Sir Winston Churchill had all the warmth of breaking bones and was probably as much fun as a spaghetti hoop, but he was seldom wrong.
While it may not be the sexiest division, it appears the NFC West, for so long the little sister of the NFL poor, has sprouted a jolly fine pair. San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals are turning heads with respective 5-2 and 4-3 records.
The Niners have benefited from a coaching change over the past two seasons, Mike Singletary’s fire and brimstone contrasting sharply with Jim Harbaugh’s softer approach towards his players. Yet essentially, this is still the team that Mike built and it would be good to see him getting more credit for his legacy.
However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results….. SIR WINSTON CHURCHILL
Quarterback Alex Smith has benefited from having stability in the gameplan – he had seven different offensive coordinators in seven seasons (Mike McCarthy, Norv Turner, Jim Hostler, Mike Martz, Jimmy Raye, Mike Johnson and now Greg Roman) before reaching the playoffs for the first time under Harbaugh. He now has some measure of stability with Roman, rather than learning new offenses, new wrinkles and new techniques. Last season, Smith put up career marks in passing yards, total touchdowns (passing plus rushing), completion percentage, passer rating and interception percentage – all while being sacked 44 times, more than any other NFL player.
What Harbaugh has done is built around Smith’s strengths. Yet just like last year, the Niners are leading the charge in the NFC thanks to a punishing defence.
And while Smith isn’t putting up stellar numbers, he is looking more comfortable and doing enough to put the Niners where they expect to be. He’s getting results, although sometimes it isn’t pretty and doesn’t do to dwell on the numbers. Take for example their latest win – an ugly 13-6 win over Seattle; Smith’s stats were an underwhelming 14 completions from 23 attempts, 140 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Hardly Churchillian. But the job was done.
You do wonder if making a serious play for Peyton Manning’s services in the summer is still playing on Smith’s mind and let’s not forget the Niners also traded up in the second round of the draft last year to take Colin Kaepernick. So it is clear to many that Smith still has more to prove before he’s considered the long term answer.
While it is perhaps unfair to draw comparisons, Smith is one of the most controversial quarterbacks to play for the Niners since John Brodie, one of the purest passers in the game and one of the most intelligent field generals. But many San Francisco fans claimed that the 49ers would never win a title as long as he called their plays.
Brodie had a mercurial career. In 1966 he became the highest paid player in the history of the game at that point and his contract was a major factor on forcing the merger between the AFL and NFL. Three years later, sportswriters were saying he was finished, but in 1970 Brodie won the Jim Thorpe Award, captained an offensive team in the pro Bowl and was chosen as MVP of the National Football League. At the end of the 1973 season, after leading San Francisco to three consecutive division titles, he retired and is enshrined in the Hall of Fame.
Smith may arguably never reach those heights, although there is time. He was a first overall pick in the 2005 draft, but was plagued by injuries earlier in his pro career – he effectively missed two years with a shoulder problem – and he’s keen to make up for lost time.
Still only 28, his best years appear to still be in front of him. The fact that the Niners have stability in their coaching staff will help his progression enormously. And Smith has the character to overcome any brickbats aimed at him.
Even earning a Super Bowl ring may not be enough – but let no-one be in any doubt, I’m hopping aboard the Smith bandwagon with my sousaphone. The more I see of Smith, the more I like his leadership ability. He has all the tools and the intelligence to drag San Francisco towards the Promised Land.
So this edition of the Musical Interlude is dedicated to the Smith knockers…
The Cardinals have similarly relied on their defence and regardless of injuries, they have yet to find an offensive identity – and after a 4-0 start, they have lost their last three, including a 21-14 defeat at Minnesota last Sunday.
They have suffered with injuries, losing running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams to injury. There has also been a quarterback carousel at different stages. John Skelton gets the start again on Monday and he is 6-0 at home when starting. But the Cards’ offense is flailing badly, failing to capitalise on a defence that allowed just seven completed passes against St Louis and eight against Minnesota.
San Francisco will look to exploit the Cardinals’ run defence via Frank Gore, but they have limited options other than the bruising back and tight end Vernon Davis. Randy Moss, at 35, is not the deep threat he once was, and opposing linebackers and safeties are bracketing Davis. It could be an issue for the Niners going forward, but they are well coached and have the right personnel for a scheme that is hard to defend.
San Francisco do not have a recent history of blowing teams away, especially those with good defences, like Arizona’s. And the BETDAQ handicap line, which gives the Cardinals a 7-point start, appears a large one.
However, with little help from the running game, the Cardinals will do well to keep the chains moving regularly. They need more than reliance upon Skelton passing to Larry Fitzgerald. The Niners can put the NFC West to bed early with victory here and they should win the time of possession argument, because they can run the ball. In fact, only the New York Giants have really managed to slow them down.
The Niners are perhaps better judged by their emphatic road win in New York against the Jets – another team who have little offensive clout and a stout defence. If you take that view, the Niners look perfectly capable of winning comfortably but this is a division rivalry, so the outright BETDAQ Moneyline looks the safest bet, however.
With two good defences, it could well develop into a dour-low-scoring affair, although 37.5 points looks a little conservative. The odds that the first scoring play will be anything other than a touchdown reflect the strength of the two defences. This also means that the odds for the most likely (in percentage terms) first scoring play – a touchdown – are bigger than they perhaps should be, so I would take a shot at laying Any Other Scoring Play.
Suggestions:
Back – San Francisco – Moneyline
Back – Over 37.5 points in total
Lay – First scoring play: Any Other Scoring Play
Lay – Arizona Cardinals +7
Twitter: @simonmilham
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