Oakland Raiders (3-12, 8-7 ATS) @ Denver Broncos (11-4, 7-8 ATS)

*ATS= against the spread 

BETDAQ Line: Denver -14 (47.5)

Significant Injuries

Oakland: LB Khalil Mack (questionable– hamstring), OT Menelik Watson (questionable– foot), WR Vincent Brown (out– groin), CB Chimdi Chekwa (out– hamstring), WR Denarius Moore (out– knee)

Denver: WR Emmanuel Sanders (questionable– hip), S T.J. Ward (questionable– neck), LB Brandon Marshall (out– foot)

Recent Trends

Oakland is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Denver

Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record

Oakland is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a win

Denver is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. AFC West opponents

Denver is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss

Denver is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record

The road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings between these 2 teams

The OVER is 4-1 in Oakland’s last 5 games overall

The OVER is 5-1-1 in Denver’s last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record

The UNDER is 6-2 in Denver’s last 8 games vs. AFC West opponents

Three reasons to back Oakland

1. The Raiders have turned it around after a miserable start to the season and are now playing their best football, as they’ve won 3 of their past 5 games. The wins have all come against quality opposition, too– they beat Kansas City in Week 12, San Francisco in Week 14, and the Buffalo Bills last week. Oakland is a team on the rise, and they’re simply playing too well right now to justify the 14-point number in this game.

2. The Broncos have won 4 of their last 5 but a closer examination reveals that they have steadily regressed over the second half of the season. They’ve now been held below 30 point in four straight games and 5 of their last 6, which is the first time that has happened in the Peyton Manning era. Manning himself has been a little shaky, and this week he’ll face an Oakland defense whose strength is the secondary. It’s going to be tough for Denver to cover a 14-point number without a big game out of their offense, and based on recent evidence I don’t think we can count on that happening.

3. The Raiders always exceed expectations when they travel to Denver, going 6-1-1 against the number in their last 8 games there. They’ve been a good bet in situations exactly like this, too: twice this season they’ve been a road ‘dog of 13 points or more and they’ve covered both times, losing by 7 in New England and by 6 in Seattle. All things considered, an Oakland bet makes a lot of sense here.

Three reasons to back Denver

1. This is a good team vs. a bad team, it’s as simple as that. The Broncos are 11-4 and they need a win this week to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs, while the Raiders are 3-12 and winless on the road. Besides, these teams met 6 weeks ago in Oakland and it wasn’t even competitive, as Denver cruised to a 41-17 victory.

2. Denver has an elite offense that averages nearly 400 total yards and 29 points per game. They’re very balanced on that side of the ball and they’re led by a future first-ballot Hall of Famer at quarterback. The Raiders, meanwhile, have surrendered more points this season than all but two teams leaguewide. It could get ugly on Sunday, just like it did the last time these teams met (a 41-17 Denver win).

3. As good as their offense has been, the Broncos have been even better on defense this season, as they rank 3rd in yards allowed and have held 3 of their past 4 opponents to 17 points or fewer. They should absolutely dominate an Oakland offense that ranks last in the league in total yards per game and next-to-last in points scored (15.9 ppg).

Prediction


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