NOW 8 FROM 13 NAPS: SHAMROCK moved on to a 61% current strike rate with his naps after Kaleefa won at Roscommon last night. Can he make it 9 from 14 (64%) today?
Not a bad fortnight!!! Eight winning naps – the latest of which was Kaleefa who won well at Roscommon last night.
The eight winning naps, in sequence, have been.
DIAMONDSANDRUBIES (NAP) WON 5/4
HANS HOLBEIN (NAP) WON 7/4
RADANPOUR (NAP) WON 4/5
ONENIGHTIDREAMED (NAP) WON 15/8
PATSIO (NAP) WON 9/4
POTTERS POINT (NAP) WON 11/8
FORGOTTEN RULES (NAP) WON 8/11
KALEEEFA (NAP) WON 5/6
The average SP has been 11/8 but as always BETDAQ punters normally do a LOT better than SP punters.
There’s racing from Dundalk tonight with an eight race card starting at 5.40.
When you’re on a sequence of naps it’s tempting to throw in short ones to keep the run going. But this isn’t an approach that works for me.
It’s all about getting value, an edge or as colleague DAQMAN puts it ‘overs’ (and what a day he had yesterday by the way!). However you describe it – it’s about getting prices in excess of what you consider the ‘true price’ should be.
A classic case in point would be Birdcage in the opener at Dundalk. I can’t really consider backing her at odds-on on the back of a debut third of four at Tipperary. That’s not to say I don’t think she’ll win – she is the most likely winner on what we know – but we don’t know a lot. Four of her five rivals are debutants and this is her first start on all-weather. So that’s when the odds-on looks unattractive with several question marks.
For the nap I’m going with Ostatnia in the 6.10. She is the opposite of Birdcage in that we know a lot about her. She remains a maiden after six starts but has run some good placed efforts (including here at Dundalk) and makes most appeal in a race where quite a few can be readily eliminated.
SHAMROCK’S BETS:
NAP: Ostatnia (6.10 Dundalk)
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