PGA CHAMPIONSHIP: It hardly seems like we’ve had time to catch our breath since watching Henrik Stenson outduel Phil Mickelson on that memorable Sunday at Troon, but major championship golf returns this week with the PGA Championship at famed Baltusrol Golf Club in northern New Jersey.
Designed by A.W. Tillinghast nearly 100 years ago, Baltusrol’s Upper and Lower courses have combined to host seven U.S. Opens and four U.S. Amateurs, as well as the PGA Championship back in 2005. The Lower Course, site of this week’s proceedings, is a quirky par-70 layout which only features two par-5s– numbers 17 and 18– and can be fairly tame or frighteningly difficult depending on the setup. Tees will likely be moved around quite a bit this week, especially on the long, demanding par-3s, and the rough will be extremely penal, we know that much. How aggressive will tournament officials be with the pin positions, though? You can really hide pins on Baltusrol’s slick, knobby greens, and if you aren’t careful you could end up with a conservative, plodding, “grind-it-out” type of winner– someone like Lee Janzen, who won the ’93 U.S. Open on the Lower Course.
Nothing against Janzen, but I’m sure tournament organizers would prefer an outcome like they got at the 2005 PGA, when a dramatic up-and-down on the 18th hole left Phil Mickelson one shot ahead of Thomas Bjorn and Steve Elkington and two clear of Tiger Woods and Davis Love III. It was Mickelson’s first time hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy, so he’ll have an ocean of good vibes this week to go along with his excellent recent form. Lefty has been a popular play at nearly 25/1.
Dustin Johnson (9.0), Rory McIlroy (10.0), and Jason Day (11.0) head BETDAQ’s Win Market, but, as always with a field of this caliber, there are a number of legitimate contenders who are very attractively priced. Here are three guys you may want to keep an eye on:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Sergio Garcia (31.0)- After Stenson’s triumph at the Open, the title of “best player without a major” is probably held by Sergio once again, as it has been off-and-on for the past decade. Many are of the belief that it simply isn’t going to happen for the Spaniard; he’s certainly had plenty of chances, after all, and he’s long been plagued by inconsistencies with the putter. It’s worth remembering, however, that Sergio is only 36 years old– still in the midst of his golfing prime– and is currently playing the best golf of his career. That part isn’t really debatable: prior to finishing 5th at Troon, Garcia recorded 5th-place finishes at the BMW International and U.S. Open and a win at the Byron Nelson. When you include his 3rd-place showing at the Open de Espana it makes five top-5 finishes in six starts, and his ball-striking over that period has simply been peerless. And there are Baltusrol-specific reasons to like Garcia, too– not only did he find the top-25 in the ’05 PGA, but he has an excellent record at other A.W. Tillinghast designs, recording three top-12 finishes at Bethpage Black and finishing runner-up at the 2008 Barclays, held at Tillinghast’s Ridgewood Country Club. All available evidence suggests that Sergio will hang out near the top of the leaderboard this week and I’ll gladly have a taste at a price like 31.0.
J.B. Holmes (76.0)- Holmes is rapidly shedding his reputation as someone who plays better in run-of-the-mill Tour events than major championships, as his third-place showing at the Open gives him two top-5s in majors this year. One of the longest players in professional golf, Holmes has made great strides with his short game in recent years and is now a premier scrambler, ranking 35th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gaines: Around the Green. When you combine those things– prodigious length off the tee and a great short game– you get someone who makes a lot of birdies, and indeed Holmes ranks 6th on Tour in birdies per round and 25th in scoring average. A win this week would be career-changing, but it’s certainly possible… and more likely than a price like 76.0 would suggest.
Steve Stricker (146.0)- Though he only plays a limited schedule now at age 49, Stricker has shown in recent weeks that he should still be considered a threat anytime he tees it up and I admit to being a bit baffled by his ridiculously long odds here. Yes, I realize that he’s competing against guys who are half his age and it’s been quite awhile since he’s actually won anything, but he’s certainly been knocking on the door, finishing runner-up in last month’s St. Jude Classic and solo 4th at Troon, not to mention his 7th-place showing in the Valspar Championship back in March (that was just five starts ago for Stricker). Plus, the PGA Championship might as well be considered a home game for Stricker, whose record in this tournament since 2010 is simply astounding: T18, T12, T7, T12, T7, T30. I would still be considering a bet here if the price were cut in half, and the current odds make Stricker the best value on the board.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Jordan Spieth (1.8) vs. Henrik Stenson (2.0)
Has Stenson had a chance to catch his breath since his historic performance at the Open? He’ll be pressure-free and playing with “house money” this week, which certainly has its advantages, but I don’t think anyone would be the least bit surprised if he were to open with 76 and begin planning a vacation. Spieth, on the other hand, desperately needs a good performance here to save a season that has gone a bit sideways since his Sunday collapse at Augusta. And Spieth’s game isn’t as far off as some think– keep in mind that he finished 3rd at the WGC-Bridgestone earlier this month and closed with a 68 at Troon to sneak into the top-30. Recommendation: Spieth at 1.8
Justin Rose (1.91) vs. Adam Scott (1.91)
Scott seemed to be headed for a big year after back-to-back wins at the Honda Classic and WGC-Cadillac, but he’s played very average golf over the past three months and has been an objective disappointment in the majors, finishing 43rd in the Open, 42nd in the Masters, and 18th in the U.S. Open. Rose hasn’t had a big year by his standards either, but he played three rounds of beautiful golf at Troon and would’ve been right there had it not been for a 2nd-round 77. Plus, he’s had great success on old, historic northeastern courses (Merion, Congressional, Aronimink) and has recorded two top-5s in his last four appearances at this event. Recommendation: Rose at 1.91
