After giving his Betdaq followers another winning post-season which followed-up his winning regular season, Britain’s No.1 American Football handicapper Simon Milham looks at the myriad of trading opportunities on offer for Sunday’s Super Bowl XLVII, which takes place at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans…..
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers
(Sky Sports HD and BBC Sport)
11.30pm, Sunday
Yes, this will still be the last ride for Ray Lewis. Yes, a clairvoyant camel called Princess at New York’s Popcorn Park Zoo has predicted a victory for the Baltimore Ravens by eating crackers (she has a 6-1 record). And, yes, the Harbaugh brothers are still coaching against each other in what will be known as the “Bro Bowl”, “Harbaugh Bowl”, “HarBowl” or “‘Sup, Brah Bowl”, depending on your media of choice.
The long week of players from both sides offering bland quotes in reply to banal questions is thankfully consigned to history.
It’s time to look at some trends, breakdown the stats, offer some cold, hard analysis and try and find some trading opportunities.
Trends for Baltimore
Since 1995, the higher-seeded team has covered the handicap just twice in the last 16 Super Bowls. San Francisco, the 3.5-point BETDAQ handicap favourites, are ranked No2 in the NFC while Baltimore are ranked No4 in the AFC.
And it is just one handicap win in 16 for the higher-seeded favourites, since the 2004 No.1 seed Philadelphia Eagles were regarded as seven-point underdogs when losing to the New England Patriots.
In their only previous Super Bowl season (2000) the Ravens were also fourth-seeded in the AFC, and they beat the NFC’s top-seeded New York Giants.
San Francisco have not managed to win four consecutive games all season and have conceded 30 points or more in three of their last five games.
San Francisco have not scored first in any of their games since going in front against New England on December 16.
Handicap underdogs have ‘won’ eight of the last 11 Super Bowls.
Designated away teams have won 26 of 46 Super Bowls to date. White-shirted teams have won 28 of 46 Super Bowls to date. Baltimore are the designated ‘away’ team this time.
Rest is beneficial. Since 2008, the Ravens are 11-0 in season openers and after a bye week (including Wild Card playoff bye), outscoring opponents 302-132.
The team whose metropolitan area boasts the lower jobless rate has won 20 of the past 25 Super Bowls. Through November, the 2012 unemployment rate for the Baltimore metropolitan area was 7.2 percent, compared to 8.2 percent for the San Francisco metropolitan area.
Trends for San Francisco
In their last 13 games in true domed stadiums, Baltimore are 3-10. Their lone visit to such a stadium last season resulted in a 37-7 victory over the St Louis Rams in Week 3 of the 2011 season, but their sole trip to New Orleans resulted in a 35-22 win (October 2006).
Baltimore have allowed over 30 points in three of their past seven games in a dome.
The Ravens have given up 30 points or more just 24 times in the last 12 years – but they have given up 30 points or more in five games this season (including an overtime win over Denver) and three of those have come in their last seven games.
Since 2011, the 49ers are 5-0-1 in season openers and after a bye week, outscoring opponents 188-136.
Favourites have a 33-13 record in the Super Bowl but are just 26-18-2 against the handicap. There have only been six instances where the favourite won the game but failed to cover the handicap. So if you fancy the favourite, the trends favour also backing them to beat the handicap.
Overall, the best team (as measured by regular season record) has won 25 and lost 14 Super Bowls. With an 11-4-1 record, the 49ers have the edge over the Ravens 10-6. The other seven games involved teams with identical regular season records.
Teams that allowed fewer points in the regular season are 29-16 in the Super Bowl (in 2004 the Patriots and Eagles allowed the same number of points). The San Francisco 49ers conceded 273 points to Baltimore’s 344.
Other trends
In the 17 Super Bowls since San Francisco last appeared, on only three occasions has the favoured team won and the points total gone over the Vegas line (Denver 1999, Baltimore 2000 and Green Bay 2012).
The NFC owns a 25-21 edge over the AFC in the first 46 Super Bowl matchups.
The points total has gone under the Vegas line six times in the nine previous Super Bowls held in New Orleans
The points total has gone over the Vegas line in 22 of the 46 Super Bowls.
Baltimore’s offense v San Francisco’s defence
The 49ers and Ravens carry many of the same traits – solid rushing attacks, physical defences and, of course, head-coaching brothers John (Baltimore) and Jim (San Francisco). They both have strong play from their inside linebackers, a dominant presence in the trenches, a hawking, hard-hitting tandem on the backend and most of all, a premier pass rushing specialist.
There is a school of thought that the Niners’ defence cannot possibly play as poorly as it did against Atlanta in the NFC Championship game. And they picked up their game after the interval, when Atlanta failed to score.
It is worth remembering that the Seattle Seahawks torched the Niners’ defence a month earlier and they did so with the running game. Seattle totalled 176 yards on 39 carries. Marshawn Lynch led the way with 111 yards on 26 carries, but Robert Turbin also contributed 38 yards. It was the most yards allowed this season by the 49ers’ fourth-ranked run defence.
The Niners have to respect Anquan Boldin, a potential game-changer, who has played in a Super Bowl before. They may not have the outside speed to cope with the lightening-fast Torrey Smith. And the sure-handed tight end Dennis Pitta (who has made some big catches since Jim Caldwell took over as offensive coordinator in Week 15) and his more athletic sidekick Ed Dickson (that pair is a poor-man’s Gronkowski and Hernandes) are also potential match-up nightmares for the Niners’ defence. So while the Niners may concentrate their efforts on not giving up a big play downfield, you would certainly think that the Ravens are equipped to run the ball effectively.
Baltimore have averaged 148.7 yards on the ground in the playoffs. After totalling 170 yards against Indianapolis, the Ravens followed up with a 155-yard effort against Denver’s third-ranked rush defence. They also racked up 121-yards on the ground against New England’s ninth-ranked run defence.
Running back Ray Rice, who has an impressive 247 yards in the post-season – including a 131-yard effort at Denver – could hurt them out of the backfield. You can be sure the Ravens will try and attack the 49ers’ 3-4 defence by putting Rice out wide and making one of their pass rushers cover him. And Bernard Pierce has also been influential, adding a speed element while rushing for 169 yards on 27 carries.
Baltimore’s 364 yards per game offense, ranked 11th best in the league, is led by strong-armed quarterback Joe Flacco, who can force San Francisco’s safeties into making a mistake with their aggressiveness, and make big plays downfield.
Flacco, who has six post-season wins on the road – the most in history – and eight playoff wins in five seasons, will hope that the Niners’ safeties are lured into mistakes with play-action. The Ravens will need to be able to run the ball effectively to do so.
San Francisco’s ability to stymie Baltimore’s attack would be greatly enhanced if defensive tackle Justin Smith were healthy. He will wear a brace on his left arm to protect partially torn triceps, which will require surgery once the season is over. He played with the brace in the last two games but, in reality, this is a serious injury and he will be far from 100 per cent.
Baltimore’s protection schemes are pretty basic however, so it is possible Smith will create some problems for them.
Likewise, linebacker Aldon Smith, in his first year as a starter, is capable of having a major impact. He has shown he has the ability to be one of the NFL’s best past rushers and finished the season with 19.5 sacks.
However, he failed to register a sack in the last five games and this sudden drought is a lot to do with being double-teamed, which opponents were able to do with regularity once Justin Smith was injured.
Injuries do factor into big games. You only have to think back to last season when New England were limited in the Super Bowl when Rob Gronkowski, such a biog part of their attack in the regular season and playoffs, was hobbled by a high ankle sprain picked up in the AFC Championship. Or Dwight Freeney’s ankle injury three years ago which badly restricted the Indianapolis pass rush in their loss to New Orleans.
Time for the final Musical Interlude of the season and it is dedicated to Aldon and Justin. The Smiths should have a major say in the outcome of the game – but exactly what difference and how big remains to be seen…
San Francisco’s offense v Baltimore’s defence
Will be the Ravens’ veteran defence, which is giving up 361 yards per game and ranks 21st, be fooled often enough by a dynamic attack the 49ers now feature?
San Francisco own a top-10 ranked offense to go along with their top-10 defence, averaging 375ypg on offense and 308ypg on defence.
Colin Kaepernick, who will be making only his tenth start, may not be aware of how incredibly huge this moment is, and how big this opportunity is, much like Tom Brady in his first Super Bowl. Many feel the big stage will rattle him but that hasn’t happened yet and he led his team back from a 17-0 deficit in Atlanta’s loud domed stadium to secure the NFC Championship with a 28-24 victory.
The Falcons had game-planned to deny the fleet-footed former Nevada quarterback the run, using a five-man front to cut off the outside. But that allowed the Niners to use the running game on the inside, which was easier for them than it had been for Seattle a week previously because they had a much healthier running back in Frank Gore and they often use a tight end in motion to give them an extra blocker.
Atlanta’s edge rushers did a nice job of maintaining their assignments and not allowing Kaepernick to break off on long runs. However, this left gaping holes for Gore to exploit when the Atlanta linebackers were not able to make one-on-one tackles.
Baltimore’s excellent edge rushers Terrell Suggs and Paul Kruger will have to make snap decisions as Kaepernick has learned that a quick read off the right side of his line has paid dividends.
Baltimore beat San Francisco 16-6 in November 2011, which was notable for the way the Ravens got after Alex Smith, sacking him nine times.
The San Francisco offensive line was particularly vulnerable at right guard, where starter Adam Snyder left early with an injury and Chilo Rachal struggled in relief. Alex Boone has solidified that right-guard spot this season, and all five linemen have started every game.
The Ravens still have an imposing pass rush and Terrell Suggs particularly will have benefited from a two-week break. He had three sacks in the 2011 game.
The most significant challenge to Kaepernick is the Ravens ability to get after him for 60 minutes thanks to their 10-man deep rotation on their defensive front.
But while Baltimore’s defence is known for its hard-hitting – and they will certainly challenge receiver Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis – it isn’t known for being collectively ‘fast’ and linebacker Ray Lewis, playing his final game, has struggled at times against the pass since his return from an arm injury.
Let’s not forget: Kaepernick can really run. What he cannot do is make things easy for the Ravens by committing turnovers. He will hand the ball off to Gore and he will make enough plays for the young QB to be successful.
And much like Baltimore, when the Niners’ running game works, so does their passing game. Randy Moss, Davis and LaMichael James are a pretty good fast-track team and if they get the ball in space, the Ravens could have trouble catching them.
Special Teams
If there is one glaring difference between the two, it is with their respective Special Teams units. Baltimore have an excellent return and kicking game – you would not put it past speedy Jacoby Jones (right) to break a long run on a punt return of kick-off return – while San Francisco have struggled defensively against punt returns in particular.
Niners’ Field goal kicker David Akers has been suffering a confidence crisis throughout much of the season and it is evident that Jim Harbaugh does not fully trust his kicker. Akers missed 13 times in the regular season misses and failed with a 38 yard attempt in the NFC Championship game.
In comparison, Ravens’ rookie kicker Justin Tucker has already proven his accuracy: the 23-year-old from Texas University was 30 for 33 on field goals during the regular season and kicked a game-winning 47-yarder against the Denver Broncos on the road in the Divisional round.
Trading suggestions
Neither team has tasted defeat in a Super Bowl. San Francisco are 5-0, while the Ravens are 1-0 since the franchise was born following the Colts’ departure from Baltimore to Indianapolis. Someone has to taste defeat for the first time and they are both well-matched, with similar flaws and strengths.
And while the run of underdogs covering the handicap are on an 8-3 tear in the last 11 years, San Francisco are worthy favourites and can buck a few trends. They have shown they can win in a dome and while the atmosphere at the Super Bowl is not as partisan or as loud, the ability to win in such environments is a huge plus.
The biggest concern is their ability to get consistent pressure on Flacco. If the Smiths aren’t in tune, Boldin and Torrey Smith will light up a defence that has either been found out or worn down a little in recent weeks.
Still, San Francisco have shown that they can adjust schemes when it matters and have had the character to come from behind in both playoff games.
The over/under line is set at 48.5 and given that this is a fast track on field turf, many will see this as a high-scoring affair. I’d tend to take a more cautious approach, believing that the Niners’ defence can’t play as poorly as it did in the first half against Atlanta and both teams will rely largely on their running games, trying to control the clock. So let’s plump for the Under.
BETDAQ have a wealth of props on the game and given San Francisco’s penchant for slow starts, the 2.1 currently on offer for Baltimore to score first looks excessively big.
With both defences keen to stamp their authority, the first scoring play may not be a touchdown. In any case, layers make this a warm favourite, so we side with the bigger odds on Any Other Scoring Play to be the first score.
Officials tend to be more lenient in big games and holding is rarely called. So a False Start penalty may well be the first to be flagged.
The MVP Award usually goes to a quarterback of the winning team. But if San Francisco are to win, they must get a big game from Gore and at around 8.2, he is worth a small wager. Of those who you would most expect to score a touchdown, Gore is also one of the most likely candidates.
Should the Ravens win and Lewis makes his usual amount of tackles, he will be the sentimental MVP pick for many and his current odds of 10 look a tad big.
Check out the slew of props, because there are many of them and one or two may appeal. In truth, a lot of them you simply have to guess at.
Field goals are usually longer than extra point attempts, so we think the Shortest Field Goal in the Game will be Over 24.5 yards.
Kaepernick has a habit of keeping drives alive with his legs and while he didn’t get many yards against Atlanta, he is capable of testing the Ravens’ speed and it is worth having a small bet to see him scampering for more than 43.5 yards.
With plenty of big-play capability and sure-handed receivers, it is worth backing Flacco to complete a pass longer than 41.5 yards.
Baltimore defend tight ends much better than Atlanta and as we hinted before the NFC Championship game, Vernon Davis would have a big game against the Falcons. He duly delivered. But the Ravens know that they can’t allow him the same freedom and, in any case, his blocking will be more of a factor than his pass-catching, so laying his Total Receiving Yards at 50.5 seems sensible.
Finally, may I take this opportunity to thank you for reading these columns over the course of the past five months. Fortunately, it has been another profitable season for this column, whatever happens in the finale and it has been an absolute privilege to serve.
Enjoy the game, enjoy the off-season… and good luck!
Suggestions:
San Francisco -4
Under 48.5
Team to Score First – Baltimore
First Score – Any Other Scoring Play
First Enforced Penalty – False Start
MVP – Frank Gore
Shortest Field Goal – Over 24.5 yards
Colin Kaepernick Total Rushing Yards – Over 43.5
Will Frank Gore Score a Touchdown? – Yes
Joe Flacco Longest Pass Completion – Over 41.5 yards
Vernon Davis Total Receiving Yards – Under 50.5 yards
Check out John Arnette’s views on the big game at betdaqnfl.com
Twitter: @simonmilham
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