PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s Premier League games with recommended BETDAQ bets and extended stats. The action kicks off at 12.30pm with EVERTON v WEST HAM.
EVERTON V WEST HAM
12.30pm The Premier League finally returns on Saturday after what has felt like a long International Break! Everton host West Ham in the early kick off with the home side starting the day in the relegation zone. Obviously with them sitting in 18th, it hasn’t been a good start to the season and they need to start picking up points quickly now that the squad has had a break. Sometimes International Breaks can work well in these situations, but if Everton lose their next two or three – surely alarm bells will start to ring loudly! On the other hand, West Ham have been pretty solid and sit comfortably in 8th position – that’s probably as good as they are but they are a decent and reliable side. We can’t have Everton at odds on here based on anything we’ve seen this season and we have to lay them at 1.99 – that looks woefully short based on their form this season. West Ham have been better at home, but they have drawn their last two away and can get a result here.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Everton at 1.99.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQevewes
- Everton lost this exact fixture 1-3 last season – they haven’t lost consecutive home games against West Ham in the top-flight since March 1930.
- West Ham have won two of their last three Premier League meetings with Everton (L1) – as many as they had in their previous 22 against them in the competition (W2 D7 L13).
- Everton have won more Premier League games (25) and scored more Premier League goals (83) against West Ham than they have against any other side.
- Everton have lost their last four Premier League games – they last had a longer losing run in the competition in October 2005 (six games).
- Both of West Ham’s Premier League defeats this season have been in home games – the Hammers are unbeaten in six away games in the competition (W3 D3), their longest run on the road since January 2009 (7).
- Everton are winless in their last eight early Saturday kick-offs (D3 L5), since beating Chelsea 3-1 in September 2015 thanks to a Steven Naismith hat-trick.
- Only Aston Villa (8) have dropped more points from winning positions in the Premier League this season than West Ham (7). Meanwhile, only Liverpool (21) and Manchester City (82) have been trailing for fewer minutes than the Hammers (96).
- Only Watford (3.5%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Everton (5.8%) in the Premier League this season. The Toffees have found the net with just one of their last 47 attempts in the competition.
- Everton have had 31 attempts from set piece situations (corners, throws and indirect free-kicks) in the Premier League this season – more than any other side – but are yet to score via this method.
- Gylfi Sigurdsson has scored (1) or assisted (2) a goal in each of his three Premier League appearances for Everton against West Ham.
ASTON VILLA V BRIGHTON
3pm It’s not a surprise to see this game as the most open market of the day. It’s hard to see anything other than a very close game between these two and they sit beside each other in the table going into this clash too. Brighton are a much improved side compared to the end of the last season and they have played some quality football at times. Villa banged in five goals against Norwich before the International Break and to be fair to them, they have scored plenty of goals since joining the Premier League. Both sides look vulnerable at the back and over 2.5 goals looks cracking value at 1.9. Villa have seen over 2.5 goals win in their last four fixtures while Brighton managed to scores three against Spurs prior to the International Break. There’s plenty of goals in these teams and not much at the back – overs looks an excellent bet.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Over 2.5 goals at 1.9.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQastbri
- Aston Villa have never lost a home match against Brighton in any competition, winning eight and drawing three of their 11 meetings.
- Brighton and Aston Villa last met in league competition in the 2016-17 Championship season – both games that campaign ended level.
- This is the first top-flight meeting between Aston Villa and Brighton since March 1983 – a goalless draw at the Goldstone Ground.
- Following their 5-1 victory at Norwich last time out, Aston Villa are looking to secure back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since May 2015.
- Brighton’s two Premier League victories this season have both been by a 3-0 scoreline – just two of their 18 previous wins in the competition had been by a 3+ goal margin.
- Brighton have failed to score in 23 of their 42 Premier League away games, including six of their last eight on the road. Among teams to have played in more than two full Premier League campaigns, Brighton have failed to score in the highest ratio of away games (55%).
- Aston Villa have scored at least twice in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since April 2010. They last did so in four in a row in April 2008.
- Wesley has been involved in five goals in his last six Premier League games (4 goals, 1 assist), and is Aston Villa’s top scorer in the competition this season (4).
- Despite playing just 155 minutes this season, Aaron Connolly has had the second most shots on target for Brighton in the Premier League this season (5), scoring two goals. The Irish forward is averaging a shot on target every 31 minutes, the second best ratio among all players to have played at least 90 minutes (Alexandre Lacazette, 29).
- Anwar El Ghazi has been involved in a goal (1 goal, 3 assists) in three consecutive league games for the first time for Aston Villa. He’s provided more league assists than any other player at the club in 2019 (8).
BOURNEMOUTH V NORWICH
3pm After the absolute high of beating Manchester City, Norwich have been brought down back to earth with a bang. They’ve had three straight losses, ending with the embarrassment of shipping five goals in front of their own fans against Aston Villa. They’ve lost their last three away games without scoring, all three ending 2-0 and they come into this game sitting 19th in the table. It’s actually hard to believe they have six points and three came from Manchester City! Bournemouth went into the International Break with a loss too; losing 1-0 away to Arsenal but they have been reasonably solid this season and sit 10th in the table, they have been scoring goals and beating the likes of Southampton and Everton etc. With home advantage they should way too much firepower for this poor Norwich side and at 1.76 they look worth backing.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Bournemouth to beat Norwich at 1.76.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbounor
- The only previous Premier League meetings between Bournemouth and Norwich came in the 2015-16 campaign, with the Cherries winning this exact fixture 3-0 in January 2016.
- Norwich have lost their last two meetings with Bournemouth in all competitions, more than they had in their previous eight against them (W3 D4 L1).
- Bournemouth and Norwich are the only Premier League sides yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Indeed, Norwich have conceded more goals than any other side (21).
- Norwich have conceded at least twice in each of their last six Premier League games. They last conceded 2+ goals in seven consecutive league games in April 1985.
- Since they were promoted to the Premier League in 2015, Bournemouth have had 90 games in which both teams have scored in the competition – only Leicester (93) and Arsenal (92) have had more in that time.
- Norwich have scored just one away goal in the Premier League this season; this accounts for just 10% of their total goals so far, the lowest ratio scored away from home.
- Norwich have been trailing for longer than any other Premier League side this season (412 minutes), losing all six games in which they’ve been behind.
- Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson and Ryan Fraser have each played 99 Premier League games for the club. The last time a side had two players make their 100th appearance for the club in the competition in the same game was Man City in August 2016 (Jesus Navas and Fernandinho).
- Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson has scored five goals in his six Premier League home games against promoted sides. He’s one goal or assist away from 50 goal involvements in the competition (38 goals, 11 assists).
- Teemu Pukki has scored Norwich’s only away goal in the Premier League so far this season. In eight of the last 10 away league games in which Norwich have scored, Pukki has found the net himself at least once.
CHELSEA V NEWCASTLE
3pm Things were looked quite grim for Newcastle heading into the International Break, but it wasn’t anything that a fixture against Manchester United couldn’t solve! A 1-0 home win took them up to 16th and although it’s very tight at the bottom it gives them a little breathing room going into a fixture like this. It’s hard to see how they can beat this Chelsea side and we can’t judge beating United as an improvement given how poor United have been this season. Chelsea clicked into gear before the International Break and they would have been gutted to not keep the run going – they four games in a row while scoring 15 goals in all competitions. If the International Break hasn’t broke their stride they should easily outclass this Newcastle side who have looked very poor at times this season – especially against Leicester prior to beating United. We expect Chelsea to cover the 1.5 goal handicap and the 1.9 looks massive.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Chelsea -1.5 goals to beat Newcastle at 1.9.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQchenew
- Chelsea have won their last six Premier League home games against Newcastle, scoring 17 goals and conceding three.
- Newcastle have won just one of their last 25 away league games against Chelsea (D7 L17), winning 2-0 under Alan Pardew in May 2012.
- Chelsea have won just 36% of their Premier League points in home games this season (5/14), the third lowest ratio in the division. In a complete Premier League campaign, the lowest percentage of points won in home games the Blues have had is 47% (39/83 in 2008-09).
- Newcastle have won their last two Premier League games in London (vs Fulham and Spurs), as many as they had in their previous 20 (W2 D3 L15). They last won more consecutively in the capital in January 2014 (4).
- Newcastle are looking to secure back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since April. Both of their wins this season have been by a 1-0 scoreline and against ‘big six’ opposition.
- Excluding own goals, Chelsea have scored 13 Premier League goals through English players this season, at least five more than any other side.
- Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud has scored more Premier League goals against Newcastle than he has vs any other opponent (8). However, all of those strikes came in his first six games against them, with the Frenchman failing to net in any of his last six against the Magpies (including three apps for Chelsea).
- Newcastle manager Steve Bruce has won just one of his 21 Premier League meetings with Chelsea (D5 L15), though this did come at Stamford Bridge in November 2010 (3-0 with Sunderland).
- Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham is the first English player to score as many as eight goals in his side’s first eight Premier League games of a season since Wayne Rooney in 2011-12 (9).
- 19-year-old Matty Longstaff scored on his Premier League debut for Newcastle against Man Utd last time out. The last teenager to score in consecutive top-flight games for the Magpies was Charles N’Zogbia in February 2006.
LEICESTER V BURNLEY
3pm Leicester are flying high in the Top Four coming into this fixture and they very nearly got a result away to Liverpool before the International Break too. Burnley should be a test for Brendan Rodgers men, but it’s hard to see them not coming through it. The home side have been very impressive this season, and while Burnley have been solid – they have failed to beat Aston Villa and Brighton in their last two away games. Leicester have scored ten goals in their last three home games, winning all three fixtures. They have a good record here against Burnley too – going eight games without losing, winning four of those. Burnley have kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 away Premier League games and with Leicester in excellent form and full of confidence, it’s easy to see Vardy and Co outscoring this Burnley side. The 1.61 on the home win looks like a banker for a lot of Acca’s this weekend.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Leicester to beat Burnley at 1.61.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleibur
- Leicester are unbeaten in all four of their Premier League home games against Burnley (W2 D2).
- Having been unbeaten in their first five away games against Leicester at the King Power Stadium without conceding a single goal (W4 D1), Burnley are winless in their last eight at the ground (D4 L4).
- Leicester are unbeaten in six home league games (W4 D2), winning the last three in a row by an aggregate score of 10-2. They last won more in a row at the King Power Stadium between February-May 2017 (a run of five).
- Since Brendan Rodgers’ first league game in charge of Leicester on March 3rd, only Liverpool (52), Man City (46) and Chelsea (33) have won more Premier League points than the Foxes (31).
- Burnley are winless in their last six away league games (D2 L4), though the last three have all ended level and featured an equaliser in the final 10 minutes (2 for Burnley, 1 against).
- Burnley have kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 Premier League away games (0-0 at Watford), conceding at least once in each of their last 11 on the road. Their last three shutouts away from home have all been in goalless draws.
- Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has won five of his six previous meetings with Burnley in all competitions, losing only with Swansea in a Championship match in 2011.
- Since the start of last season, no player has created more chances from set plays than Leicester’s James Maddison (50) – in the same time, only three clubs have conceded more goals from set pieces than Burnley (16, excluding penalties).
- Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has scored 10 goals in his last 10 Premier League home games. Indeed, in 2019 only Sadio Mane (15) and Sergio Aguero (12) have scored more home goals than Vardy (10).
- Jay Rodriguez has featured in all eight of Burnley’s Premier League games this season, but each time as a substitute. Only one player in Premier League history has appeared as a sub in each of his sides first nine games to a campaign – Duncan Ferguson at Everton in 2004-05 (first 11).
TOTTENHAM V WATFORD
3pm These two haven’t had good starts to their season. Spurs have been all over the place, while Watford come into this fixture bottom of the Premier League. The International Break will have probably helped both camps, although given the rumours about Spurs this season perhaps their camp won’t be happy for a long time! Watford have been really poor this season and they just haven’t got going at all. They surely have too much class to go down, however another two or three losses in a row and it will be panic stations – we’ve seen it happen before. Spurs should get the job done here, but the 1.44 on them is grossly short. They’ve lost their last two games while conceding ten goals along the way. They look like a team who just aren’t play for each other at the moment. While Watford have been poor, we just can’t have Spurs at 1.44 and from a value point of view, we have to lay them.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Tottenham at 1.44.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQtotwat
- Tottenham have won each of their last nine top-flight home games against Watford, including all six in the Premier League. Their record of six wins from six home games is their best such 100% home winning record in the Premier League.
- Watford have won just one of their 12 Premier League meetings with Spurs (D3 L8), with that win coming at Vicarage Road in September 2018.
- Watford’s last three away games against Tottenham in all competitions will all have taken place in different stadiums – Stadium MK in September 2018, Wembley in January 2019 and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for this game.
- Since beating Arsenal 2-1 in January 2017, Watford have lost 16 consecutive Premier League away games against ‘big six’ opponents, scoring just nine goals and conceding 53 in return.
- Tottenham have lost more games in all competitions in 2019 than any other Premier League side (17). The last calendar year in which they lost more games was 2008 (19).
- Spurs have won six of their nine Premier League home games since moving into the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (W6 D1 L2), including winning three of their four such games this term.
- Watford are winless after eight Premier League games this season (D3 L5) – only in 2006-07 (10), 1990-91 (9) and 1984-85 (9) have they had a longer winless start in any of their previous league campaigns.
- Tottenham have lost five of their last 33 Premier League meetings with sides starting the day bottom of the table (W23 D5 L5) – all five of those defeats have been against teams beginning with ‘W’ (West Ham, Wigan and West Brom x3).
- Watford have scored just four Premier League goals this season, but based on Opta’s expected goals (xG), the quality of chances they’ve had means they should have scored 11 – giving them the biggest negative difference between goals and xG in the division (7).
- Against no side has Tottenham’s Son Heung-min scored more Premier League goals than he has against Watford (5, level with Bournemouth and Crystal Palace). The South Korean is also Tottenham’s highest goalscorer in all competitions at their new stadium (5).
WOLVES V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm Wolves had to wait a while for their first Premier League win of the season, but they followed that up in style with a 2-0 win away to Manchester City! Their first win came against Watford, and while that would have given them confidence it surely wasn’t a sign that they could beat City away from home. They will be one of a very select number of sides who do that this season. Wolves look massive here at 1.89 to beat a Southampton side who sit in 17th position heading into the weekend fixtures. Southampton have had a tough run of fixtures, having to play Chelsea and Spurs in their last two games and while they have kept things very tight away from home this season – Wolves just look too big here at 1.89 and we can’t get away from the home win. It looks cracking value.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Wolves to beat Southampton at 1.89.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwolsou
- Wolves have won their last two home meetings with Southampton in all competitions, having won none of their previous nine against them at Molineux (D5 L4).
- Southampton have won three of their four Premier League meetings with Wolves (L1). All four meetings between the two sides in the competition have been won by a margin of two or more goals.
- Wolves have won their last three games in all competitions, keeping a clean sheet each time. They last won four in a row in April 2018.
- Southampton have lost their last three Premier League games, last losing four in a row in April 2018. However, Saints have won a league-high 86% of their Premier League points on the road this season (6/7).
- This will be Wolves’ 100th Premier League home game (W34 D24 L41). Whatever the result, only West Brom (45) and Crystal Palace (44) will have lost more of their first 100 home games in the competition than Wolves.
- Wolves have lost just one of their last 12 home league games (W7 D4), losing 2-5 against Chelsea last month.
- No Premier League side have kept more away clean sheets in all competitions this season than Southampton (4). Saints have kept four clean sheets in six away games this term – just two fewer than they’d kept in 23 on the road last season.
- Adama Traoré scored twice for Wolves as they beat Man City 2-0 in their last Premier League game – the Spaniard had scored just once in his previous 72 matches in the competition for Aston Villa, Middlesbrough and Wolves combined.
- Southampton’s Danny Ings is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since January 2015. All three league games he’s scored in this season have ended in defeat, more than any other player in the competition.
- Southampton’s Danny Ings has scored four goals in his last three games in all competitions – he’s never previously scored in four consecutive games in English football.
CRYSTAL PALACE V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm Manchester City get the chance to close the gap on Liverpool at the top of the Premier League table, but only because Liverpool don’t play until tomorrow. It’s early in the season, but eight points already looks like a bridge too far considering how well Liverpool have been playing. The pressure in the City dressing room must be immense given their recent loss to Wolves at home – couple that with Norwich away and they have dropped too many points that Liverpool simply won’t. Palace are unbeaten in their last three games coming into this clash and they have been much improved at home this season. They sit in sixth position heading into this weekend and they have been rock solid – with home advantage we can see them keeping things very tight here. City will probably get the job done in the end, but we like Crystal Palace on the handicap – they’re 2.3 +1.5 goals and that looks massive given their form this season.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Crystal Palace +1.5 goals to beat Manchester City at 2.3.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcrymci
- Crystal Palace are winless in their last four Premier League home games against Man City (D1 L3) since a 2-1 win in April 2015.
- Man City have scored in 15 of their last 16 Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace, failing only in a goalless draw in December 2017 which ended their top-flight record run of 18 consecutive victories.
- Manchester City have won nine of their last 10 Premier League games in London, losing the other against Chelsea in December 2018.
- Crystal Palace are looking to secure three consecutive Premier League wins within the same season for the first time since May 2018. The Eagles have alternated between a draw and a win over their last six Premier League home games.
- Manchester City have won 10 of their last 11 away league games, losing only against Norwich in this run. They’ve found the net at least once in each of their last 15 league games on the road, netting 36 goals in total.
- There have been 19 Premier League goals scored this season following a move of 10+ passes – eight of them have been scored by Manchester City (42%), while no other side has scored more than two such goals.
- Since the start of last season Manchester City have conceded the first goal in just five Premier League games (W1 D1 L3). They’ve done so in two of their eight games this season (losing both), having done so in just three of their 38 games last term (W1 D1 L1).
- In Man City boss Pep Guardiola’s managerial league career, the only English manager he’s ever lost to is Crystal Palace’s Roy Hodgson (2-3 at the Etihad, December 2018).
- Only at Anfield (7) has Man City striker Sergio Agüero played more Premier League games without finding the net than he has at Selhurst Park (6).
- Jordan Ayew’s three Premier League goals this season have been worth six points to Crystal Palace – only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s goals have been more valuable to a side (9).
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