PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s Premier League games with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. Leaders Liverpool take on Bournemouth in the early 12.30pm KO.
LIVERPOOL V BOURNEMOUTH
12.30pm We kick off the Premier League weekend with Liverpool hoping to get back to winning ways at home to Bournemouth. Liverpool have failed to score in three of their last four in all competitions, and the other game was a last ditch win here against West Ham who sit just outside the bottom three. Liverpool have a massive tie during the week in the Champions League, and they need to find their goal scoring touch quickly.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Liverpool 1.26, Bournemouth 14.0 and the draw is 6.8. Liverpool have an excellent record against Bournemouth, losing just once in 16 matches in all competitions. They’ve won the last five while scoring 17 goals and not conceding. Bournemouth have also been poor away from home too, and everything points to a smooth Liverpool win here. Their recent setbacks have come away from home, and they have made Anfield a fortress. We like them at 1.8 to cover the 1.5 goal handicap. This will be a nice confidence booster heading into a massive tie against Atletico Madrid here next week.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Bournemouth at 1.8.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQlivbou
- Liverpool have won their last five Premier League matches against Bournemouth by an aggregate score of 17-0.
- In all competitions, Bournemouth have won just one of their 16 matches against Liverpool (D3 L12), a 4-3 win in December 2016 at the Vitality Stadium.
- Each of Liverpool’s last five Premier League wins against Bournemouth have been by at least three goals – the only team in top-flight history to win by 3+ goals in six consecutive games against an opponent is Man City against Wolves between 1902 and 1905.
- The last 17 goals scored in this Premier League fixture have been scored by Liverpool – the only side Liverpool have scored more consecutive goals against without reply is West Bromwich Albion (26 between 2002-2011).
- Bournemouth are winless in all eight Premier League games on Merseyside against Everton and Liverpool (D1 L7); the only team to play more times without winning there are Hull City (10 games).
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 54 Premier League home games (W44 D10), with the Reds winning the last 21 in a row. Victory here will set a new outright record for most consecutive home wins in English top-flight history.
- Bournemouth have lost eight of their last nine away games in the Premier League, winning the other 1-0 at Chelsea in December. Indeed, 60% of Bournemouth’s total points won on the road this season (6/10) came in their first three away games (W2 D0 L1).
- Liverpool’s 44-game unbeaten run came to an end at Watford last time out; the Reds haven’t lost consecutive league games since September 2015 under Brendan Rodgers. Liverpool have conceded as many goals in their last two Premier League games as they had in their previous 14 in the competition (5).
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored in all five of his Premier League appearances against Bournemouth, netting seven goals in total. The only other player in Premier League history to score in 100% of his games against an opponent (min. 5 games) is Chris Wood against West Ham.
- 87% of Mohamed Salah’s Premier League goals this season have been scored at home (13/15), the highest ratio of any player to have netted at least 10 this term.
ARSENAL V WEST HAM
3pm West Ham had a much needed win last weekend at home to Southampton, it kept them out of the relegation zone but the bad news for them is that a lot of sides around them picked up points too. There’s only three points between 15th and 19th now, what a finish we’re going to have. Arsenal also have their own worries, they got knocked out of the Europa League and with them sitting in 10th, it looks unlikely they’ll see European football next season. They still have the FA Cup to aim for though. Both these sides are a bit unpredictable in regards to the match odds market – but both are also scoring and conceding plenty. Over 2.5 goals at 1.69 looks the value play in this one – West Ham have seen a tonne of goals in their recent games and Arsenal will always attack more at home. We expect a game with plenty of goal action here.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Over 2.5 goals at 1.69.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarswhu
- Arsenal have won eight of their last nine home Premier League games against West Ham United, losing the other on the opening day of the 2015-16 season.
- West Ham have won just two of their last 23 Premier League games against Arsenal (D4 L17) since a three-game winning run against the Gunners between February 2006 and April 2007.
- Arsenal have won none of their last four home London derbies in the Premier League (D2 L2), losing the last one against Chelsea. They haven’t lost back-to-back home derbies since February 2006, when their defeats were against Chelsea and West Ham.
- Arsenal have scored at least three goals in 12 of their last 16 Premier League games against West Ham, including each of their last three against them at the Emirates Stadium.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in seven Premier League games (W3 D4), the longest current unbeaten run in the division. The Gunners are also looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since August 2019.
- Following their 3-1 win against Southampton last time out, West Ham are looking to secure back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since August. However, the Hammers have lost their last five Premier League away games, last losing more consecutively between August December 2006 (8 games).
- 43% of West Ham’s total shots in the Premier League this season have been on target (122/287) – since we have this data available (from 1997-98), no team has hit a higher ratio of their total shots on target in a single campaign (Man Utd also 43% in 2018-19).
- Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored 49 goals in 74 Premier League games. If he scores here, he’ll be the 38th different player to score 50 league goals for the Gunners, the joint-sixth quickest, and the fastest since Joe Baker reached the milestone in 62 games in 1963.
- All six of Alexandre Lacazette’s six Premier League goals this season have come in home games, the highest such 100% record in the competition this season.
- West Ham manager David Moyes hasn’t won any of his 15 away Premier League games against Arsenal (D4 L11). No manager in Premier League history has ever managed more away games against an opponent without winning – the others with 15 and no wins are Moyes himself against Chelsea and Harry Redknapp against Manchester United.
CRYSTAL PALACE V WATFORD
3pm Crystal Palace fans will be pleased that Roy Hodgson has signed a contract extension this week, but they have a tough game against Watford here to worry about. Watford shocked the Premier League when beating Liverpool 3-0 last week and that has moved them out of the bottom three. Things are still desperately tight though, as Bournemouth and West Ham have the same amount of points as them. With those two both away to Liverpool and Arsenal today, a win for Watford here would be a massive boost. They have a reasonable chance of getting a result here too – Crystal Palace have scored fewer home goals than any other team this season. Games have very little action in the first half here, with Palace only scoring six times in the first half this season. We expect a very close game here and the value is with under 2.5 goals at 1.7. That looks at least ten ticks too big.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Under 2.5 goals at 1.7.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcrywat
- Crystal Palace are winless in five matches against Watford in all competitions (D2 L3) since a 2-1 win in December 2017 at Selhurst Park.
- None of the four Premier League meetings between Watford and Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park have ended as a draw, with both teams winning two games apiece.
- Crystal Palace have won their last two Premier League games, more than they had in their previous 11 in the competition (W1 D6 L4). The Eagles last won more consecutively between April-August 2018 (4).
- Watford beat league-leaders Liverpool 3-0 in their last Premier League game, ending a run of five games without a win (D2 L3).
- Watford have failed to score in a league-high 12 Premier League games this season, while only the Hornets (6) have failed to score in more home games than Crystal Palace (5). Indeed, Crystal Palace have scored fewer home goals than any other Premier League side this term (11).
- Crystal Palace have scored just six goals before half-time in the Premier League this season, with their earliest strike coming in the 21st minute. However, only Liverpool (7) and Sheffield United (11) have conceded fewer goals in the first half of games this season than the Eagles (12).
- Watford have scored 27 Premier League goals this season, but have an expected goals figure of 35.7. This means based on the quality of chances they’ve had, they’ve scored almost nine fewer goals than expected, the biggest negative difference in the league this season.
- Watford manager Nigel Pearson has lost all six of his away Premier League games in London, all with Leicester in 2014-15. Pearson has the worst 100%-losing record of any manager in away Premier League games in London.
- Jordan Ayew’s seven Premier League goals have been worth 12 points to Crystal Palace in the Premier League this season. Only Andy Johnson’s in 2004-05 (15) have been worth more to the Eagles in a single campaign.
- Troy Deeney has been directly involved in eight goals in his last 11 Premier League games (6 goals, 2 assists), though the Watford captain hasn’t scored in consecutive league matches since March 2018.
SHEFFIELD UNITED V NORWICH
3pm What a great past week it’s been for Norwich! They managed to beat Leicester and then beat Spurs in the FA Cup on penalties. Unfortunately for them, they are still four points off the 19th placed team but surely those two results will give them hope to battle hard in the run-in to hopefully stay up. Even getting back into the mix would be an achievement. They face a very tough task beating this Sheffield United side however. The home side have been excellent this season, and are pushing for European football next season – who would have seen that coming at the start of the season! Even though Norwich held Spurs midweek, Spurs have been poor in recent weeks and with Sheffield United full of confidence, it’s very hard to ignore their price at 1.7. That looks massive for a side who have been so impressive against the side bottom of the Premier League table. We have to back the home win.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Sheffield United to beat Norwich at 1.7.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQshenor
- Sheffield United have lost both of their home Premier League games against Norwich, though the games were both played during 1993.
- Norwich are winless in four league games against Sheffield United (D1 L3), losing 2-1 at Carrow Road earlier this season.
- Sheffield United are looking to record their first league double over Norwich since the 1938-39 season – this is the 28th season they’ve faced the Canaries since then.
- Sheffield United’s 27 Premier League games this season have seen just 54 goals scored (F29 A25), with only Liverpool (20) conceding fewer goals than the Blades this term.
- This will be the 20th ever Premier League match between two promoted sides with at least 12 places between them in the table (Sheffield United 8th, Norwich 20th). Only four of the previous 19 lower placed sides have won, with 20th placed Watford beating 7th placed Reading in May 2007 most recently.
- Norwich won 1-0 against Leicester in their last Premier League game, but haven’t mustered consecutive top-flight victories since April 2016.
- Norwich haven’t scored from open play in any of their last five Premier League away games, with the Canaries only goal in that time coming from the penalty spot at Spurs in January.
- This will be Norwich’s 10th consecutive and 11th Premier League match overall this season as the side starting the day bottom of the table. However, 12 of their 21 points have been won in such matches this term (57%).
- Norwich have given more minutes to players aged 21 or under than any other Premier League side this season (7026). Meanwhile, only Crystal Palace (7) have given fewer such minutes than Sheffield United (129).
- Sheffield United keeper Dean Henderson has kept nine clean sheets in his 26 Premier League games this season. If he keeps Norwich at bay in this match, he’ll be the 11th keeper to reach double figures under the age of 23, and the fourth English keeper to do so after Joe Hart, Scott Carson and Jack Butland.
SOUTHAMPTON V NEWCASTLE
3pm This is an interesting fixture. Southampton have home advantage, but they haven’t beaten Newcastle in the last five Premier League meetings. Newcastle are just outside the bubble of danger towards the bottom of the table, but they haven’t managed a win in their last five Premier League games. They are picking up some draws, but a win or two is needed to just push away from the danger – in reality they should be fine but you never know. Newcastle have failed to score in their last four league games, which is obviously a massive worry. With home advantage, Southampton can get the job done here. They had a setback when losing 3-1 to West Ham last weekend but they have been reasonably solid, much more so than Newcastle and Newcastle just aren’t in the form to get a result here. We can only see a home win and we’re happy to back the Saints at 1.71.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Southampton to beat Newcastle at 1.71.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsounew
- Southampton are winless in five Premier League games against Newcastle (D2 L3) since a 3-1 win in April 2016 under Ronald Koeman.
- Newcastle are looking to record only their second Premier League double over Southampton, only achieving it previously during the 2004-05 season under Graeme Souness.
- Newcastle have won their last two Premier League games against Southampton – the Magpies have never beaten Saints in three consecutive league games in their history.
- Only Liverpool (8) and Manchester City (5) have won more Premier League games so far in 2020 than Southampton (4). However, only West Ham and Bournemouth (5 each) have lost more games this calendar year than Saints (4).
- Newcastle have failed to score in each of their last four Premier League games; only once in their history have they gone more consecutive top-flight games without a goal (6 between October-December 1988).
- Since the start of last season, Newcastle have had more 0-0 draws in the Premier League than any other side (7), with two of the Magpies’ last four games ending goalless.
- Since the start of February, Newcastle have had 54 shots (13 on target) in four Premier League matches but have failed to score a single goal. In that time, only eight sides have had more efforts than the Magpies, though only three have had fewer attempts on target.
- Newcastle have scored a league-low 24 Premier League goals this season but have had 13 different goalscorers, meaning 54% of their goals have been netted by different players (excluding own goals).
- Newcastle manager Steve Bruce has never won an away league match against Southampton in six previous attempts, drawing two and losing four of his visits to the St Mary’s Stadium.
- No player has scored in more different Premier League games this season than Danny Ings, with the striker scoring in 14 of Southampton’s 28 Premier League games.
WOLVES V BRIGHTON
3pm Wolves have been in cracking form lately and they must be on cloud nine. They are still in the Europa League and a win against Spurs recently puts them in an excellent position for European football next season too. They have to finish the season strongly though and win games like this. Brighton are sitting in 15th, but they have been in woeful form lately and they are only three points away from 19th. They are the only side not to win a league game in 2020, and it has been their five draws that has seen them stay out of the relegation zone. As we seen last weekend though, teams are starting to win because they’re battling hard and if Brighton can’t find a win soon, they are in big trouble. We can’t see that coming today, away from home against a brilliant Wolves side. We can only see one way traffic here and the home win looks massive at 1.68. Based on current form, it looks the best bet of the weekend in the Premier League.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Wolves to beat Brighton at 1.68.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwolbri
- Wolves have never beaten Brighton in a top-flight match, drawing two and losing seven of their nine previous meetings.
- Six of the last eight league meetings between Wolves and Brighton at Molineux have ended as draws, including a goalless draw in last season’s Premier League encounter.
- Wolves have registered just a 13%-win ratio over Brighton in 31 league games against them (W4 D12 L15), their worst win percentage against any side they’ve faced more than twice in their Football League history.
- Wolves are looking to secure three consecutive Premier League victories for the first time since May 2019. Wolves have netted six goals across these two victories, as many as they’d netted in their previous seven Premier League games combined.
- This is just Wolves’ 10th Premier League game on a Saturday this season – they’re unbeaten in their last eight such games (W4 D4) since losing 2-5 against Chelsea back in September.
- Brighton are the only side without a Premier League victory so far in 2020 (W0 D5 L3). The Seagulls also picked up fewer victories (8) and points (34) than any of the 17 ever-present top-flight sides in 2019.
- Wolves have gained a league-high 21 points from losing positions in the Premier League this season, losing only six of their 19 games in which they’ve fallen behind at some point (W4 D9). The last time a side won more points from behind in a season was in 2012-13 (Man Utd 29, Tottenham 23, Everton 22).
- Brighton have won just one of their last 13 Premier League away games (D4 L8), with that victory coming at Arsenal in December.
- Raúl Jiménez’s 13 Premier League goals this season have been worth 16 points to Wolves – no other player’s strikes have been as valuable to their teams this season.
- Brighton’s Neal Maupay is the highest Premier League goalscorer this season who is yet to score more than once in a single match (8 goals). The record for this in a single season is 14 goals (Robert Pires 2003-04, Eden Hazard 2014-15).
BURNLEY V TOTTENHAM
5.30pm It hasn’t been a good few weeks for Jose Mourinho. He watched his side get knocked out of the FA Cup on penalties midweek and then have one of his players in trouble in the crowd. They’ve lost valuable ground in the Premier League and they’re also very likely to go out of the Champions League after losing their home tie. They are suffering from injuries, but they need results fast – not excuses. This is another very tricky tie for Spurs as it’s always hard to win away to Burnley. They are a solid side.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Burnley 2.86, Tottenham 2.74 and the draw is 3.4. It’s a sign of the times to see Spurs so big in the market, but you wouldn’t call 2.74 value either. Spurs have been very poor away from home and Burnley come into this game unbeaten in six. They have won four of those fixtures too. Only Liverpool have more clean sheets than Burnley this season and we expect Spurs’ problems to continue here. We’re very happy to lay the 2.74 on an away win.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Tottenham at 2.74.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburtot
- Burnley have won just two of their 11 Premier League meetings with Spurs (W2 D2 L7), though both of those wins have come at Turf Moor in May 2010 and February 2019.
- This is the 100th league meeting between Burnley and Spurs, with Spurs winning marginally more games (39) than Burnley (36) in the previous 99 games.
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last six matches in the Premier League (W4 D2), conceding just two goals in this run and never more than once in a match. They last enjoyed a longer unbeaten streak back in February 2019 (8 games).
- Tottenham have lost their last two Premier League matches, conceding 2+ goals in each defeat – they last suffered three consecutive losses back in November 2012 under André Villas-Boas.
- Only Liverpool (12) have kept more clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Burnley (11), while only in 2017-18 (12) have the Clarets recorded more shutouts in a single Premier League campaign than they have in 2019-20.
- Tottenham have conceded at least two goals in 50% of their 16 Premier League matches under Jose Mourinho (8/16) – his highest such ratio in a single stint as manager in the competition (next highest, Man Utd 24.7%).
- Burnley have conceded fewer goals via set pieces (excl. penalties) than any other Premier League team this season (2).
- Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored exactly 10 goals in each of his last three Premier League seasons and could become only the third player to net more than 10 in a single PL campaign for the Clarets after Ashley Barnes in 2018-19 (12) and Danny Ings in 2014-15 (11).
- Tottenham midfielder Dele Alli has been directly involved in six goals in his last six Premier League games against Burnley, scoring twice and assisting four. Only versus Southampton (9) and Chelsea (7) has Alli had a hand in more PL goals than versus the Clarets (6).
- Spurs manager José Mourinho has only faced Swansea City (9) more often in the Premier League without losing than he has against Burnley (8), winning five and drawing three against the Clarets.
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