the Chiefs have been able to overcome a leaky defense because their own offense has been so good, ranking 4th in the league in yards per game and 2nd in points scored, but the Pats have a veteran defense that seems to have found something over the past couple of weeks, and though Patrick Mahomes has been brilliant this season, we must keep in mind that this is just his 7th career NFL start. Growing pains are coming, it’s only a matter of when and how severe. But it’s not like New England is going to be able to shut down Mahomes & Co… no, this one will be a shootout, as you might expect with such a big total (60 at the time of this writing). The way I see it, however, we have an opportunity to back a suddenly-rolling Patriots offense in a primetime home game against the NFL’s worst defense. Mahomes or no Mahomes, this is going to be a tough one for the Chiefs to pull out.
