TIPPERARY: Gets the Irish racing back on the road on Tuesday and Shamrock reckons the best bet comes in the final race on the card at 4.55.
Backing any horse with form figures of 2-22 should come with a wealth warning and even more so when the horse in question has been a beaten favourite on two of those occasions.
It’s therefore natural that I want to oppose the Mullins trained Local Celebrity in the 4.55. He is favourite – but easy to back – in the BETDAQ morning market and looks worth opposing after a comprehensive thumping by Murchu at Listowel last time out in the same rain softened ground expected at Tipperary today.
If we are taking on Local Celebrity then by definition we are also taking on High Class Show who was third in the Listowel race.
There was only half a length between this pair at Listowel and yet look at the difference in the market. The value in a match between them surely has to be on High Class Show.
However, the better value might be the appropriately named MINELLA FOR VALUE who made a highly satisfactory debut when second at Roscommon and the bare form gives him something to find – the chances are he might as he will improve for the first effort and unlike Local Celebrity is likely to find that improvement.
In summary I’m against Local Celebrity and would suggest a place lay – and napping Minella For Value. My colleague DAQMAN calls it a “double whammy”.
NAP: Minella For Value (Tipperary 4.55)
PLACE LAY: Local Celebrity (Tipperary 4.55)