Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5, 5-7 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1, 6-5-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Cincinnati -3 (47)
Significant Injuries
Pittsburgh: CB Brice McCain (questionable– hamstring), DT Steve McLendon (questionable– shoulder), CB Cortez Allen (questionable– thumb), OT Marcus Gilbert (questionable– ankle), LB Jarvis Jones (questionable– wrist), DE Brett Keisel (out– tricep)
Cincinnati: CB Adam Jones (questionable– concussion), LB Vontaze Burfict (questionable– knee), DE Margus Hunt (questionable– ankle), DT Domata Peko (questionable– elbow), LB Jayson DiManche (out– forearm)
Recent Trends
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
Pittsburgh is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game
Cincinnati is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games
Cincinnati is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win
The OVER is 6-0 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 games overall
The UNDER is 4-0 in Cincinnati’s last 4 games overall
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Pittsburgh
1. The Steelers travel to Cincinnati every year and they’re always a great bet, covering in 13 of their last 17 opportunities. They head into this season’s game badly needing a win to further their playoff hopes and they’re facing a Bengals team whose last home game was a 24-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns. The wrong team is favored here.
2. Pittsburgh has one of the NFL’s best offenses, a unit that ranks 3rd in total yards per game, 4th in pass yards per game, and 8th in points scored (26.7 ppg). They’re facing a Cincinnati defense that has been tremendously disappointing this season, ranking 21st in yards allowed and 25th against the run. The Bengals have been especially bad at home, where they’ve surrendered 108 combined points in their past 4 games.
3. The Pittsburgh defense is healthier than its been in some time, as veterans Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor returned last week from injury-related absences and will joined by young linebacker Ryan Shazier this week. They should be able to limit the mediocre Cincinnati offense, a unit that ranks 18th in points scored and is led by quarterback Andy Dalton, who is frequently a liability in big games.
Three reasons to back Cincinnati
1. The Bengals have been better than Pittsburgh this season and this week they’re at home, where they’ve covered in 12 of their past 16 games. The Steelers have been especially shaky in recent weeks, losing to the Jets and Saints (combined record: 7-17) and squeaking by the lowly Titans in their last three games, while Cincinnati has won 3 in a row. These teams are moving in opposite directions and the Bengals should be enthusiastically backed as a short home favorite.
2. The Cincinnati defense is finally looking like the unit that finished top-3 in both yards allowed and points allowed last season, as they’ve surrendered 13 points or fewer in each of their past three games. The Pittsburgh offense, meanwhile, has has trouble on the road, producing 17 points or fewer in 4 of their 6 road games this season.
3. The Steelers have struggled defensively this year, ranking 25th in points allowed and surrendering 23 points or more in 6 of their past 7 games. They’ll have trouble containing a balanced Cincinnati offense that has produced 24 points or more in 4 of their 5 home games this season.
Prediction
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