IT”S GOT TO BE ONE OR THE OTHER: Shamrock reckons you can’t lose backing J P McManus runners, ridden by Tony McCoy, in England today. The question ‘which one of the two’ at Folkestone is best solved by an ‘if lose’ bet.

I’m banking on the real McCoy Which is it? That Tony, who has an armchair ride on Bear’s Affair (2.00 Folkestone), has come early for one J P McManus mount or that he’s staying late for another?

Ballyclough (1.30) is in the race before Bear’s Affair, with McCoy knowing all about the Nicky Henderson runner, Tony Dinozzo, he rode to win at Fontwell in June.

Arbeo is a heavy-ground horse, if his form is fully representative, and Caulfields Venture, though not a twicer, is certainly a placer only.

Then, after Bear’s Affair, McCoy twiddles his thumbs, with no rides until the end of the day on Favoured Nation (4.00). Again it’s McManus owned, trained by Jonjo O’Neill.

This one has been waiting for top of the ground, and the Flat-bred should be too sharp for staying types like Fergall and Glenwood Present.

I shall back Ballyclough, intending – if he loses – to bet Favoured Nation with enough to cover the losses and win me the same target amount. But I shall also build in a small double: both could win.

WIN Ballyclough (1.30 Folkestone); IF LOSE, win Favoured Nation (4.00 Folkestone) and win double the two.

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