DAY OF OUTSIDERS AT CLONMEL: Shamrock spots Betdaq value at morning offers of 19.0, 16.5 and 16.0 in races for non-winners at Clonmel today.
O SOLE MIO: Is he alone in his lay? The paper favourite in the bumper is music to his ears. He also finds there are pointers during the day to Mind The Steps, which could make it a very short price indeed.
Something’s got to win it! It’s one of those days – just happens to be Clonmel – when you despair of a bunch of maidens and beginners.. but something’s got to win each one of those three races.
Wikaala, likely favourite in the beginners’ chase (7.50) is described in the form book as ‘on a downward spiral’ with ‘patchy jumping’. If the favourite’s on a spiral, what chance the others? Well, maybe, a value chance.
It could be Ardalan, who lost his way over fences, but could redeem himself, dropped 10lb since those days. At least he’s been second in a chase. First-time blinkers might do the trick
Auenschutze was a bridesmaid over hurdles but starts his fencing career in a weak heat. Hot Or What has won over hurdles and is a point-to-point winner. I’ll try Ardalan at 16.0 on Betdaq this morning.
In the maiden hurdle with the smallest field (6.20), Blue Ridge Lane has tried 10 times without winning yet is officially top rated. Eightybarackstreet, was second on a sound surface in only his second hurdle race.
Sun Fisher might have won at Tipperary but for falling at the last. I’ll have a back-and-lay bet on likely front-runner Mister First (19.0), very easy winner of a fast-ground point-to-point.
In the opening maiden (5.50), modest and moderate Ordinary Man has also had 10 hurdles, but his finishing second twice and running in a Grade C last time means he’s gonna be short; too short.
Again, I’ll try something that could suddenly step forward from just one previous attempt: Jack The Hat (16.5) was a pleasing fourth, not knocked about, on the debut at Kilbeggan at the weekend. He’s out again quickly while he remembers what the hurdles are for.
Like Jack The Hat, Charger (6.50) is also out quickly, after a short-head second to the useful Mind The Steps at Kilbeggan on Sunday. That gives him the beating of Hevelius on the form of that one’s CD win recently.
It all hinges on Mind The Steps who is back for more in the following race (7.20): success for Charger or Hevelius will see ‘Steps’ very short. So maybe we should get on early.
In the bumper (8.50), I shall be laying Fitzcarraldo (though I regularly watch the part of the film where Klaus Kinski puts on an Enrico Caruso record in the middle of the Amazon jungle; incredible cinema). There’s no known reason why he (‘Fitz’ not Klaus) should be paper favourite this morning.
Similarly, there’s no reason that I can see why they didn’t make Marathon Leader (8.20) favourite in the betting forecast, though it’s true that Ameretto Son seemed on the way back over CD last time.
NAP: Charger (6.50 Clonmel)
NEXT BEST: Marathon Leader (8.20 Clonmel)
OUTSIDERS: Jack The Hat (5.50), Mister First (6.20 Clonmel), Ardalan (7.50 Clonmel)
LAY: Fitzcarraldo (8.50 Clonmel)
DAQ TRIO: Charger (6.50 Clonmel), Mind The Steps (7.20 Clonmel) and Marathon Leader (8.20 Clonmel)