San Francisco 49ers (7-6, 6-7 ATS) @ Seattle Seahawks (9-4, 7-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Seattle -10 (38)
Significant Injuries
San Francisco: CB Tramaine Brock (questionable– hamstring), CB Chris Culliver (questionable– knee), C Marcus Martin (questionable– knee), S Ray Ventrone (questionable– groin), LB NaVorro Bowman (out– knee), DT Glenn Dorsey (out– forearm), WR Stevie Johnson (out– knee), OT Anthony Davis (out– concussion)
Seattle: TE Cooper Helfet (questionable– ankle), C Max Unger (doubtful– knee), DE Demarcus Dobbs (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
San Francisco is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC West opponents
Seattle is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Seattle is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 4-0 in San Francisco’s last 4 games overall
The UNDER is 4-1 in San Francisco’s last 5 games vs. NFC West opponents
The UNDER is 7-1 in Seattle’s last 8 games vs. NFC West opponents
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back San Francisco
1. The Niners have struggled in recent weeks but the line in this game is way out-of-whack. A 10-point number in a San Francisco/Seattle game? It’s borderline ridiculous, and it speaks to the faith that bettors have in Seattle at home. If you believe that San Francisco has “laid down” on coach Jim Harbaugh then laying the points is probably the right thing to do in this situation, but using things like “motivation” as the backbone for your argument is never a good idea. There is genuine dislike amongst these teams, too, which means the San Francisco players are likely to fight tooth-and-nail. Taking the points is the only sensible play here.
2. San Francisco ranks 3rd in total defense, 4th against the run, and 7th against the pass, so they really don’t have a discernible weakness on that side of the ball. They shouldn’t have any issues limiting the one-dimensional Seattle offense, a run-heavy unit that ranks 29th in pass yards per game.
3. Is there really a significant difference between these two teams? There is less than a 2-point difference in the amount that each team averages on offense and allows on defense, and though the Niners have been crushed in the court of public opinion after their loss to the lowly Raiders last week, it’s important to remember that the Seahawks squeaked by that very same Oakland team 30-24 a few weeks ago, and that game was in Seattle while San Francisco’s loss came in Oakland. Bottom line: there isn’t a significant difference between these two teams, just as there hasn’t been for several years. The double-digit number makes this one a no-brainer.
Three reasons to back Seattle
1. The Seahawks have started playing championship-level football again, winning 6 of their past 7 games and doing so in style, with each of their past 4 wins coming by double-digits. They proved conclusively two weeks ago that they’re better than the Niners, as they went down to San Francisco and handed their division rival a 19-3 beating. Seattle has now covered in 6 straight meetings between these two teams, and based on what we’ve seen out of the Niners lately it looks like number 7 is right around the corner.
2. Seattle ranks 1st in the league in total defense (again) and 3rd in points allowed, so the group that embarrassed Denver in last year’s Super Bowl is still playing at an elite level. They should absolutely dominate the pedestrian San Francisco offense, a unit that has produced 17 points or fewer in 6 of the team’s past 7 games. The Seahawks held the Niners to just 3 points when these teams met two weeks ago.
3. The Seahawks lead the NFL in rushing offense with an average of 170 yards per game on the ground. Two weeks ago they pounded the San Francisco defense into submission, rushing for 157 yards on 34 carries, and there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to do the exact same thing this week. And if the Niners decide to gang up on the run Seattle can always turn to Russell Wilson, who has established himself as an elite player and is now miles ahead of San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick, who was considered Wilson’s equal a few short months ago.
Prediction
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