14.0 BETDAQ VALUE TEMPTS SHAMROCK IN THE NAAS FEATURE: Shamrock fancies a grey filly to phase the favourites in the Listed feature at Naas this afternoon. Betdaq offers this morning were around 14.0.
7.00 Naas: A high number would normally be an essential draw factor in this, unless the ground is soft, and the little forecast rain shouldn’t spoil good ground today.
It puts me off Wandering Light (in 5), whose form has been franked, and Sweet Rhythm (in 4), whose stable won the race last year. It turns me on to Eagle Canyon, Fierce Cry and Krivan.
But Dermot Weld (only a 9% strike rate) with Fierce Cry and Mick Halford (zero strike rate with 0-24) with Krivan have poor records with two-year-olds on this track. It suggests last-chance saloon for Eagle Canyon, with Aidan O’Brien scoring at a rate of 25% in Naas juvenile events.
7.30 Naas (Mimosa Stakes): Three-year-olds are five out of eight in this Listed, in which winners have already been placed first or second in a Listed and have usually attempted the next rung up, Group-3.
Invincible Ash has scored at both levels, Empowering and Radharcnafarraige in a Group-3, while Katla has had success in Listed grade. The unexposed Alanza is the obvious contender for the ‘improver’ mantle, and she should turn around Leopardstown form with Moonlit Garden.
The trouble with sprinters is that, unless they’re of the highest level, they’re in and out, as with Invincible Ash, unplaced to Radharcnafarraige at Leopardstown before winning well at the Curragh, but with Radharcnafarraige herself ‘never travelling’ next time out.
The excuses were the same – the ground – so any rain would rule them out of my reckoning.
Ballydoyle’s Empowering ‘does an Oracle’ dropping back from Classic level to a sprint but Oracle trailed in 13th in the July Cup at Newmarket’s summer venue.
The one who dropped back well from a mile last time and won six lengths is the Choisir grey, Gossamer Seed. A key to today’s race is her previous effort: she would have beaten Marvada at Limerick at a furlong less, and Marvada went on to beat Moonlit Garden and Alanza next time over today’s trip.
Yet Alanza is 3.4 on Betdaq as I write, and Gossamer Seed is 14.0. I shall take an early position in the race with Gossamer Seed. If it rains, I’ll back her again. If not, I’ll save on Invincible Ash.
8.05 Naas: A fascinating clash of Teo’s Sister, who is exactly that – Teofilo’s sister – and Cocozza, thought to be a Guineas colt, until playing up in the stalls in the Leopardstown trial.
Aidan O’Brien and Dermot Weld have virtually identical records in this race, so no help there, then. I’ll stick my neck out for Teo’s Sister, with the pair too short for a saver.
NAP: Teo’s Sister (8.05 Naas)
NEXT BEST: Eagle Canyon (7.00 Naas)
OUTSIDER: Gossamer Seed (7.30 Naas)
SAVER: Invincible Ash (7.30 Naas)
DAQ MULTIPLES: Eagle Canyon (7.00 Naas) with Gossamer Seed and Invincible Ash (7.30 Naas) and with Teo’s Sister (8.05 Naas)