When the King calls, the world’s best answer.
The top five players in the world will all tee it up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week, which will be held at Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the 35th consecutive year. Notably absent from the field is 8-time champion Tiger Woods, who is apparently still recovering from mental issues that robbed him of his ability to hit a simple chip shot.
While Tiger is still a major attraction, his absence doesn’t detract from this tournament the way it might have in years past, especially with world number one Rory McIlroy making his first career appearance at Bay Hill. McIlroy hasn’t lived up to his own otherworldly standards in recent weeks, but he’s still the favorite at BETDAQ (6.8) and there’s already been plenty of money flowing in his direction. And, as you can see below, I’ve decided to join the party myself this week.
I’ve mostly avoided McIlroy this year out of concern that his dominant stretch of golf in 2014 had made him a tad overvalued in the betting marketplace, but I’m starting to get the feeling that it may be time to jump back on the bandwagon. With the Masters just three weeks away, I’m expecting a bit of a “statement performance” from the young Ulsterman. Just in case it doesn’t happen, though, we’re taking a small risk on a couple of long shots as well:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Rory McIlroy (6.8)- Yes, McIlroy has never played this tournament before. Does that disqualify him from playing four good rounds at Bay Hill? I mean, I guess we don’t have hard proof that Bay Hill sets up nicely for McIlroy, but based on what we know about the course and its recent champions– a list that includes Ernie Els, Vijay Singh, and, of course, Woods– and based on what we know about Rory’s style of play (hits it high and long, but also an excellent wind player), it sure seems like Bay Hill is the type of place where he should succeed. And we seem to have reached the place with Rory where even his “bad” play generally produces good results, like two weeks ago, when he sulked and stomped his way around Doral en route to a top-10 finish in a WGC event. If things brighten up just a bit for him this week he’ll probably be holding the trophy on Sunday evening.
Martin Laird (66)- Laird is a world-class player who certainly knows his way around Bay Hill, having won this tournament back in 2011. Plus, he’s been playing some great golf in 2015, picking up two top-10s and finishing no lower than 33rd in four PGA Tour starts. At the current odds, Laird is a tremendous value.
Matt Jones (190)- Jones should be rested and ready, as he hasn’t played since last month’s Northern Trust Open. He was last seen playing well, though, with top-15 finishes in each of his last two events. Like most Aussies, Jones always seems very comfortable in Florida, where the climate and native Bermuda grass are surely reminiscent of home. He’s played especially well at Bay Hill, making back-to-back cuts here and briefly contending last year before a final-round 72 left him in a tie for 14th. If you’re looking for long odds this week, you could do a lot worse than Jones.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Henrik Stenson (1.81) vs. Bubba Watson (1.91)
Look, I realize Bubba Watson has played some great golf lately, finishing 3rd in Doral two weeks ago and leading the Money List despite playing fewer events than some. I’m also aware that Bubba has played well in this tournament in the past, finishing 4th in 2012 and 8th in 2008. However, he’s also had his struggles at Bay Hill, failing to make the cut four times in his last 8 appearances. And Henrik Stenson has been phenomenal lately, picking up back-to-back top-5 finishes over the past two weeks and shooting 72 or better in 15 of his last 16 rounds. He’s also been terrific at Bay Hill in recent years, finishing 5th last year, 8th in 2013, and 15th in 2012. Recommendation: Stenson at 1.81
Jason Day (1.86) vs. Adam Scott (1.86)
Scott returned from an extended absence two weeks ago and didn’t show any signs of rust in finishing 4th at Doral. However, he didn’t play well at last week’s Valspar Championship, shooting 71-75 and missing the cut. Day, meanwhile, has only played once in the last month, finishing 31st at Doral after failing to break 70 in four consecutive rounds. And while Day is certainly good enough to succeed anywhere, his history at Bay Hill isn’t particularly inspiring, as he’s finished no better than 25th in four career appearances at Arnold’s event. Scott finished 3rd here last year and should contend again if his putter cooperates. Recommendation: Scott at 1.86
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