‘BALLY’ GOOD BET AT 11.5 ON BETDAQ: Shamrock takes you step by step through his reasoning for a Ballinrobe treble in the region of 272-1 at Betdaq offers this morning, with an 11.5 chance his key to the big hit.
Reach for the sky! When the trainer has scored a double on the same card in the previous year and the jockey, who landed a treble that day, has currently ridden six winners from his last 16 rides, you probably have enough ammunition for a bit each-way.
If you can add that the horse had a ‘sighter’ on the course a month ago under an amateur rider, that he has the same official rating as the favourite and that he’s a stone lower than for his last win, then Skylancer’s 11.5 on Betdaq looked pin-high value this morning for the handicap hurdle (7.20).
Let’s try and line another one up: Chapter Eleven (7.2 offers in the 8.20) beat Western Island on today’s course, giving the second 4lb. They meet today with Chapter Eleven in receipt of 2lb. and getting 10lb from the paper favourite, Riotman, who’s never won a race and his only place return was in a Point.
Or how about this one: Cumulus Nimbus (5.20) got within six lengths on the Flat of recent Group-1 winner, Timepiece, and has twice been in the frame in Listed races.
Cumulus Nimbus is 104 rated on the Flat, which is 19lb clear of Much Acclaimed, 25lb on Super Collider, 26lb on Alamanda, 36lb over In A Nutshell, 43lb on Rusty Halo, 48lb over Coxwain, 55lb on Dalkeith, and 58lb over Hey Bosco and Live Trade.
That’s not counting – in some cases – the 3lb his claimer deducts from the equation. Theoretically, he can walk through the hurdles and win for Dessie Hughes and Bryan Cooper.
Yet he’s not even favourite on Betdaq this morning: he’s 3.3 second in to the market leader, with the front horse, In A Nutshell, at better than double-your-money, which is a handy saver on your main bet.
NAP: Cumulus Nimbus (5.20 Ballinrobe)
SAVER: In A Nutshell (5.20 Ballinrobe)
NEXT BEST: Chapter Eleven (8.20 Ballinrobe)
OUTSIDER: Skylancer (7.20 Ballinrobe)
DAQ TRIO: Cumulus Nimbus (5.20 Ballinrobe), Skylancer (7.20 Ballinrobe) and Chapter Eleven (8.20 Ballinrobe)