PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s Premier League games including MAN CITY v WATFORD at 5.30pm – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended stats.
CRYSTAL PALACE V BRIGHTON
12.30pm It’s a busy Saturday in the Premier League with seven games and we kick things off with Crystal Palace hosting Brighton. Palace have won just one of their last six home Premier League games and looking at their home record over the whole season doesn’t make great reading either – they have collected just 13 points from a possible 33. Brighton have had their troubles on the road though and it would be unwise to just rush into the Palace lay at 1.9. Just look at Brighton’s away record – they’ve actually got less points than Palace have at home! They’ve collected just eight all season and while we don’t like the Palace back at 1.9; it’s very hard to lay. This is always a very fierce match as both sides just don’t like each other and it’s hard to see anything but a close and hard fought battle. We’re happy to be on the draw at 3.6 in what should be a good battle between two out-of-form sides.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Draw at 3.6.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQCrlBri
- Crystal Palace have lost just one of their last nine home meetings with Brighton in all competitions (W6 D2), going down 0-1 in October 2005 in the Championship.
- Brighton are looking to do the league double over Crystal Palace for the first time since 1983-84 in the second tier.
- Crystal Palace have won just one of their last six home Premier League games (D2 L3). Indeed, the Eagles have won the lowest proportion of their points in home games in the competition this season (39% – 13/33).
- Brighton are looking to secure consecutive Premier League victories for the first time since December, when they beat Huddersfield and Crystal Palace.
- Brighton have lost five of their seven Premier League matches in London (W1 D1) – prior to this run, the Seagulls had lost just five of their previous 30 league matches in London.
- There have been 25 goals scored in 14 Premier League games at Crystal Palace’s Selhurst Park (F10 A15), fewer than at any other ground in the competition this season.
- Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored five goals in nine appearances against Brighton in all competitions – against no side has he scored more.
- Brighton’s Glenn Murray has scored in each of his last three appearances against Crystal Palace in all competitions for the Seagulls.
- Brighton manager Chris Hughton has won six matches against Crystal Palace in all competitions – against no side has he won more in his career (also six against Reading and Leeds United).
- After a run of 13 Premier League games without a single goal or assist, Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has been involved in six goals in his last six games in the competition (5 goals, 1 assist).
CARDIFF V WEST HAM
3pm This is a massive game for Cardiff; although at this stage of the season every game is massive for a club in the bottom three. Home form and getting points at home really is key to staying up when you’re fighting for survival and with Southampton having to play Spurs today too; a win here would see them jump over Southampton and into 17th. Things looked to be going good for Cardiff when they beat Bournemouth and Southampton away from home, however since then they’ve lost to Watford, Everton and Wolves while conceded ten goals. Two of those games were at home too and while West Ham have been really up and down this season, we feel today is a good chance to back them at 2.22. Cardiff just aren’t playing good football at the moment and West Ham have played well in their last four games – so we expect more trouble for Cardiff here and an away win.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
West Ham to beat Cardiff at 2.22.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQCarWhu
- Cardiff have lost all three of their Premier League meetings with West Ham by a two-goal margin, losing the reverse fixture 1-3 in December.
- West Ham have won their last seven meetings with Cardiff in all competitions, scoring at least twice each time and conceding just three goals. They last had a longer winning run against an opponent between 1989-2000 vs Watford (9 games).
- Cardiff have lost their last three Premier League games by an aggregate score of 1-10, with two home defeats included in that run (1-5 vs Watford, 0-3 vs Everton).
- West Ham have only won one of their last eight Premier League away games against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (D4 L3), beating Fulham 2-0 in December.
- West Ham have won two of their last three Premier League games (L1), having won just one of their previous seven beforehand (D3 L3).
- Away from home, West Ham have lost four of their last five in the Premier League (D1), failing to score in each defeat.
- Cardiff have scored just seven first-half goals in Premier League games this season, a league-low. They’ve scored a league-high ratio 72% of their goals after half-time in the competition this season (18/25).
- West Ham’s Marko Arnautovic has been involved in 10 goals in his last 11 Premier League appearances against newly-promoted sides (5 goals, 5 assists).
- West Ham boss Manuel Pellegrini’s first ever Premier League defeat was away at Cardiff City in August 2013 with Manchester City – he’s won his two against the Bluebirds since that defeat.
- No player has scored more Premier League goals for Cardiff this season than Callum Paterson (4), though the Scot has failed to score in his last 12 appearances in the competition.
HUDDERSFIELD V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm After Huddersfield produced a shock 1-0 win over Wolves, they slipped to a 1-0 defeat against Brighton last weekend and now they have injury troubles too. Bournemouth have been dire away from home, they’ve lost their last nine coming into this clash so while things look bleak at the bottom of the table for Huddersfield; they will surely be looking forward to this clash. Despite Huddersfield being poor this season, it’s very difficult to get away from the Bournemouth lay here at 2.36 – it just looks massively short for a side who have been so poor away from home. Not only have they lost their last nine away, they’ve also conceded at least twice on each occasion – they’ve actually conceded 28 goals in total. This will likely be a very low quality affair, but we have to lay Bournemouth at the odds here. It looks the best value lay today.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Bournemouth at 2.36.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQHddBou
- The last three league meetings between Huddersfield and Bournemouth at the John Smith’s Stadium have seen a total of 15 goals scored, with the Terriers winning 5-1 in 2013, 4-1 in 2018 and losing 0-4 in 2014.
- Bournemouth have found the net at least once in each of their last 13 meetings with Huddersfield in all competitions (W6 D5 L2).
- All three Premier League meetings between Huddersfield and Bournemouth have been won by the home side.
- Huddersfield are looking to win consecutive Premier League home games for the first time since November 2017, following their late winner against Wolves in their last home match.
- Huddersfield haven’t scored more than once in any of their last 20 home league matches, since beating Bournemouth 4-1 in February 2018. Only Sunderland (28 games between December 2002 and May 2006) have had a longer run of failing to score more than once in Premier League home games.
- Only two teams in top-flight history have scored fewer goals after 29 games than the 15 Huddersfield have this season – Leicester City (13 in 1977-78) and Derby County (14 in 2007-08).
- Bournemouth have lost their last nine away league games, conceding at least twice each time. In total they’ve shipped 28 goals in those games and scored just four in return.
- Huddersfield are the lowest home scorers in the Premier League this season (7), while only Fulham (37) have conceded more on the road than Bournemouth (35).
- Bournemouth boss Eddie Howe has lost three of his last four away league matches against Huddersfield (W1), losing against three different managers (Simon Grayson, Mark Robins and David Wagner).
- Callum Wilson has scored six goals in five league appearances against Huddersfield Town for Bournemouth, including four in three Premier League games.
LEICESTER V FULHAM
3pm We’ve seen plenty of changes at Fulham however the results remain the same. It’s hard to read too much into their loss against Chelsea last weekend; they were bound to be outclassed but they’ve now lost eight of their last nine Premier League matches and things don’t look to be heading in the right direction. Perhaps new management needs time to settle in; but there is no time given the situation in the Premier League table. This is an interesting game, and market, because Leicester are playing bad football at the moment. They’ve won just once in their last eight and ironically only Fulham have picked up less points than Leicester in that run. They’ve lost six of their last eight and while Fulham are a poor side – we have to lay Leicester here at 1.62 from a value point of view. We expect a closer game than those odds suggest with both sides playing poorly at the moment.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Leicester at 1.62.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQLeiFul
- Leicester have won none of their five Premier League games against Fulham (D3 L2), scoring just one goal in those matches.
- Fulham have only faced Norwich (8) more often without defeat in the Premier League than they have Leicester (5).
- Leicester have won just one of their last eight Premier League games (D1 L6). Indeed, only Fulham (3) have picked up fewer points from their last eight Premier League matches than Leicester (4).
- Fulham have lost eight of their last nine Premier League matches (W1), shipping at least twice in each game. Only twice has a team conceded 2+ goals in 10 consecutive Premier League games – West Brom in 2010-11 and Wimbledon in 1999-00.
- Leicester are looking to win consecutive home league games within the same season for the first time since January 2018.
- The average position at the start of the day for the four opponents Fulham have beaten in the Premier League this season is 17th, the lowest in the division. The highest ranked side the Cottagers beat were Brighton, who were 13th at the time.
- Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has won all six of his Premier League meetings with Fulham. Only Jose Mourinho vs Portsmouth and Roberto Mancini vs Wigan (both 7/7) have better 100% win rates against an opponent in the competition.
- Against Watford, Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers kept up his record of failing to win his opening league game at any of the clubs he’s managed in English football. In fact, at his previous four clubs, Swansea are the only side at which he managed to win his second league match in charge.
- Jamie Vardy is currently on 99 goals for Leicester in all competitions. He could become the seventh player to reach 100 for the Foxes, and the first since Gary Lineker.
- After netting in his first two away Premier League games for Fulham, Aleksandar Mitrovic has failed to find the net in his last 13 on the road. Each of his last six Premier League goals have come at Craven Cottage.
NEWCASTLE V EVERTON
3pm You won’t see a more open market than this one in the Premier League this weekend with the match odds at the time of writing currently trading; Newcastle 2.86, Everton 2.88 and the draw is 3.25. Everton have managed two wins in their last three away Premier League games, however this is not their usual away form – going back 15 games they have only won four times and they also had a poor away record last season. Newcastle have been playing some solid football and on balance, they look better value here at 2.86 compared to Everton at roughly the same price. They managed to beat Man City here and kept things tight away to Spurs afterwards – it was a surprise to see them lose 2-0 last weekend but prior to that they have been in good form and they look worth backing at the odds here.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Newcastle to beat Everton at 2.86.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQNwcEve
- Newcastle have won just one of their last 12 Premier League meetings with Everton (D2 L9), winning 3-2 at St James’ Park in December 2014.
- Everton have won four of their last five away Premier League games against Newcastle (L1), including the last two in a row. They’ve never won three consecutively away against the Magpies in the top-flight.
- No Premier League fixture has seen more penalty goals than Newcastle vs Everton (18). Indeed, of the 52 fixtures in the competition to have seen at least 100 goals, this one has seen the highest percentage scored from the spot (14.2% – 18/127).
- Newcastle have won their last four Premier League home games, by an aggregate score of 9-1. They’ve not won more consecutively at St James’ Park since a run of five between April-August 2006.
- Everton have kept consecutive clean sheets in the Premier League (W1 D1). They last kept three in a row in the competition in January 2017.
- Everton have won two of their last three away league games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 12 (W2 D3 L7). They’ve not won consecutive league games on the road since September 2016.
- Newcastle boss Rafael Benitez has failed to win his last three meetings with Everton in the Premier League (D1 L2). He’d only failed to win four of his first 14 against the Toffees in the competition (W10 D2 L2).
- Everton’s Theo Walcott has been involved in more Premier League goals against Newcastle than he has against any other opponent in the competition (5 goals, 5 assists).
- Richarlison’s 10 Premier League goals this season have been worth 11 points to Everton – only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s strikes have been more valuable for his team (14).
- January signing Miguel Almiron is creating three chances per 90 minutes on average for his teammates, more than any other Newcastle player.
SOUTHAMPTON V TOTTENHAM
3pm It would have come as a surprise to many that Spurs went to Dortmund and won during the week in the Champions League. They lead 3-0 from the first leg however Dortmund is always a tough place to go and it was impressive that Spurs were able to win. They really have been grinding out some good away result this season and we can see that thread continuing here. Spurs look massive at 1.89 and appeal as the best back of the day in the Premier League today. They may have lost away to Burnley recently, and Chelsea, however Burnley have been on an excellent run and obviously Chelsea are at a far higher level that Southampton. Cardiff were able to beat Southampton here recently and we expect Spurs to grind out another good result; we’re very happy to back them at 1.89.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Tottenham to beat Southampton at 1.89.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQSthTtm
- Since their return to the Premier League in 2012, Southampton are winless in their six home league games against Spurs (D2 L4). They’d won their previous five against them before that run.
- Tottenham have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League meetings with Southampton (W10 D2), scoring at least once in all 13 games.
- Southampton have won three of their seven Premier League home games under manager Ralph Hasenhüttl (D1 L3), as many as they had in their previous 24 combined at St Mary’s under Mauricio Pellegrino and Mark Hughes (W3 D11 L10).
- Tottenham have lost their last two away league games, the same number they’d lost in their previous 13 on the road (W11 D0 L2). They’ve only lost three in a row on the road under Mauricio Pochettino once before (November 2017).
- Southampton have lost more points from winning positions than any other side in the Premier League this season (20).
- Mauricio Pochettino has never lost away at former club Southampton in the Premie League (W2 D2) – only Harry Redknapp (five games against West Ham) has had a longer unbeaten away run against a specific side he’s formerly managed in the competition.
- Spurs striker Harry Kane has scored in each of his last four Premier League meetings with Southampton, netting six goals in total. He’s also scored in each of his last three against them at St Mary’s Stadium.
- Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has netted five Premier League goals this season, more than he has in any previous campaign in the competition. Those five goals have come in his last eight games – his previous five came over a period of 52 games.
- Pierre-Emile Højbjerg has made 13.6% of Southampton’s successful passes in the Premier League this season (1135/8365) – no midfielder has made a higher proportion for their side in 2018-19.
- Just 9.2% of Spurs striker Harry Kane’s Premier League touches this season have been shots – his lowest ratio in a single season since his first full campaign with Spurs in 2014-15 (7.5%), and down from 14.6% last term.
MANCHESTER CITY V WATFORD
5.30pm It’s no surprise to see Manchester City trading the shortest price of any team in the Premier League this weekend – it’s becoming the norm! They are trading 1.17 at the time of writing and although Watford have produced some surprise results in recent times; it’s hard to see anything other than a home win here. Looking at the head-to-head stats, City usually absolutely boss this fixture and they have won the last seven Premier League meetings by an aggregate score of 22-3! We still feel though that laying Any Other Home Win (City to score four or more and win) offers good value at 2.68. As we have seen in recent weeks City have been “just” getting the job done and with their busy fixture list they aren’t going to bust a gut to hammer teams 5-0 and 6-0. Two 1-0 wins against West Ham and Bournemouth were totally in control and we expect a similar game here – City to win in control without a big scoreline; and the Any Other Home Win lay looks great value.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Any Other Home Win at 2.68.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQMncWat
- Man City have never lost a Premier League game against Watford (W7 D2), winning the last seven in a row by an aggregate score of 22-3.
- In all competitions, Watford have lost their last nine meetings with Manchester City. They’ve only ever lost more consecutively against an opponent vs Man Utd (11 between 1987 and 2016).
- Watford have lost 10 of their 11 away league matches against the reigning top-flight champions, drawing the other in December 2015 against Chelsea.
- Manchester City have won nine of their last 10 Premier League games (L1), and are on the longest current winning run in the competition (5 games).
- Man City have won 42 of the 45 points available to them in home games this season (W14 D0 L1), losing only against Crystal Palace in December.
- Watford have won three of their last four Premier League games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 15 (W3 D6 L6).
- Watford have lost all nine of their Premier League games against sides starting the day top, scoring eight goals and conceding 26.
- Man City striker Sergio Aguero has scored 10 goals in six appearances against Watford in all competitions, including netting two hat-tricks against the Hornets.
- Sergio Aguero has scored 96 Premier League goals for Man City at the Etihad. One more will see him level Alan Shearer in third for most goals at a specific venue in the competition (97 at St James’ Park). Only Thierry Henry (114 at Highbury) and Wayne Rooney (101 at Old Trafford) have scored more.
- Only Man City’s Sergio Aguero (10) has been directly involved in more Premier League goals in 2019 than Watford’s Troy Deeney (5 goals, 3 assists). The Hornets captain has been involved in as many Premier League goals in nine games this calendar year as he was in 33 games in 2018 (6 goals, 2 assists).
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