PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s Premier League action with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats for each game. The action starts at 12.30pm with Watford v Tottenham.
WATFORD V TOTTENHAM
12.30pm It’s another busy week in the Premier League with a full fixture list this weekend and then again midweek. We have eight games to go through today and we kick off with Watford hosting Spurs. This is an excellent TV game as Watford are in great form coming into this game and Spurs are still conceding plenty of goals under Mourinho.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Watford 3.35, Tottenham 2.32 and the draw is 3.6. Things looked very bleak for Watford a couple of weeks ago but four wins and a draw from their last five league games has got them out of the bottom three. The highlight has been they have finally started scoring goals and that spells trouble for Spurs. Spurs weren’t able to beat Middlesbrough, Southampton and Norwich in their last three games and we like the away lay again here at 2.32. Watford are full of confidence and they can take advantage of the problems Spurs have at the back.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Tottenham at 2.32.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwattot
- Watford have won just one of their 13 Premier League matches against Tottenham (D4 L8), a 2-1 win at Vicarage Road last season.
- Spurs have won two of their last nine away league visits to Watford (D4 L3), picking up just a single point from their last two games at Vicarage Road (D1 L1).
- Watford are looking to win four consecutive home top-flight games within the same season for the first time since December 1986.
- Watford have won 13 points under manager Nigel Pearson (W4 D1 L1) – only runaway leaders Liverpool (15) and Manchester City (15) have won more points since his first game in charge. Indeed, the Hornets have won as many points in their last five Premier League games as they had in their previous 23 in the competition (13).
- Tottenham are one of just two sides yet to keep an away clean sheet in the Premier League this season, along with Aston Villa. Spurs have conceded in each of their last 18 away league games, their longest such run in the top-flight since April 1977 (a run of 20).
- Tottenham have lost their last two Premier League games – they haven’t lost three consecutive league games since November 2012.
- Before Nigel Pearson’s first game in charge, Watford had a shot conversion rate of just 4.8%, the lowest in the Premier League this season. Under Pearson, the Hornets have a conversion rate of 15.5%, the second highest in that time after Manchester City (18.4%).
- Tottenham boss José Mourinho was the last manager to win away from home against Watford’s Nigel Pearson in the Premier League, doing so in April 2015 with Chelsea at Leicester. Since then, Pearson has won six consecutive home top-flight games and could become the first English manager to win seven in a row at home since Harry Redknapp in 2009 with Spurs.
- Dele Alli has scored five Premier League goals against Watford in eight appearances for Spurs – against no side has he scored more in the competition (also five vs Chelsea and Southampton).
- Watford’s Troy Deeney has scored four goals in his last five Premier League games – as many as he’d netted in his previous 20 appearances in the competition.
ARSENAL V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm This is another very interesting game. What price would Arsenal have been if this was the first game of the season when Sheffield United were favourites to go down? A lot shorter than the current 1.9! Arsenal have been very poor this season, but there are signs that Arteta is improving them. It’s going to be a very long process, just like Manchester United’s situation. Meanwhile, Sheffield United have been excellent this season and they got back to winning ways in the Premier League against West Ham last weekend after a tough run of fixtures when they had to play Liverpool and Manchester City away from home. The Arsenal lay is tempting at 1.9 however with the way both sides play we feel that over 2.5 goals should be odds on and that looks cracking value at 2.04. We should have a very entertaining and attacking game between these two sides.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Over 2.5 goals at 2.04.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarsshe
- This is the first Premier League meeting between Arsenal and Sheffield United at the Emirates Stadium since September 2006, a 3-0 win for the Gunners.
- In the top-flight, Sheffield United are winless in their last nine away matches against Arsenal (D1 L8) since a 1-0 win in August 1971 with a goal from Stewart Scullion.
- Sheffield United are looking for their first league double over Arsenal since the 1946-47 season, having won 1-0 against the Gunners at Bramall Lane in October.
- Sheffield United could become the first newly-promoted team to complete a league double over Arsenal since Blackburn Rovers in the 1992-93 season.
- Arsenal have won just one of their last seven home league games (D3 L3), though it was last time out against Manchester United. The Gunners have already lost three home league games this season, last losing more at the Emirates in a single campaign in 2010-11 (4).
- Having been unbeaten in their first nine away league games this season, Sheffield United have lost each of their last two on the road. The Yorkshire side are also winless in their last 18 top-flight games in London (D7 L11) since winning 2-1 at Chelsea in October 1992.
- Arsenal haven’t lost any of their last 21 Premier League games at 3pm on a Saturday (W18 D3), since losing 1-2 at West Brom in November 2015. At home, their last such defeat was in August 2013 (1-3 vs Aston Villa), winning 20 and drawing four since.
- No side has had fewer shots on target than Sheffield United in the Premier League this season (71). However, only Liverpool (55), Chelsea (69) and Manchester City (74) have faced fewer shots on target than the Blades this term (75).
- Arsenal will be without Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in this match. The striker has scored 48% of the Gunners’ Premier League goals this season (14/29), only Danny Ings has scored a higher share of his side’s goals this term (52%).
- Sheffield United’s John Fleck has been involved in the most Premier League goals this season without a single goal or assist coming away from home (6 – 4 goals, 2 assists all at Bramall Lane).
BRIGHTON V ASTON VILLA
3pm This is a massive game for both sides. Aston Villa might be in the bottom three, but they are only three points behind Brighton in 14th position and an away win would be massive for Villa. Manchester City hammered them last weekend, but it’s hard to expect anything different and it is games like this that will decide the fate of Villa staying in the Premier League. Since losing 3-0 to Watford away from home, Villa have improved their results. They managed to beat Burnley and draw with Leicester in the League Cup, while Brighton are slipping after a good start. They only have one win in their last seven Premier League and with them trading 1.69, we have to lay the home side here. We fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Brighton at 1.69.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbriast
- Brighton are winless in seven league matches against Aston Villa (D3 L4) since a 1-0 win in
the top-flight in December 1980.
- Aston Villa have already beaten Brighton twice this season, winning 3-1 in the League Cup at the Amex and 2-1 at Villa Park in the Premier League. Villa could become the third team to win twice away at the Amex in a season in all competitions, after Derby in 2013-14 and Southampton last season.
- Brighton have won just one of their last seven Premier League matches (D3 L3), beating Bournemouth 2-0 last month.
- No side has scored more 90th+ minute goals in the Premier League than Aston Villa this season (4). However, only one of these strikes has affected the result of the match – Matt Targett’s winner against Brighton in October.
- Following their 2-1 win at Burnley on New Year’s Day, Aston Villa are looking to secure back-to-back away Premier League victories for the first time since September 2014.
- Aston Villa have already won more points away from home this season (7) than they did in their previous Premier League campaign in 2015-16 (6).
- Only Manchester City’s Premier League games (87) have seen more goals than Aston Villa’s this season (71), with the Villans scoring 28 and conceding 43.
- Aston Villa are facing 18.5 shots per game on average in the Premier League this season (407 in 22 games), the most over a single campaign since Reading in 2012-13 (18.6).
- Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish has scored in each of his last three games against Brighton in all competitions, also providing an assist in the Villans’ 2-1 win in the reverse fixture. He’s scored more goals against Brighton in all competitions than he has vs any other side (3).
- Neal Maupay is Brighton’s top scorer in the Premier League this season with seven goals – however, the Frenchman has failed to find the net in any of his last five appearances.
MANCHESTER CITY V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Manchester City are trading as short as 1.12 at the time of writing, the shortest price of any Premier League side this weekend by a distance! They have shown signs that they aren’t as bombproof as they once were when it comes to backing them at short odds, and Crystal Palace did actually win their last away league game here. The reality is it’s hard to see past a home win, but Palace have been rock solid at the back this season and they can keep the scoreline respectable here. Any Other Home Win (Manchester City to score four or more and win) is trading 2.38 in the Correct Score market and that looks very short. Palace have lost just once in their last nine Premier League games and that success has come from the back – we expect Palace to keep this game tight and Any Other Home Win looks a great lay.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Any Other Home Win at 2.38.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmcicry
- Manchester City have won seven of their last nine Premier League games against Crystal Palace (W7 D1 L1), winning each of their last two.
- Crystal Palace won 3-2 against Manchester City in their last away Premier League match at the Etihad – the Eagles have never won consecutive away league trips against City.
- In their last game, Man City won by a 5+ goal margin for the 15th time in 136 Premier League games under Pep Guardiola. They had won by such a margin in just 13 of their first 734 games in the competition.
- Crystal Palace have lost just one of their last nine Premier League games (W3 D5), with the Eagles coming from behind to win (1) or draw (3) four of those matches.
- Crystal Palace could become just the third team to win away against the reigning Premier League champions in consecutive seasons after Liverpool in 2000-01/2001-02 and Tottenham Hotspur in 2016-17/2017-18.
- Man City manager Pep Guardiola has never lost consecutive home league games against an opponent before – indeed, the Spaniard has lost just 13 of his 195 home top-flight games as a manager, losing more than once against only one opponent in that time (Man Utd, twice).
- Pep Guardiola will be the fifth Man City manager to take charge of a Premier League game on his birthday – none of the previous four have won; Brian Horton (1995), Joe Royle (2001), Mark Hughes (2010) and Roberto Mancini (2011 & 2012).
- Kevin De Bruyne has had a hand in eight goals in his last eight Premier League appearances against Crystal Palace for Manchester City (2 goals, 6 assists).
- This will be Roy Hodgson’s 95th Premier League game in charge of Crystal Palace (W32 D26 L36), making the Eagles the club the former England boss has managed the most in the competition (Fulham 94).
- Man City’s Riyad Mahrez has been directly involved in 12 goals in his last 13 Premier League appearances, scoring seven and assisting five.
NORWICH V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm Another huge game at the bottom of the table. Bournemouth will be desperate to win here and put a lot of distance between themselves and Norwich at the bottom of the table. Bournemouth are six points ahead at the moment, and a home win would give Norwich some hope; but more than likely put Bournemouth in a terrible situation. Things are very tight at the bottom, and Norwich will be hoping that three points here can give them the boost they need! The home side will see this as a very winnable game – Bournemouth come here with just four points from their last 33 available and they’re on a real downward trend at the moment. They’ve also conceded nine goals in their last three without scoring and with home advantage, Norwich can get the job done here. Despite being bottom of the table, Norwich are probably playing better football than this Bournemouth side recently and at 2.3 they look worth backing.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Norwich to beat Bournemouth at 2.3.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnorbou
- Norwich won the only previous Premier League match between the Canaries and Bournemouth at Carrow Road, a 3-1 victory in September 2015 under Alex Neil.
- Bournemouth have lost two of their last 14 league games against Norwich (W6 D6), though these games are stretched across a period of 63 years (1956 to 2019).
- This is the fifth meeting between the bottom two sides in the Premier League this season – no campaign in the competition has ever seen more such games (also five in 2004-05 and 1998-99). This is the first such match this term not involving Watford.
- Norwich have won just one of their last 17 Premier League games (D5 L11), winning 2-0 at Everton in November. The Canaries are also winless in their last nine (D4 L5).
- Norwich haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 15 Premier League home games – the last team to have a longer such run in the competition were Aston Villa between December 2012-October 2013 (16 games).
- Bournemouth haven’t scored a goal with any of their last 31 shots in the Premier League; the longest current run of all sides in the competition
- Bournemouth have picked up just four points from their last 33 available in the Premier League (W1 D1 L9), winning 1-0 at Chelsea and drawing 1-1 with Arsenal. The Cherries have lost their last three league games by an aggregate score of 0-9.
- Norwich have shipped a league-high 45 Premier League goals this season. However, no side has scored fewer goals than Bournemouth so far in 2019-20 (20).
- After finding the net with five of his first eight shots on target in the Premier League, Norwich striker Teemu Pukki has found the net with just four of his last 19 such attempts.
- Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson found the net with five of his first eight shots in the Premier League this season – since then he’s failed to score with any of his 20 attempts in the competition.
SOUTHAMPTON V WOLVES
3pm Much like Watford, Southampton have been on an excellent run lately and pulled themselves away from the bottom three. They’ve been ultra-impressive lately with wins away to Chelsea and Leicester while also beating Spurs at home. They have really turned a corner since losing 9-0 here to Leicester and that was capped off when beating them last weekend. Danny Ings has been in superb form for Southampton but their real success has come at the back. They have conceded 14 goals in 12 games since that 9-0 loss, and with Wolves not exactly banging in the goals for fun recently – the home side can get the job done here. This Southampton side should be full of confidence given their recent run and we’re happy to back a home win at 2.46 which looks at least ten ticks too big.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Southampton to beat Wolves at 2.46.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsouwol
- Southampton have won three of their five Premier League meetings with Wolves (D1 L1), winning both home matches in 2003-04 and 2018-19.
- Wolves have lost their last five away top-flight visits against Southampton, a run stretching back to October 1980.
- Southampton have won four of their last five league games (D1), as many as they had in their previous 22 in the competition (W4 D6 L12).
- Only Liverpool (30) and Manchester City (22) have won more points over their last 10 Premier League matches than Southampton (20).
- Wolves haven’t lost three consecutive away league matches since March 2016 in the Championship under manager Kenny Jackett.
- Wolves have conceded the first goal in a league-high 15 different Premier League games this season, including each of the last six in a row.
- Excluding own goals, Wolves are the only side yet to have any goals scored by English players this season. Meanwhile, only Leicester (27) have had more goals by Englishmen than Southampton (22).
- Danny Ings’ 14 Premier League goals have been worth 13 points to Southampton this season – no other players’ goals have been worth more to their side.
- Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez has been directly involved in 106 shots in the Premier League this season, having 71 efforts himself and creating 35 chances for teammates. Only Kevin De Bruyne (135) has been involved in more.
- Southampton’s Danny Ings has scored in 13 different Premier League games this season, more than any other player in the competition. The last Southampton player to score in more different league games in a season was Rickie Lambert in 2012-13 (14).
WEST HAM V EVERTON
3pm David Moyes hosts his old club as West Ham meet Everton. Both sides have had very poor seasons and recent manager changes too. It’s still early days but the change in management has given both sides a boost with added points. It hasn’t been without disappointment though as Everton lost to a very inexperienced Liverpool side in the FA Cup and West Ham lost against Sheffield United last weekend. Everton are far enough away from trouble, but West Ham are in a fight to stay up – make no mistake about it. A loss here could easily put them into the bottom three. The Hammers will be pleased to have home advantage as Everton aren’t as good away from home – we definitely feel that the value is with the Everton lay here at 2.5. That price just looks too short – West Ham have been a better side since Moyes came in and with home advantage they can get a result here.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Everton at 2.5.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwhueve
- West Ham have won just three of their last 23 Premier League matches against Everton (D6 L14), keeping just one clean sheet in that run, a 0-0 draw in April 2017.
- Everton have won seven of their last 11 away Premier League games against West Ham (D3 L1), with their only defeat coming on the final of the 2017-18 season.
- When conceding at least once, West Ham haven’t won any of their last 12 Premier League games, drawing two and losing 10 since a 3-1 win at Watford in August.
- None of West Ham’s last 11 Premier League games has ended in a draw, with the Hammers winning three and losing eight of those.
- Everton have won three of their four Premier League games under Carlo Ancelotti, as many as they had in their previous 14 combined under Duncan Ferguson/Marco Silva. The Toffees are averaging 16 shots and 5.5 on target per game under the Italian, compared to 13 efforts and 4.3 on target before his arrival.
- Since leaving Everton in the summer of 2013, West Ham manager David Moyes has lost five of his six Premier League games against his former side (W1).
- Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti failed to win any of his four Premier League meetings with David Moyes in his previous stint in the competition – Moyes is the only manager the Italian has faced more than twice without winning in the English top-flight.
- No player has scored in more Premier League games without ending on the winning side so far this season than West Ham’s Robert Snodgrass (3 – D1 L2).
- Everton’s Gylfi Sigurdsson has just one goal and one assist so far in the Premier League this term, averaging a goal involvement every 788 minutes. Last term, he was averaging a goal or assist every 165 minutes for the Toffees.
- Against no side has Everton’s Theo Walcott been involved in more Premier League goals than he has against West Ham (10 – 6 goals, 4 assists). Six of these have been away from home (4 goals, 2 assists), but he’s yet to either score or assist in three appearances at the London Stadium.
NEWCASTLE V CHELSEA
5.30pm This is a nice fixture to end the day. Newcastle had a confidence boosting 4-1 win here in the FA Cup during the week, following on from their 1-1 draw away to Wolves. They are playing some solid football – they won’t have an impact on a Cup and come up short against the top sides, but they are solid enough to stay up without getting dragging into a relegation fight.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Newcastle 6.6, Chelsea 1.57 and the draw is 4.6. Chelsea played some very impressive football last weekend against Burnley; however Burnley haven’t been great this season and Cheslea have had some shock results lately. Losing to Bournemouth being a prime example. Newcastle can keep things pretty tight here without scoring many themselves and under 2.5 goals looks worth backing at 2.24. Chelsea can get the job done here but only just. It’s worth checking the prices of 1-0 and 2-0 away wins in the Correct Score market closer to kick off.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Under 2.5 goals at 2.24.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewche
- Newcastle have taken just four points from their last eight Premier League games against Chelsea (W1 D1 L6), losing each of their last three meetings in a row.
- Chelsea are looking to record consecutive away Premier League wins against Newcastle United for the first time since winning 2-0 in both 2007-08 and 2008-09.
- Chelsea have only beaten Tottenham Hotspur (29 wins) more often in the Premier League than they have Newcastle United (25 wins).
- Newcastle have lost their last two Premier League home games, conceding as many goals in those defeats as they had in their previous seven combined at St James’ Park (5).
- Despite having the joint-second highest points tally away from home in the Premier League this season (22), Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet on the road this term, conceding 19 goals in their 11 games.
- Four different English players have scored a combined 20 Premier League goals for Chelsea this season, the most on both counts in a season for the Blues since 2012-13 (5 players scoring 23 goals).
- Newcastle manager Steve Bruce has won just one of his 22 Premier League games against Chelsea (D5 L16). In home games, Bruce is winless in 10 games against the Blues (D2 L8), the joint-most games without winning against an opponent at home in the Premier League, along with Martin O’Neill against both Arsenal and Man Utd (10 games, 0 wins).
- As a player, Chelsea’s Frank Lampard faced teams managed by Steve Bruce on 17 occasions in the Premier League and lost none of those games (W13 D4); the only player to face a manager’s teams more often and not lose is John Terry, also against Bruce (18 – W14 D4).
- Newcastle’s Miguel Almirón has scored with each of his last two shots on target in the Premier League, having failed to find the net with any of his first 15 such efforts in the competition.
- Chelsea’s Willian has initiated four sequences leading to goals in the Premier League this season after winning possession back from the opposition, more than any other player in the competition.
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