PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s Premier League action with extended stats and BETDAQ recommended bets. The action starts at 12.30 with Fulham v Man U at Craven Cottage.
FULHAM V MANCHESTER UNITED
12.30pm We kick off another excellent weekend of Premier League action with Fulham hosting Manchester United. The home side managed to beat Brighton 4-2 in their last game here, however they have since lost to Palace and are now seven points away from the team in 17th position – it’s not looking good for them but an unexpected three points here would be massive. Fulham have only been beaten twice in their last seven games here, so while United are in excellent form and Fulham are towards the bottom of the table; it might not be the formality that some punters may think. However, United look massive at 1.66 – they should surely be shorter against a side like Fulham looking at the way they have been playing this season. United have been excellent under Solskjaer and we feel that they should be closer to 1.5 than 1.66 here. At 1.66, they look the best bet of the day in the Premier League.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Manchester United to beat Fulham at 1.66.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQFulMun
- Fulham have won just three of their 27 Premier League games against Manchester United (D5 L19), with two of those victories coming at Craven Cottage in 2009.
- Man Utd are unbeaten in 10 Premier League contests against Fulham, winning eight and drawing two.
- Only against Arsenal (20) have Fulham lost more Premier League matches than they have versus Man Utd (19).
- Fulham have won two of their last three home Premier League games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 11 at Craven Cottage (W2 D5 L4). They’ve not won back-to-back home games in the competition since April 2013.
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their eight Premier League games under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (W7 D1), netting 20 goals and conceding just six.
- Manchester United are looking to win six consecutive away games in all competitions for the first time since May 2009.
- Fulham have lost 22 of their last 23 Premier League meetings with ‘big six’ sides (D1) since beating Spurs 1-0 in March 2013, losing all eight this season by an aggregate score of 5-25.
- 80% of Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic’s Premier League goals this season have come in home games (8/10).
- Marcus Rashford has made 8% of his total Premier League appearances under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (8/100). However, in that time he’s scored 23% of his total Premier League goals (6/26).
- Fulham manager Claudio Ranieri has picked up just two wins in his 13 Premier League matches against Man Utd (W2 D6 L5), losing the last three in a row. Only versus Arsenal (5) and Charlton (4) has Ranieri lost four consecutive Premier League games versus a single opponent.
CRYSTAL PALACE V WEST HAM
3pm West Ham put a dent in Liverpool’s title hopes on Monday night with a hard earned draw, and if they battle as hard here as they did on Monday they should pick up more points against Palace. The home side have a poor record against West Ham, winning none of their last seven Premier League games – however after a poor start to the league this season Palace have really improved at home and this should be a very close affair. It’s been difficult to get West Ham right this season as they have been very inconsistent but on balance we feel the value call here is the Palace lay at 2.1. We strongly expect this match to be closer than those odds suggest and from a value point of view we’re very happy to lay Palace. It wasn’t so long ago that West Ham were beating United and Arsenal, and having holding Liverpool to a draw this week too; we feel that they can get a result here.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Crystal Palace at 2.1.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQCryWhm
- Crystal Palace are winless in their last seven Premier League encounters with West Ham United (D3 L4).
- West Ham have won three of their last four away games against Crystal Palace in all competitions (D1), as many as they’d mustered in their previous 12 (W3 D6 L3).
- West Ham have won their last three Premier League London derbies, with the first victory in this run starting against Crystal Palace in December. The Hammers haven’t won four consecutive such matches since February 1996.
- Crystal Palace have lost 54.84% of their Premier League London derbies (51/93), the highest ratio in the division. However, West Ham have lost the highest total number of such matches in the competitions (96).
- Having picked up just two points from their first 18 available at home in the Premier League this season (W0 D2 L4), Crystal Palace have won 10 from their last 18 available at Selhurst Park (W3 D1 L2).
- West Ham have lost their last three away Premier League games by an aggregate score of 0-7. They last lost four in a row on the road while also failing to score back in December 2006 (a run of seven).
- Crystal Palace have scored the fewest (3) and conceded the joint-fewest (3, level with Liverpool) Premier League goals in the opening 30 minutes of matches this season.
- With 15 penalty goals in 75 Premier League appearances, Crystal Palace midfielder Luka Milivojevic scores a penalty on average once every five games – more frequently than any other player in the history of the competition (minimum 50 games).
- West Ham’s Robert Snodgrass has been directly involved in three goals in his last two Premier League appearances against Crystal Palace (2 goals, 1 assist), including netting in the reverse fixture in December (3-2 win).
- 30% of West Ham’s Michail Antonio’s Premier League assists (3/10) came in one game against Crystal Palace, setting up all three of the Hammers’ goals in a 3-0 home win in January 2017.
HUDDERSFIELD V ARSENAL
3pm Huddersfield continue to be nailed to the bottom of the Premier League and things look very bleak indeed. They have lost their last six Premier League home games and looking back further, they have only scored five goals in their last 13 here. You would probably worry about Arsenal of old coming here and backing them but this Arsenal team has been impressive this season and they look huge at 1.65 to win. They have an excellent record against Huddersfield too; they’ve lost just once in their last 16 trips here in all competitions and while Arsenal do come here without a win in their last six away from home in the Premier League – Huddersfield are definitely lower in quality compared to the sides that they have been playing. The home side simply haven’t been good enough for the Premier League standard this season and we can’t get away from Arsenal here at the odds.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Arsenal to beat Huddersfield at 1.65.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQHddArs
- Huddersfield are winless in 11 competitive matches against Arsenal (D2 L9), since a 2-1 victory in January 1971.
- Arsenal have won their opening three games against Huddersfield in the Premier League – only against Watford (7), Reading (6), Wolves (6), Wigan (5), Cardiff (4) and Fulham (4) have they won their first four or more vs an opponent in the competition.
- Huddersfield have won just one of their last 16 home games in all competitions against Arsenal (D8 L7).
- Huddersfield have scored just five goals in their 13 home Premier League games this season. In top-flight history, only Arsenal in 1912-13 have ever scored as few at this stage of a campaign (also 5), while no team has ever gone the whole season without reaching double figures for goals at home.
- Huddersfield have lost their last six Premier League home games. The last team to lose more in a row at home in the competition were Wolves in April 2012 (nine in a row).
- Arsenal are the only team yet to keep an away clean sheet in the Premier League this season, with their last shutout on the road coming at Huddersfield on the final day of the 2017-18 campaign (1-0).
- Arsenal are winless in their last six Premier League away games (D2 L4), losing the last three in a row. Having scored at least twice in their first eight games on the road this season, the Gunners haven’t netted more than once in their last four.
- Huddersfield are winless in their last 12 league games (D1 L11), the longest current run in the top four tiers of English football.
- Both teams have found the net in 19 of Arsenal’s 25 Premier League games this season – no side has seen this happen more (Man Utd also 19).
- Seven of Alexandre Lacazette’s nine Premier League goals for Arsenal this season have been winning goals – only Mo Salah (8) has scored more winners in the competition this season.
LIVERPOOL V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm It hasn’t been a good week for Liverpool and now they are level on points with Manchester City; although they do have a game in hand. The worrying thing from a Liverpool point of view has to be the fact that they haven’t created too many chances lately. Leicester outplayed them at Anfield and they just didn’t attack well at West Ham – is that just unlucky or are they feeling the pressure? They are unbeaten in their last 33 home Premier League games and looking at how Bournemouth have been playing away from home this season, this game is a good chance for Liverpool to find their goal scoring touch again. Bournemouth have lost their last seven away Premier League games and conceded at least twice on all seven occasions too – we like Liverpool to cover the 1.5 goal handicap at 1.68. This is the fixture that Liverpool need at the moment.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Bournemouth at 1.68.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQLivBne
- This will be the 15th meeting between Liverpool and Bournemouth in all competitions, with the Reds losing only once in the process (W10 D3).
- Bournemouth’s only previous victory against Liverpool in their history came in the Premier League in December 2016, winning 4-3 at the Vitality Stadium.
- Liverpool have won five and drawn one of their six home matches against Bournemouth in all competitions, keeping three clean sheets.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 33 Premier League home games, winning 23 and drawing 10. They drew their last league game at Anfield, but haven’t failed to win two in a row there since December 2017 (3).
- Despite opening the scoring in their last two Premier League games, Liverpool have ended up drawing them both They’ve never scored first and failed to win in three consecutive games in the competition before.
- Bournemouth have lost each of their last seven away Premier League games, conceding at least two goals each time. The last team to lose eight in a row on the road were Crystal Palace (8 in November 2017), while the last to do so while conceding at least twice were Portsmouth in February 2006.
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored five goals in three Premier League appearances against Bournemouth, including netting a hat-trick in the reverse fixture this season.
- Liverpool forward Roberto Firmino has had a hand in six goals in six Premier League starts against Bournemouth (3 goals, 3 assists).
- Liverpool’s Sadio Mane has scored in each of his last three appearances in the Premier League – he’s never scored in four consecutive matches within the same season in the competition before.
- Bournemouth’s Josh King has scored three goals in his last three Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 14 in the competition.
SOUTHAMPTON V CARDIFF
3pm This is a massive game – probably the most important game of the day even allowing for Liverpool’s situation and United pushing for a Top Four spot. Southampton sit in 16th position with 24 points and Cardiff are just two points behind them in 18th – this is a real six pointer! Southampton have hit form at just the right time and have been collecting points over the last couple of weeks – they enjoyed wins over Everton and Leicester and have also picked up points against Palace and Burnley. Cardiff beat Bournemouth 2-0 at home last weekend however Bournemouth have been woeful away from home lately and prior to that Newcastle beat them 3-0 and they also lost away to Gillingham in the FA Cup. We feel that home advantage will be massive here and with Southampton playing some good football and getting results we like them at 1.79.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Southampton to beat Cardiff at 1.79.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQSouCar
- Southampton have lost only one of their last 14 home matches against Cardiff in all competitions (W10 D3), although that defeat came in their last such meeting in April 2014 in the Premier League.
- Cardiff have won two of their three Premier League games against Southampton (L1), only versus Fulham (3) have they won more in the competition.
- Cardiff are looking to record three consecutive victories against Southampton in all competitions for the first time since March 1963.
- Southampton are unbeaten in five Premier League games (W2 D3), last having a longer such run between April-August 2016 (7).
- Southampton have both scored (11) and conceded (12) in each of their last seven home league games.
- Following their win against Bournemouth last time out, Cardiff are looking to win consecutive top-flight matches for the first time since April 1962.
- Cardiff are the lowest away scorers in the Premier League this season (7 goals), while only Fulham (2) have picked up fewer points on the road than the Bluebirds (W1 D2 L9).
- Cardiff’s last five away goals in the Premier League have come in the 80 th minute or later, with three of them coming in the 90 th minute.
- Just one of Southampton’s five Premier League wins this season have been against sides starting the day below them (3-1 vs Huddersfield). Indeed, their other four victories have been against sides starting the day in the top half of the table.
- All five of Nathan Redmond’s Premier League goal involvements for Southampton this season have come under Ralph Hasenhüttl, with 3 goals and 2 assists in 10 appearances (after none in 15 games before that this term).
WATFORD V EVERTON
3pm This should be an interesting clash between two sides struggling at the moment. Watford have won just once in their last seven Premier League games while Everton have one win in their last five in all competitions and that came against Huddersfield who sit bottom of the Premier League table. This might not be pretty to watch but both teams could do with a win to boost confidence. Only a point separates the pair in the table as they sit in 8th and 9th – and it’s hard to see anything other than a very close game here. Watford are trading 2.38 at the time of writing and obviously with home advantage they should be favourites, but 2.38 looks a little short considering that they haven’t won many games lately. Everton are of course struggling but both sides are very similar and very close together in most areas and we feel that the value call is laying Watford – 2.38 just looks a little short.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Watford at 2.38.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQWatErt
- After losing their first two home Premier League games against Everton, Watford are unbeaten in three, winning the last two in a row.
- Everton have lost just two of their 11 Premier League meetings with Watford (both at Vicarage Road), winning six of those clashes (D3).
- In the top-flight, Watford have only lost more home games against Liverpool and Manchester United (7 each) than they have vs Everton (5).
- Watford have won their last two home Premier League games against Everton – they’ve never won three in a row against an opponent at Vicarage Road in the competition.
- Watford have picked up just one win in their last seven Premier League games (D4 L2), winning 2-1 at Crystal Palace in January.
- Two of Watford’s last three Premier League games have finished 0-0 – as many goalless draws as they’d had in their previous 57 games in the competition.
- After picking up 9/9 points from their opening three home league games this season, Watford have picked up just 8/27 in their subsequent nine (W2 D2 L5).
- Everton are looking to win consecutive away league games for the first time since September 2016.
- Five of Watford’s 16 home league goals this season have been scored by Roberto Pereyra (31%), though the Argentine has only scored in one of his last six at Vicarage Road.
- This will be Marco Silva’s first game at Vicarage Road as a visiting manager in the Premier League – he won just three of his 12 home games as Watford manager in the competition (D4 L5).
BRIGHTON V BURNLEY
5.30pm This might not be the most glamourous TV game to end the day’s action however let’s look for some value in the markets. Brighton are clear favourites with the match odds at the time of writing currently trading; Brighton 2.16, Burnley 4.1 and the draw is 3.35. Looking at the stats here we might not see much goal action – there’s been only one goal scored in their last three Premier League games between the sides! We feel that Brighton are too short here at 2.18 – they have just one win in their last ten Premier League games and while Burnley are having a poor season; surely Brighton should be a bigger price at 2.18 to win. We expect a much closer game than those odds suggest. Burnley come here unbeaten in their last six games and are hitting form at the right time in their fight to stay in the Premier League – Brighton at 2.18 looks the best value lay of the weekend.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Brighton at 2.18.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBriBry
- There has been just one goal scored in the three previous Premier League clashes between Brighton and Burnley, with the Seagulls failing to score on each occasion (D2 L1).
- Burnley are looking to do the league double over Brighton for the third time in their history after the 2011-12 and 1972-73 seasons.
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last six league matches against Brighton, although the first five games in this run ended level (W1).
- Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their league encounters with Brighton (14/29); their best such ratio against a side in their history (min. 20 games).
- Brighton have won only one of their last 10 Premier League games (D3 L6), beating Everton at the end of December.
- Only one of Brighton’s seven home defeats in the Premier League has come against a side from outside of the ‘big six’ (0-2 v Leicester in March 2018).
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last six Premier League games (W3 D3), with only Manchester United on a longer current run without defeat (8).
- Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored five goals in his last eight league starts against Brighton, although he’s failed to net in five of the last six.
- After netting seven goals in his first seven home Premier League games this season, Brighton’s Glenn Murray has failed to score in his last five at the Amex Stadium.
- With Joe Hart starting in goal this season, Burnley have won just three of their 19 Premier League games (16%), conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game. With Tom Heaton starting, the Clarets have won three of their six Premier League games (50%), shipping just 0.8 goals per game.
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