PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s Premier League matches with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. The action starts at 12.30pm with NEWCASTLE v MAN CITY.
NEWCASTLE V MANCHESTER CITY
12.30pm We kick off another action packed weekend in the Premier League with Newcastle host Manchester City. With Jose Mourinho coming back to Spurs last week and Unai Emery sacked this week, who knows what will happen this weekend! Manchester City won’t care about Spurs and Arsenal though, they need to keep winning and hope Liverpool drop points somewhere. Newcastle had a disappointing result last weekend against Aston Villa but prior to that they had been performing well and picking up points. They have been pretty solid at home and we feel that they can keep the scoreline respectable here. Any Other Away Win (Manchester City to score four or more and win) looks too short at 3.35 in the Correct Score market. Newcastle may have been embarrassed away from home against Leicester but they have improved since – they held Chelsea to 1-0 away and beat Manchester United 1-0 here. They can keep it close today.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Any Other Away Win at 3.35.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewmci
- Newcastle are looking to secure back-to-back Premier League victories over Man City for the first time since November 2003, having won this exact fixture 2-1 back in January.
- Manchester City have found the net in each of their last 21 Premier League games against Newcastle (54 goals in total), winning 18 (D2 L1). Only against Fulham (22) have they had a longer scoring streak in the competition.
- Newcastle are unbeaten in five home league games since defeat against Arsenal on the opening weekend (W2 D3). Only Leicester (3) have conceded fewer home goals in the Premier League this season than the Magpies (4).
- Manchester City have scored at least once in each of their last 17 Premier League away games, and are one of just two sides to have netted in 100% of their away league games this season, along with Liverpool.
- Manchester City have conceded the first goal in each of their last three Premier League games, though they’ve come back to win two of those (L1). They last conceded first in more games in a row back in March/April 2012 (5).
- Manchester City are averaging a shot on target faced every 24 minutes in the Premier League this season, their worst ratio in the competition since 2010-11 (also one every 24 minutes). Last season, they faced a shot on target every 41 minutes on average.
- Manchester City striker Sergio Agüero has scored 15 goals in 13 Premier League appearances against Newcastle – more than any player has scored against an opponent for a single club in the competition’s history.
- Newcastle’s Miguel Almirón has had more shots without scoring than any other Premier League player this season (22). Indeed, the Paraguayan is waiting for his first ever goal in the competition (23 games, 41 shots, 13 on target).
- Man City’s Gabriel Jesus has scored seven goals in his last eight Premier League starts, including three in four so far this term.
- Man City’s Riyad Mahrez has scored 49 Premier League goals, netting the winner for City against Chelsea last time out. He could become the 110 th overall, ninth African and first Algerian player to reach 50 in the competition.
BURNLEY V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Crystal Palace have had such a tough run of fixture. They come into this game having had to play Manchester City, Arsenal, Leicester, Chelsea and Liverpool. They didn’t even get to play someone easy like Manchester United in between! You have to say that they have performed well given the circumstances – they held Arsenal to a draw away from home and nearly held Liverpool last weekend. They haven’t been embarrassed by in-form teams like City, Leicester or Chelsea either. This afternoon won’t be easy for Palace either, Burnley are having a decent season and sit in seventh coming into this weekend. They’ve scored six goals in their last two games and we can’t have over 2.5 goals trading so big at 2.3. Both teams have goals in them and they’ve also been conceding a fair few too. We expected overs to be closer to 2.0.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Over 2.5 goals at 2.3.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburcry
- Burnley have lost just two of their last 11 home league games against Crystal Palace (W5 D4 L2), though these defeats have come in their four such matches in the Premier League (W2 D0 L2).
- Crystal Palace have won their last three league meetings with Burnley, as many as they had in their previous 13 against the Clarets (W3 D4 L6).
- Burnley have won their last two Prier League games, both by a 3-0 scoreline. In their league history, they last won three consecutive games by 3+ goals back in December 1926.
- Crystal Palace are winless in their last five Premier League games (D1 L4), losing each of the last three in a row. They last lost four consecutive Premier League games in March 2018.
- Crystal Palace have won five of their last six Premier League games played outside of London (L1), with this their first such match since a 2-1 victory at Manchester United in August.
- Only the current top three of Liverpool (6), Leicester (5) and Man City (5) have scored more goals from outside the box in the Premier League than Burnley this season (4). However, no side has attempted fewer shots from distance this term than the Clarets (45).
- Only Leicester (6) have kept more Premier League clean sheets than Burnley this season (5), while only Watford (7) have failed to score in more games than Crystal Palace (6).
- Burnley have had 36 open play sequences of 10+ passes in the Premier League this season, fewer than any other side. On top of this, 22% of the Clarets attempted passes this season have been long passes (over 30 yards), the highest ratio in the division.
- Only Watford (8) have scored fewer Premier League goals than Crystal Palace this season (11), though the Eagles have scored more away from home (6) than they have at home (5).
- After a run of nine games without a goal, Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored six goals in his last six Premier League games. He’s scored in each of his last three league games, last scoring in four in a row with Leeds in the Championship in January 2017.
CHELSEA V WEST HAM
3pm Chelsea would have been disappointed with a 2-2 draw against Valencia midweek in the Champions League but it’s always been a tough place to go and win. Frank Lampard’s men remain in good form and they look very settled and confident under him. You can’t say the same about West Ham however; they’ve lost five of their last seven Premier League games and only picked up draws in the other too. Emery might have won the sack race this week, but if West Ham don’t start winning Pellegrini won’t be far behind him. Chelsea have a great home record against West Ham and Pellegrini must be worried that a big loss here would see him out the door. With Chelsea playing good football and West Ham struggling, we like the home side to cover the handicap. They’re trading 1.85 -1.5 goals and that looks cracking value. West Ham have conceded nine goals in their last three games.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Chelsea -1.5 goals to beat West Ham at 1.85.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQchewes
- Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 13 home Premier League meetings with West Ham (W9 D4) since a 2-3 loss in September 2002.
- West Ham have won just one of their last seven Premier League meetings with Chelsea (D3 L3), winning 1-0 at home under David Moyes in December 2017.
- Having failed to win any of their first three home league games this season (D2 L1), Chelsea have won each of their last three at Stamford Bridge without conceding. They last won four in a row while keeping a clean sheet each time back in January 2015 (a run of five in which the fourth game was against West Ham).
- West Ham are winless in their last seven Premier League games (D2 L5), losing each of the last three while conceding three goals each time. Twice before in the competition have West Ham lost four in a row while conceding 3+ goals each time (September 2010 and September 2016), and they could become the first team to suffer this on three separate occasions.
- This will be Chelsea’s 250th Premier League London derby (W128 D67 L54). The Blues have won more such games than any other side in the competition’s history, and also have the best points-per-game ratio (1.8).
- West Ham have lost more Premier League London derby matches than any other side – their next such defeat will be their 100th in the competition (W67 D48 L99).
- Chelsea have opened the scoring in more different Premier League games than any other side this season (11). Five of those 11 goals have been netted by striker Tammy Abraham, more than any other player in the division.
- Just 32% of Chelsea’s Premier League goals this season have been scored in home games (9/28). The lowest ratio of goals scored at home in a complete Premier League season is 34% by Manchester City in 2006-07 (10/29).
- West Ham’s Michail Antonio has scored in each of his last three Premier League London derby games – no player has ever scored in four such successive appearances in the competition for the Hammers.
- In all competitions this season, West Ham have conceded a goal on average every 41 minutes with Roberto Jiménez in goal (19 in 776 mins) compared to one every 72 minutes with Lukasz Fabianski between the posts (8 in 574 mins).
LIVERPOOL V BRIGHTON
3pm Brighton have drawn the unfortunate fixture this week against the Premier League Champions elect. Liverpool haven’t been at their best in recent weeks, but they still look unbeatable. They have really grinded out results away to Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, now back in front of their own fans this should be a routine three points. The markets agree with Klopp’s men trading 1.23 at the time of writing. Liverpool come into this game off the back of 13 straight home Premier League wins and with Brighton conceding three away to Manchester United, they can concede more here. Any Other Home Win (Liverpool to score four or more and win) is trading 3.75 in the Correct Score market and that looks massive value. It’s been a while since Liverpool turned on the style and they can do that today.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Any Other Home Win at 3.75.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQlivbri
- Liverpool have won their last seven meetings with Brighton in all competitions, scoring 22 goals and conceding just five.
- Brighton have lost eight of their 10 away league games against Liverpool (W1 D1), with their only victory coming in the top-flight in March 1982 (1-0).
- Liverpool are unbeaten in 30 Premier League games (W25 D5). If they avoid defeat here it would see them equal their all-time longest unbeaten run in top-flight history, when they went 31 games without defeat between May 1987-March 1988.
- Liverpool have won their last 13 Premier League home games, their longest such run in the competition. Indeed, only between January-December 1972 have they won more consecutive top-flight home games (21).
- Since winning 3-0 at Watford on the opening weekend, Brighton are winless in five Premier League away games (D1 L4), losing each of their last three. They last lost four in a row on the road in May/August 2018, the fourth game of which was at Liverpool.
- Liverpool have the biggest difference in shots on target compared to shots on target faced in the Premier League this season (45 – 81 to 36), while only Norwich (-35) have a bigger negative difference than Brighton (-25 – 43 to 68).
- The opening goal in the last three meetings between Liverpool and Brighton in the Premier League has been scored by Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah. The Reds won both meetings 1-0 last season thanks to Salah’s strikes.
- Liverpool forward Sadio Mané has scored 17 goals in his last 16 Premier League games at Anfield. Indeed, since the start of last season the Senegalese has scored more home goals than any other player in the Premier League (22).
- Jürgen Klopp’s last home league defeat as Liverpool manager came against Sam Allardyce’s Crystal Palace in April 2017. Since then, the German is unbeaten in his last 26 Premier League meetings with English managers (W22 D4), winning the last 16 in a row.
- There are three examples of a player creating 10+ chances for a specific teammate in the Premier League this season – two of these are Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold (13 for Roberto Firmino, 10 for Sadio Mané). The other is Kevin de Bruyne for Sergio Agüero (11).
TOTTENHAM V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm The Jose Mourinho era has well and truly kicked off at Spurs! It’s been a dramatic week filled with goals. They led 3-0 against West Ham last weekend and hung on for a 3-2 win and then were 2-0 down in the Champions League midweek only to come back and win 4-2. Say what you want about Mourinho, but it’s never dull. Spurs actually had the worst clean sheet record in the Premier League this season, perhaps Mourinho can work on that given how solid his Chelsea team were. Bournemouth haven’t exactly set the world on fire recently but with Spurs so poor at the back and so good going forward, we can only see goals here. Over 2.5 goals looks good value at 1.56, Spurs are all action but at 1.4 to win the game they look a little short and overs looks the best option.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Over 2.5 goals at 1.56.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQtotbou
- Tottenham have won all four of their Premier League home games against Bournemouth by an aggregate score of 13-0.
- Bournemouth have won just one of their eight Premier League meetings with Spurs (D1 L6), though it did come in their last such game in May thanks to Nathan Ake’s 90th minute winner.
- Following their victory against West Ham last time out, Tottenham are looking to secure back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time this season, last doing so in April this year.
- Tottenham have kept fewer clean sheets than any other Premier League side this season (1), with that shutout coming against Crystal Palace in September. The last time they had kept just one clean sheet in their opening 13 Premier League games was in 2012-13 under Andre Villas-Boas.
- Bournemouth have lost their last two Premier League games, with the Cherries last losing three in a row back in December 2018 (a run of four).
- Tottenham have faced 76 shots on target in the Premier League this season, with only West Ham (77) and Norwich (83) facing more. Indeed, Spurs’ record of facing 5.8 shots on target per game is their highest in a Premier League campaign since 2002-03, when we have this data on record.
- Eight of Bournemouth’s 16 Premier League goals this season have come from set-piece situations (excluding penalties), the highest number and highest ratio (50%) in the division.
- Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored seven goals in his six Premier League games against Bournemouth, though six of those strikes came in his first three meetings with them.
- This will be Tottenham manager José Mourinho’s first home league match in charge of the club. None of the last five permanent Tottenham managers have lost their first such game (W3 D2) since Martin Jol lost 2-3 against Charlton in November 2004.
- Since the start of last season, Bournemouth’s Ryan Fraser has provided more assists than any other player in the Premier League (17).
SOUTHAMPTON V WATFORD
5.30pm We’ve been saying this for a while about Watford, but this is a massive game at the bottom of the table. 19th and 20th last met with Watford beating Norwich and we felt that might have kick started their season but after another loss last weekend they find themselves back in 20th. Southampton have had a tough run of fixtures and they put up a good show away to Manchester City, that loss would have been hard to take after the position they put themselves in, especially after the 9-0 embarrassing loss to Leicester. Watford have been woeful this season but we can’t have Southampton as short as 2.18 either. These two have been poor and they can cancel each other out, the draw is trading 3.6 and we can’t see past that.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Draw at 3.6.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsouwat
- Southampton are winless in their last three home Premier League meetings with Watford (D2 L1) – they’d only failed to win two of their first eight top-flight home matches against the Hornets (W6 D0 L2).
- The last three Premier League meetings with Southampton and Watford have finished level, with Watford coming from behind to draw each time.
- Just one of Southampton’s nine Premier League points this season has been won in home games (11%). Saints could become the first side in English top-flight history to fail to win any of their opening seven home league games in consecutive campaigns.
- In English top-flight history, only Blackpool in 1930-31 (22) have conceded more goals in their opening six home league games than the 21 Southampton have shipped at St Mary’s so far this term.
- This is already the fourth meeting between the two bottom placed sides in the Premier League this season, with the last campaign to see more such games coming in 2004-05 (5). Watford will have been the bottom side in all four of these matches.
- Watford are looking to win consecutive away league games for the first time since winning their opening three on the road in 2017-18. Indeed, the Hornets’ only league victory this season came in their last away game (2-0 vs Norwich).
- Watford have a shot conversion rate of just 4.8% in the Premier League, netting eight of their 166 attempts. It’s the lowest conversion rate in a campaign since Sunderland’s 4.7% in 2002-03.
- Southampton are without a Premier League clean sheet in eight games, since a 1-0 win at Sheffield United in September. They’ve conceded at least twice in seven of those eight games, including each of the last four – they last conceded 2+ goals in five consecutive league games in November 2012.
- Southampton’s Shane Long scored within eight seconds in a 1-1 draw against Watford last season, the fastest ever goal in Premier League history.
- Danny Ings has scored 46% of Southampton’s Premier League goals this season (6/13), including five of their last seven. No player has scored a higher share of their side’s goals in the competition this term.
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