Carolina Panthers @Washington Redskins (Sky Sports 2 HD, 5.30pm)
Despite winning three of their last four against the Redskins, the Carolina Panthers have never won in Washington in five attempts – but all their losses in DC have come by a combined 15 points – that’s a field-goal average margin for those keeping score.
The Redskins are asked to give up 3.5 points on the BETDAQ handicap and the points total is set at 46.
And the Redskins have the edge on the Panthers’ defence. While it is hard not to be impressed with rookie middle linebacker Luke Kuechly (just watch how quickly he diagnoses plays and flows to the ball), the running game – both Alfred Morris and quarterback Robert Griffin III – will likely be the difference-maker.
The Panthers don’t appear to have particularly good match-ups on the exterior and so expect to see Washington offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan dial up a few plays that stretch out the Panthers’ defence and a few bootlegs from Griffin.
The Panthers’ safeties do not tackle well and their cornerbacks are average, so the Redskins should be able to move the ball well – although they will need to be patient.
The Panthers have played well against good teams like Dallas, Atlanta and Chicago, and their quick-strike ability with quarterback Cam Newton and receiver Steve Smith is a worry for Washington’s similarly shaky secondary.
If their run defence holds, it isn’t hard to see the Panthers keeping this close again and they could even sneak an elusive win in the nation’s capital.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Giants (Sky Sports 2 HD, 9.25pm)
The schedule just doesn’t get any easier for the Super Bowl champions but the New York Giants can give the storm-ravaged city something to shout about by beating the Steelers.
Trend students will note that it is the Giants’ turn to win, these teams having won and lost alternately in New York on their last six meetings.
But it could be another roller-coaster for Big Blue, who have won four in a row and boast a 6-2 record, three games clear of Dallas and Philadelphia in the NFC East. But how long can their bend-don’t-break defence last? The Giants are 19th against the run (conceding 113 yards per game), 24th in yards allowed (386.5) and 26th in pass defence (273.5). They conceded 434 yards against Dallas last weekend but won thanks to intercepting Tony ‘turnover’ Romo four times.
Giants are relying on the arm of Eli Manning (right), who will be anxious to better his season-low 192 passing yards against the Cowboys, when he failed to throw a touchdown pass.
Pittsburgh’s defence represents a stiff challenge. They rank first against the pass (182.6) and second in yards allowed (274.1), but unless their aging front seven manage to get consistent pressure on Manning, the underdog Steelers – who are 36-14 against NFC teams in the regular season since 2000 – may have trouble keeping within the 3.5-point BETDAQ handicap. The Under/Over points total line is set at 48.
Pittsburgh have yet to convince that they can be trusted on the road. Their fans travel well – the 2012 team don’t. They struggled to beat woeful Cleveland, Kansas City and
Indianapolis on the road last season, and have been beaten by Denver, Oakland and Tennessee on their travels this term. In fact, they have dropped five of their last seven road games dating back to last season.
Conversely, you could argue they are starting to pick it up when it matters, finally gaining a road win with a seven-point victory at Cincinnati, followed by a convincing beating of Washington at home last week.
The Giants are due for a let-down and the storm, which wrecked parts of the best city in the world, is a ready-made excuse. While the Giants are the better team and while it’s tough to rely on the Steelers away from Heinz Field, they tend to play up or down to their opposition. This extra half-point may prove crucial.
Steel in the swamps of Jersey? Sounds like an apt cue for The Boss…
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons (C4, Monday, 1.25am)
Having dropped to 3-4 and three games behind the New York Giants in the NFC East, Dallas will try to play the role of spoiler when they visit the unbeaten Atlanta Falcons.
The Cowboys have alternated wins and losses on each of the last six trips to Atlanta, winning on their last trip in 2006, but they have lost three of four games since a promising 2-1 start.
Dallas would be more efficient if they could just hang onto the oblate spheroid; they committed six turnovers in defeat by the New York Giants (four interceptions and two fumbles) and quarterback Tony Romo leads the NFL with 13 interceptions this season. He has been picked off 10 times in the last four games.
But, as the Giants showed last weekend, you can win with defence and the Cowboys’ defensive backfield is third in passing yards allowed (187.7). The Falcons have not run the ball with any great authority this season and this could be a problem down the line.
Dallas has significant injuries to contend with, notably middle linebacker Dan Connor, who replaced starter Sean Lee in the starting line-up; he stretched nerves in his neck last week and while he is expected to play, it is a concern, especially if the Falcons turn to Michael Turner and the ground game. Top receiver Dez Bryant has also missed training time this week.
Yet we should not expect Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr to get beaten like protesters on the streets of Tehran. They are excellent defensive backs and if they get safety help, they could keep a lid on speedy Julio Jones and Roddy White. How they defend tight end Tony Gonzales is going to perhaps be a bigger factor.
But the most significant injury belongs to Atlanta. Outside linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, who has made 10 or more tackles in four games this season after setting career highs with 127 tackles and four sacks in 2011, is ruled out with an ankle injury.
The best defences benefit from aggressive play-calling. You have to be proactive in attacking the quarterback, instead of sitting in a conservative zone defence, and Mike Nolan has been more aggressive than his defensive coordinator predecessor Brian Van Gorder.
Atlanta’s 7-0 start is even more impressive when you consider they have managed to play solid defence without cornerback Brent Grimes, who was lost for the season with an Achilles injury in Week 1. While Dunta Robinson has been relatively assured at the right cornerback spot, the loss of Weatherspoon severely limits what Nolan can do. The lack of defensive depth could begin to be a factor for the Falcons, as we suspected at the start of the season.
It is an intriguing clash and while the pressure is off Atlanta, Dallas simply cannot afford to lose. If they don’t leave it all on the field here, you can stick a fork in them. It could be a barn-burner and the points might be worth having on your side.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
This Cleveland Browns team, which hasn’t enjoyed a sustained run of success since—and I am not making this up—1989, has actually been built for the long haul. Trent Richardson could put the ball in his arms and carry the Browns on his back, yet this is still a very young and inexperienced team, one that should not be able to stop the Baltimore Ravens from gaining their tenth consecutive victory over the impotent Browns.
Baltimore’s struggling front seven will be at pains to stop Richardson but they are conceding a hefty 142.9 yards per game on the ground, in large part due to the loss of Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis through injury.
While it was a shock to see the Browns beat the San Diego Chargers 7-6 (despite the handicap line of just a point being a major warning flag), the weather clearly hampered the Chargers’ passing game. Baltimore’s attack is more balanced – they can run the ball very efficiently Ray Rice.
Worryingly, like Pittsburgh, the NFC North front-runners have yet to put together a complete game away from M&T Back Stadium, losing at Philadelphia and being thrashed at Houston, with an unconvincing 9-6 win at Kansas City in between.
They are coming here off a bye, however, so should be rested and ready to cover a 3.5-point BETDAQ handicap in a relatively low-scoring contest.
Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans
The 3.5-point handicap in favour of the Chicago Bears is another line that begs the question: what do the Vegas odds-makers know that an unsuspecting public does not? The Bears should be heavier jollies in spite of a fortunate win over Carolina last weekend.
Or should they? How is that Brandon Marshall trade working out? Along with running back Matt Forte and quarterback Jay Cutler, Chicago rank 26th in total yards (319.6 per game) and 30th in passing (195.6 per game). It is the defence that has carried the Bears to a 6-1 record. No fewer than 41 of the team’s 185 points have come from their defence.
But Tennessee should be just what the doctor ordered for Cutler and company, as the Titans (3-5) who rank 30th in total defence (421.2 yards per game) and 31st in scoring defence (32.1 ppg). Given that the Bears are allowing just 14.3 points per game, the Titans should find life much tougher this week than they did when facing the Colts last week. Expect a similar outcome, too – a win for the road team.
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts
There has been plenty of money for the Colts this week. A line that opened at 3 points in favour of the Dolphins, moved to the current 1-point BETDAQ handicap on Thursday.
Regardless, Miami look the stronger of the respective 4-3 teams and their offensive line should dominate the lighter Colts’ defensive line.
Miami have been outgained by their last three opponents, but have managed to win each time. Their running game has been lukewarm over the past few weeks but you would expect Reggie Bush to get back on track here against the 27th-ranked run defence (137.4 yards per game).
The Dolphins may have the 29th-ranked pass defence (281 yards per game) but that stat is skewed because they cannot be run upon; they rank third against the run (allowing 82 yards per game).
The Colts are without cornerback Vontae Davis, too, so unless Andrew Luck can perform some heroics, expect the Floridians to keep the pressure on New England with their fourth consecutive victory.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders
Tampa Bay can earn their first ever win in Oakland and record the equally rare feat of back-to-back road victories. The Bucs have one of the best run defences in the NFL, so the onus falls upon a pass defence that will now do without cornerback Aqib Talib permanently, after he was surprisingly traded to New England on Thursday for a fourth-round draft choice.
Josh Freeman is looking more like his old self and the Tampa passer should not be unduly troubled by an Oakland pass rush that is relatively weak, even though the Bucs have lost influential left guard Carl Nicks, who is ruled out for the rest of the season.
Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville have remained competitive despite a 1-6 record, and they may well gain consolation against a Detroit team who invariably struggle against them.
If the defence that held Green Bay’s potent attack to 238 yards last week shows up, then the Jaguars have a shot at avoiding a fourth-straight home defeat.
While not a great fan of either head coach Mike Mularkey or GM Gene Smith – who made another questionable move trading away fourth-year receiver Mike Thomas to the
Lions on Tuesday for an undisclosed draft pick – the Jaguars are creating plenty of opportunities. They are simply not executing when they should be; dropped passes are killing them. The Lions’ run defence, however, is a weakness and in Rashad Jennings, they have a player capable of keeping the chains moving. Look for Josh Scobee to have another big day with the boot and for the Jaguars to win outright.
Suggestions:
Back – Miami -1
Back – Baltimore -3.5
Back – Chicago Moneyline
Lay – Washington -3.5
Back – Pittsburgh +3.5
Lay – Atlanta -4
Lay – Oakland -1
Back – Jacksonville +3.5
Back – Carolina/Washington Under 46 points in total
Back – Minnesota/Seattle Over 39.5 points
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 8-6
Week 8: 7-9
Twitter: @simonmilham
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