After an absolute birdie-fest at the AT&T last week it was somewhat refreshing to watch some of the best players in the world look positively ordinary yesterday, as Riviera held up quite nicely in the opening round of the Northern Trust Open, with more players shooting 76 or worse than breaking par. Unfortunately, it was a rough day for us as well, as we lost both of our 3-ball bets and Charl Schwartzel was the only one of our pre-tournament picks to shoot par or better (more here). It’s only Friday, though, so there’s plenty of time to turn it around and make this another profitable week. Here are today’s selections:
Aaron Baddeley (3.5) vs. Graham DeLaet (2.62) vs. Justin Thomas (2.36)
I think you start here by eliminating Baddeley. He was horrendous yesterday, hitting only 3 fairways and 7 greens en route to a 5-over par 77, and he hasn’t played particularly well over the last few weeks, missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open and finishing 54th at the AT&T. Both DeLaet (-1) and Thomas (-3) played well yesterday, and the young Thomas seems to be the more physically gifted of the two players. However, DeLaet has played some great golf lately, shooting a combined 32-under par in his last 13 competitive rounds, and he’s made the cut in all three of his appearances at this event, so he’s clearly comfortable at Riviera. Thomas is a promising young player, but he missed the cut in his last event and this week marks his first experience at Riviera. Recommendation: DeLaet at 2.62
Jordan Spieth (2.24) vs. Sergio Garcia (2.76) vs. Fred Couples (4.4)
This marquee group lived up to its billing yesterday, with all three players shooting par or better to the delight of the massive gallery that followed them around. While any one of these three could realistically come out on top today, I’d have trouble backing Couples, who rarely plays these days (this is his first event of the year on the regular tour, he’s played once on the Senior Tour) and has recurring back issues that could disrupt his round– and your bet– at any time. Garcia and Spieth are two world-class players, but only one– Spieth– has been playing regularly in 2015. This is Garcia’s first event on the PGA Tour this year, and his results overseas (MC at Dubai, 46th at Qatar) have been less than inspiring. Spieth, meanwhile, has finished in the top-7 in three of his last 4 tournaments. Recommendation: Spieth at 2.24
Geoff Ogilvy (3.3) vs. Brendon Todd (2.64) vs. Charl Schwartzel (2.62)
I made my feelings about Charl Schwartzel’s chances this week known yesterday (here), and nothing about his even-par round on Thursday changed my mind. Yes, he missed some makeable par putts and only hit 8 greens, but he drove it straight and made 5 birdies on a tough day. His playing partners fared even better, with Ogilvy shooting 68 (-3) and Todd shooting 69, but I’m not willing to throw any money in Ogilvy’s direction after watching him miss cuts all over the world for the past two years (his world ranking has plummeted all the way to 177 in the midst of this horrendous slump), and Todd’s experience at Riviera is dwarfed by that of Schwartzel, who finished 5th in this event last year and 3rd in 2013. Although he finished last in the group yesterday, I have a feeling we’ll see a quality round out of the man from South Africa today. Recommendation: Schwartzel at 2.62
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