NFL WEEK 7: The Titans and Chargers kick off this Week 7 Sunday at London’s Wembley Stadium, and considering this will be the second of three consecutive weekends in which Wembley hosts the NFL, I’d say the league is pretty serious about their stated plans to bring the world’s greatest game (IMHO) to European soil. My fellow Jacksonville residents are whistling through the graveyard when it comes to the prospect of the Jags crossing the Atlantic permanently, willfully ignoring the clear signs and attacking those who state the obvious as being ill-informed or having bad intentions.

It goes something like this: Shad Khan has invested tens of millions in TIAA Bank Field and downtown Jacksonville, which means he would have no interest in a move that would increase the value of his team by hundreds of millions. Makes sense, right?

This week’s news that Khan is withdrawing his bid to purchase Wembley sent a wave of relief through northeast Florida, but his comments in the wake of the news were ominous, as he spoke about how London (meaning the revenue from the Jaguars’ yearly “home game” in London) was critical to the “viability” of the Jaguars in Jacksonville. The reason a word like “viability” is so odd in this context is because it’s not like the Jags are losing money– like every NFL team, the franchise is wildly profitable, bringing in nearly $400 million in revenue in 2017. So the Jags are most certainly viable in Jacksonville, in every sense of the word– but they’ll never be as VALUABLE in Jacksonville as they would be in London. That will never change. So when Khan speaks of “viability”, what he’s really saying is, “I want more money than a Jacksonville-based franchise can provide.” A sobering thought for those of us who enjoy having an NFL team in town.

Okay, I’ll climb off the soapbox now– on to the picks. A hard-luck loss in Sunday’s late game was our only losing bet last week, and hopefully these four will give us more to smile about:


Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Jax -4.5, 41.5)

Recommendation: Houston +4.5 at 1.91

I feel like most are expecting a bounce-back performance from Jacksonville this week— ever since dispatching the Patriots in Week 2 the Jags have been in a tailspin, losing 3 of their past 4 games and getting hammered 40-7 in Dallas last week. Many are pointing fingers at the defense after a couple of disappointing performances, but the issues on that side of the ball are temporary and fixable, and talking about the defense in Jacksonville is really burying the lede– it’s the Blake Bortles-led offense that has been the true source of the team’s problems, and there are no quick fixes or easy answers for the Jags on that side of the ball.

Bortles has been awful— he’s tied for the league lead with 8 interceptions, his 81.1 QB rating puts him 28th out of the NFL’s 32 starting quarterbacks, and his 7.06 yards per attempt is similarly depressing, slotting him right between Josh Rosen and Case Keenum. But the problems run much deeper than Bortles: the line has been decimated by injuries, star running back Leonard Fournette is still sidelined with a hamstring issue, and the receiving corps is objectively one of the NFL’s worst. And here comes the Houston defense, a unit that ranks in the top-10 in both yards allowed and points allowed and features Pro Bowl talent at every level. Watt, Clowney & Co. are surely licking their chops at the thought of facing the patchwork Jacksonville o-line, and the veteran Houston secondary is more than capable of pouncing on Bortles’ mistakes. In what should be a defensive struggle, I’ll take the team with the more dynamic offense and a 4.5-point cushion.


Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -3.5, 51)

Recommendation: Cleveland +3.5 at 1.95

After a surprising start to the season the Bucs have come crashing back to reality, losing their last three games to fall below .500. The defense has been the primary culprit, ranking last in the NFL in points allowed (34.6 ppg!!). In what some may see as a desperation move, the Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith this week and replaced him with Mark Duffner, but the problems stretch far beyond the coaching, and the unit could be without its best two linemen this week, as 6-time Pro Bowler Gerald McCoy and pass-rushing specialist Vinny Curry have both been unable to practice due to lower leg injuries. That’s good news for Browns rookie QB Baker Mayfield, who has struggled a bit in his last two outings and will now look to recapture the magic that he flashed earlier in the season.

He’ll never have a better opportunity— in addition to allowing the most points in the league, Tampa also ranks last in passing defense, surrendering 356 yards per game (!!!) through the air. Never in the history of the NFL has a defense given up so many passing yards on a per-game basis through six weeks of a season. And with McCoy and Curry both ailing, what’s to stop Mayfield from picking this defense apart, just like everyone else has? On the other side of the ball, the Browns will have trouble matching up with the terrific Tampa receiving corps, but the secondary has proven adept at producing turnovers, ranking 4th in the league with nine interceptions thus far, and Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston has been known as a guy who will put the ball up for grabs— he’s thrown 4 interceptions in just 61 attempts this season. I know this game is in Tampa, but I think the Browns are the better team and a sensible play as a 3.5-point ‘dog.


Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts (Ind -7, 43.5)

Recommendation: Indianapolis -7 at 1.92

Desperation has set in for these two teams, as they both find themselves in last place in their respective divisions and have a combined point differential of minus-90. The Buffalo defense has actually put up a fight in recent weeks, holding the opposition to 22 points or fewer in four consecutive games, but the offense has been pathetic, ranking last in the NFL in points scored (12.7 ppg) and next-to-last in yards per game (222.5 ypg). And things have taken a bizarre turn this week, as Bills coach Sean McDermott announced that Derek Anderson, the 35-year old journeyman who was out of the league prior to being signed by the Bills just last week, will get the start on Sunday in place of an injured Josh Allen.

The move speaks to a lack of confidence in presumed backup Nathan Peterman, and it must be depressing for the guys on the roster, as Anderson is a career backup who hasn’t even had time to learn the offense. In other words, this is pretty much a “no hope” situation for what was already a pretty hopeless offense, so it will be up to the Bills defense to keep the team in the game again. And while the defense has exceeded expectations over the past month, it’s not a dominant unit by any means, and it will be facing an Indianapolis offense that has produced 92 combined points over the past three weeks. Of course, the Colts lost all three of those games thanks to their own porous defense, but there’s no denying that Andrew Luck and the offense seem to be finding a rhythm, and I just don’t believe the Buffalo offense is capable of consistent production against anyone in its current state. This is a prime “get well” spot for the Colts and their much-maligned defense, and I have a feeling that Buffalo fans will have had quite enough of the Derek Anderson Experience after this week.


New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens (Bal -3, 49)

Recommendation: New Orleans +3 at 1.88

The Ravens are a tough team to figure out— their four wins have come by 90 combined points, but only one came against a team with a winning record, and they were very unimpressive in losses to Cincinnati and Cleveland. Joe Flacco seems rejuvenated with a fresh set of weapons at his disposal, and the Baltimore defense leads the league in both yards allowed and points allowed, but still… do you trust this team? The offense is averaging just a hair over 20 points per game since racking up 47 against the hapless Bills in Week 1, and though the defense has been impressive, we’ve seen them shredded by Andy Dalton and they gave up 342 passing yards to Browns rookie Baker Mayfield just two weeks ago.

We should learn a lot more about the Ravens this week, particularly on defense, because the New Orleans offense has been typically brilliant this season, leading the NFL with 36.0 points per game. The Saints finally have their thunder-and-lightning running back tandem back in action after Mark Ingram returned from his 4-game suspension in Week 5, so now they can return to the offensive identity that was so devastating last year– a heavy dose of Ingram and Alvin Kamara complemented by the surgically precise passing of Drew Brees. The New Orleans defense seems to be figuring things out after a slow start to the season, holding their last two opponents below 20 points, and this week they’ll be getting top cornerback Marshon Lattimore back from a concussion sustained in Week 5. Plus, the Saints are coming off a bye, so they should be both healthy and extra-prepared— since 2009, they’re an NFL-best 7-2 the week after a bye (a relevant stat since Brees and Sean Payton have been together that entire time). I think they have a excellent chance of going into Baltimore and pulling off the minor upset here.