Indianapolis travel to Jacksonville on Thursday night for an intriguing AFC South battle but before looking at that game in detail, there are a few things Britain’s top NFL handicapper wants to get off his chest…
Patriots and Talib a love match: You know you shouldn’t, but she’s sizzling hot and you’ve just been offered it on a plate. How could you resist? Enough of pizza.
Bill Belichick often gets accused of getting his fingers burned when it comes to offering a home to discarded players. But for every Albert Haynesworth or Chad Ochocinco failed gamble, there’s a Wes Welker (well done, Miami), a Randy Moss or a Corey Dillon.
You can now add former Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ wild child Aqib Talib to the Patriots plus column. Trading fourth- and seventh-round draft picks to Tampa for the cornerback was a very smart, low-risk/high-reward move. The Patriots’ secondary is a mess but instantly better with the former first-round draft pick.
Yes, Talib is suspended until Week 11 for using banned substance Adderall and his rookie contract also expires at the end of the season. But Belichick knows the AFC East is a weak division and there are only so many chances that New England have to go to the Super Bowl before quarterback Tom Brady retires and the Patriots sink back into mediocrity. Belichick is 60, Brady 35. The clock is ticking.
Dallas demise may be premature: Having said you could stick a fork in Dallas if they lost to Atlanta, I’m going to perhaps going to use a little wiggle room. Perhaps.
Dallas are 3-5, three games behind the New York Giants in the NFC East. But the Cowboys had the hardest strength of schedule through the first eight games.
They will be riding with the wind at their backs in the second half of the season, however, for they face Philadelphia, Washington, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and New Orleans at home, and Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Washington on the road.
It is possible they can win six of those eight and still make the playoffs with a 9-7 record.
But the bigger question is: who will be head coach next season? It isn’t likely to be Jason Garrett if they fail to make the playoffs. Even if they do, it appears that Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones has seen enough. Sean Payton is ready for a new challenge after being suspended for a year over the New Orleans bounty scandal and looks nailed on to return to Dallas.
Michael Vick isn’t the main problem: Philadelphia looked as though they had given up on the season during their 28-13 loss in New Orleans on Monday night.
Michael Vick made a few poor decisions and his confidence has ebbed – holding on to the ball too long in the teeth of a zero blitz (which means there is no safety help and there’s man coverage across the board) is only part of the problem. A small part.
Vick is an upper-tier quarterback, who is simply playing behind an injured offensive line that lacks depth and talent.
The Eagles will continue to struggle offensively and benching Vick isn’t going to help head coach Andy Reid. It may happen, because Reid has the ready-made excuse that he has to see what the Eagles really have in Nick Foles before Vick is released late this season (due to a hefty contract).
Reid is also furiously trying to cling on to his job. Dress it up any way you want (even with a big moustache), but that will be the primary reason for the change under centre.
Quarterback carousel: Michael Vick to the New York Jets. Tim Tebow to Jacksonville or Kansas City. Mark Sanchez to Buffalo. Ryan Fitzpatrick to someplace other than an NFL starting job. That’s what’s going to happen. And if it does, the lovely Diane Lane is going to be my moll. You heard it here first.
Chicago and Denver for the Super Bowl? Both teams are on the rise. But it won’t last. The window of opportunity is closing for both.
Chicago will need to re-tool their aging defence in the next draft, while Peyton Manning’s tenure in Denver looks like a Brett Favre kind of deal with Minnesota; one great season, but then what?
Manning doesn’t have the zip on the ball that he had before his neck surgery. He is getting by thanks to the greatest quarterback mind there has arguably ever been. We’d all love him to get a second ring, but the post Peyton future is a horrible thought.
Mike Sullivan getting it done: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can’t fly under the radar for much longer. So they’ve only faced the Chiefs, Saints, Vikings and Raiders in their past four games, the collective NFL equivalent of a French army.
The fact that the Bucs have scored respectively 38, 35, 36 and 42 points against these most obliging defences should come as no great surprise. Neither should the fact that Mike Sullivan, who replaced Greg Olsen, should be coordinating such a dynamic and well-balanced attack.
Sullivan helped Eli Manning to a pair of strong seasons in his two years coaching the quarterback in New York and he’s doing exactly what he set out to do in Tampa, using a balanced attack that supports Josh Freeman with a strong ground game.
What’s in a name: About that Tampa ground game. Is running back Doug Martin’s nickname of ‘Muscle Hamster’ the worst ever? His moniker holds about as much credibility as any Republican Party leader over the last six years.
The Oakland Raiders of the early 70s had some of the best. There was Snake (Ken Stabler), Foo (Phil Villapiano – a teammate, Duane Benson, had one over the eight and couldn’t say ‘Phil’. It kept coming out as ‘Foo’ and the name stuck), Dr Death (Skip Thomas) and The Assassin (Jack Tatum).
But since we dig Doug Martin, who shovelled the soil on the corpse of the Raiders’ 2012 season with a phenomenal 251 yards and four touchdowns on Sunday, we dedicate Thursday’s Musical Interlude to him…
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sky Sports HD, 1.00am
In years to come we may well look back at Andrew Luck’s performance against the Miami Dolphins and realise that was perhaps his coming out party.
We should be in no doubt that the first pick in this year’s draft is a very special quarterback.
Furthermore, there will be plenty of meetings between Luck and Dolphins’ counterpart Ryan Tannehill in the playoffs over the next decade or so. Both franchises are on the rise.
At 5-3, Indianapolis will make the playoffs this season thanks to a cupcake schedule. They still have to face Jacksonville, Buffalo, Tennessee and Kansas City, with a final game is against a Houston team who will have already locked up the AFC’s No1 seed and may rest starters.
The Jaguars may not win another game this season outside of their two meetings with Tennessee.
Their problems begin and end at the quarterback position. Blaine Gabbert has been a bust. Even adding a weapon as good as wide receiver Justin Blackmon in the draft has not helped. Blackmon scored his first ever NFL touchdown on Sunday – in Week 9!
New owner Shad Khan is a very likable, engaging and charming man. In London recently to promote next season’s clash against the San Francisco 49ers, he told me: “The season is five weeks old, so for me, as an owner, I’ve had five weeks under the belt.
“The commonality in football and in any other business like I’ve had is this: You’ve got to find the right people, give them all the resources, then you have to have to have time for a process of evaluation. I think you have to do all of those things.”
Asked what the timeframe for a process of evaluation was, he replied: “It’s very difficult. It’s all metrics.”
Which, in plain English, is marketing speak for ‘There is not a cat in Hell’s chance that I’m going to tell you anything, mate!’
He attempted, quite skilfully and successfully, to avoid the subject of general manager Gene Smith’s job security and his “gut reaction” to energise the fan base by trading for Tim Tebow.
Smith has had four years of drafts in Jacksonville and there are zero Pro Bowl candidates from any of his choices. Khan needs a change at the top and a change at quarterback.
Perhaps it is best to clean house altogether, because Mike Mularkey is better suited to a coordinator’s role than one of head coach. (A hint: San Diego head coach Norv Turner could be out of work at the end of the season).
As for Thursday night’s game, it is a division rivalry and if this can’t get the hometown fans interested, then nothing will. Not that Khan feels there is any great problem with putting a tarp across vast expanses of empty seats.
The upbeat owner said: “Right now, we are 21st in the league in ticket sales. We were 28th last year. So that is improvement.”
It’s hard to know without seeing the figures, but the eyes don’t lie. There are fewer people in the 67,164 capacity EverBank Field than there were at the start of the season.
We’re not sure how many Jacksonville fans will turn up, but those who do – and those on this side of the pond who stay up to watch on TV – deserve either a medal or a free psychiatric evaluation.
But the Jaguars do have nicer uniforms.
Jacksonville are 3-point home underdogs against Luck and company on the BETDAQ handicap. The points total line is set at 43.5.
That is slightly odd when you consider the Jags won 22-17 in Indy on September 23, the Colts letting a 14-3 half-time lead slip. But since then, the Colts have won four of five.
Maurice Jones-Drew ran for 177 yards and a score to lead Jacksonville to its third straight win in the series, but that was their sole win this term and MJD is ruled out for a third straight game through injury.
Jacksonville rank last in the NFL in total offense (254.4 yards per game) and scoring (14.6 points per game), so it is very tough to pick the hosts, even if the visitors have an emotional let-down after a bruising encounter with Miami.
Rashad Jennings has done well in relief of MJD, but the Colts appear to have fixed their run defence and Gabbert is not likely to pick apart an improving Colts’ defence.
It looks an easy call, but the dogs continue to bark in prime-time games on Monday and Thursday nights, posting a combined 13-6 against the handicap/spread (ATS) record – 6-4 ATS on Monday Night Football and 7-2 ATS on Thursday Night Football.
You never want to bet against Josh Scobee booting a few field goals, however, and it could well come down to special teams play. This could also be the last chance for the Jags to give their few fans something to shout about (before they do the decent thing and trade for Jacksonville native Tim Tebow).
I don’t see a single strategy that points to a home win, but the weight of money will be on Indy, and after the hammering Las Vegas took on NFL games at the weekend, it might be wise to go against the grain here.
Suggestion:
Back – Jacksonville +3
And don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s view on the game at betdaqnfl.com.
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 8-6
Week 8: 7-9
Week 9: 9-4
Twitter: @simonmilham
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
