TIME FOR A NEW SEQUENCE, SHAMROCK Shamrock’s had two sequences of winning bets: 10 naps out of 16 in June and, more recently, wins and places on outsiders at 20-1, 16-1 and 12-1 (three times). What’s he up to today?
18.5 BETDAQ VALUE AT LEOPARDSTOWN: The answer is that he’s dug deep and found a horse at Leopardstown today that almost pulled it off as 3-1 favourite in the race last year. Offers today? 18.5 on Betdaq.
I’m looking for a winner on turf! That’s obvious but I’m talking about the mile handicap at Leopardstown tonight (7.20): I can find so little relevant form on grass.
If you discard the maidens Akasaka, Adam’s Return and Emily Jane, you’re looking at AW winners An Saighdiur, Casela Park, Fandango Boy (since 2008), Lord Kenmare and Solid Air, who’s also won on the beach at Laytown.
You’re left with only five out of 13 as turf winners and, from them, the stable of Ado McGuinness (Parlour) is badly out of form.
Of the handful left, I’m picking Inwood, though he’s 18.5 this morning on Betdaq. Gary Carroll wlll be anxious to redeem last year’s run on Inwood in this race when he was touched off, third, beaten two necks as 3-1 favourite.
A 5lb penalty clearly cost him the race and this duel course winner here at Leopardstown is a crucial pound lower and has had one run back with seemingly just such as race as today’s in mind. Maybe Paul Magnier’s been planning to win this one ever since that costly defeat.
With John Oxx 100% in handicaps here, I have to nap Dawariya (6.45) since his nearest market rival, Crystal Belle, is another who has yet to win on turf, though I must say that the Patrick Martin stable is buzzing.
Aidan O’Brien has had 35 runners in the last two weeks and 28 of them have been in the frame. Nantucket Bay (7.55) is apparently headed for the Ebor Handicap at York in August.
Green To Gold (8.25) makes up the trio. This time the nearest in the betting, Lady Bennett, is from a yard that simply can’t win at Leopardstown. Charlie Swan’s had 49 goes in nearly five years without his feet treading the grass of the winners’ enclosure. It’ll be a sad 50 up!
Gary Carroll tries to bring Charlie a change of fortune here but has to persuade Lady Bennett to get another quarter-mile while Green To Gold (Joseph O’Brien) has shown the stamina to streak eight lengths clear over 14 furlongs at Bellewstown.
Formal Bid has beaten Green To Gold but that was on Polytrack over 2m. Tresilian has won only on heavy ground and Monahullan Prince is 10 now. In horse terms that’s almost as old as the Dublin needle (sorry Monument Of Light), of which more another time.
NAP: Dawariya (6.45 Leopardstown)
NEXT BEST: Nantucket Bay (7.55 Leopardstown)
OUTSIDER: Inwood (7.20 Leopardstown)
DAQ TRIO: Dawariya (6.45 Leopardstown), Nantucket Bay (7.55 Leopardstown), Green To Gold (8.25 Leopardstown)