GO TO ‘TOWN’ ON THE DRAW IN IRELAND: Shamrock fancies some well-drawn milers in the opening races at Bellewstown today. There are big offers at 18.5 and 11.0.
Are they taking the Sunrise out of us! I shall have a bet on Sunrise Song (11.0 on Betdaq for the 6.50) in stall 11 at Bellewstown today, even though the Racing Post Spotlight says she is ‘poorly drawn’.
I shall take heart from the Ten-Year Trends on the same page, which reveals that four runnings of the race have been won by high numbers and from the Bellewstown Topdraw two pages later which says High beats Low 57-41, in percentage terms.
I don’t think there’s any argument about the draw on the Bellewstown oval in the 4.45 and 5.45: low numbers have a comfy time of it on the rail.
It could mean, for instance, that Ger Lyons second string Jamming (18.5 in stall 4) will outdo the Johnny Murtagh stable pick, Kashmir Peak (in 13), though both have to give a lot of weight to my fancy, Love Is The Key (4.45), trained by Michael Mulvaney who does well with maidens here.
The low-stall pick in the 5.45 handicap could be winning for another trainer who does well on the course, John McConnell (20% strike rate), with Grainne Whale.
But I note that Ado McGuinness has just struck form with a winner, second and third from his last four runners: his front-runner Secret Hero has the plum draw, stall one.
Another who could get an uncontested lead is Quaintly (7.50). She made all at Tipperary for David Wachman, who reckons to get one winner in three at Bellewstown.
NAP: Quaintly (7.50 Bellewstown)
NEXT BEST: Love Is The Key (4.45 Bellewstown)
OUTSIDER: Jamming (4.45 Bellewstown), Sunrise Song (6.50 Bellewstown)
DAQ TRIO: Love Is The Key (4.45 Bellewstown), Secret Hero (5.45 Bellewstown), Quaintly (7.50 Bellewstown)