Before we take a look at Thursday night’s Week 6 opener between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Tennessee Titans, here are a few random thoughts from Week 5…
Bill Belichick thinks like Vince Lombardi. Many observers feel New England’s no-huddle offense and their one-word play calls, which gave Denver fits on Sunday, originate from the Oregon Ducks. Instead of using complex terminology, the Patriots have, according to NFL.com, “six one-word calls like ‘Bama’ at the ready for each game”. The simplicity allows speed. It is that speed of thought and repetition through practice that keeps opposing defences on their heels.
But this is nothing new. In fact, when Vince Lombardi joined the Green Bay Packers in 1958, he did a similar thing, doing away with wordy and needlessly complicated playbooks that they’d had in Scooter McLean’s tenure. To call an end sweep in the old days, the quarterback had to recite a nonsensical lexicon of names and numbers – 49 Bill O Grace Ed, or 49 MO Grace Pop. With Lombardi, the play was just known as 49. The 4 signified the formation and 9 the hole. “Red Right 49 on 2,” the quarterback might say.
The 4 signified the formation, 9 was the hole furthest to the right sideline and 2 was the snap count.
There were fewer plays, but more options within the play. As with Bart Starr, who picked up the simplicity of the Lombardi offense in a hurry, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (pictured) has the ability to change plenty at the line of scrimmage.
It just goes to prove that nothing is new in the NFL – it’s just borrowed, recycled, adapted.
Bad news for New Orleans. Despite their win over the San Diego Chargers to get off the mark for the season, of the 183 teams to start 0-4 in NFL history, only one of them made the playoffs – the 1992 Chargers. What about the still winless Cleveland Browns? Well, they are still winless and still in Cleveland. Sometimes life just sucks.
Cincinnati bungles. As much praise as quarterback Andy Dalton has received over the last few weeks, the Bengals dropped to 0-4 when Dalton has 40 or more passing attempts. Part of that stat can also be attributed to the lack of a consistent running game that has evaded the team the past two seasons. The offense has converted just 7 of their last 34 3rd-down opportunities (21%). The NFL average is 39%.
Gene’s no genius. There will be a few interesting questions put to Shad Khan, owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars, when I meet him this week. Among them, why was general manager Gene Smith given a contract extension when Khan bought the franchise?
In his fourth year as GM, the Jags continue to regress and they have drafted exactly zero Pro Bowlers in Smith’s tenure.
And given that crowds are diminishing too, why didn’t the Jags go all-out to get Tim Tebow after last season?
Jacksonville is Florida Gators heartland. It is a college football city and St Tebow of Pigskin could have given this listless NFL franchise a shot in the arm. Now, we all know that Tebow can’t throw the ball, but neither can Blaine Gabbert.
Look what Timmy did for Denver last season – after a 1-4 start he led the Broncos to the playoffs and a victory over Pittsburgh. Sure, he was nothing more than a stop-gap, but he energised the fan base and his teammates.
The Broncos admitted that if the Jags had offered a third-round draft pick (which they used on a punter!), that’s where they would have sent him. Not to New York.
It would not be surprising if Tebow went ‘home’ to Jacksonville in the near future, but it will be too late in the eyes of fans, who will see Gene Smith as simply trying save his own skin.
Smith has dropped the ball too many times. So many, in fact, that we’re surprised his middle names aren’t Brandon and Marshall.
Buffalo’s defence is shakier than Shaky. Buffalo have allowed 97 points in their last two games and general manager Buddy Nix is trying to defend the indefensible, saying defensive end Mario Williams “actually plays better than people give him credit for”.
Williams signed a $100million contract and is on pace to record just 4.5 sacks this season. He was continually (single) blocked by a tight end on Sunday and has been crying about a wrist injury.
For the shaky arguments and shaky excuses, there can only be one artist for this edition of the Musical Interlude. Take it away, Shaky…
Week 6 early line moves. Philadelphia are 0-3-1 against the handicap spread (ATS) as a favourite this season and just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Perhaps that’s why the early money has come for Detroit, who were 6.5-point underdogs, but are now 5-point dogs with BETDAQ.
Underdogs are 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between Cincinnati and Cleveland. The handicap line has moved from an opening +3 Cleveland to +1 currently with BETDAQ.
Denver travel to San Diego on Monday and it is worth noting that the Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 0-4 ATS in their last four Monday night games. Perhaps this is why from an opening -3 handicap, the Chargers are currently -1 with BETDAQ.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (Sky Sports HD, 1.25am, Friday)
How poor are the Tennessee Titans? Any team that invests tens of millions of dollars into Chris Johnson to run the ball, and then call a direct snap draw play to safety Jordan Babineaux, has serious flaws.
The Titans are dangerous, because after their 30-7 defeat at Minnesota – which was much worse than the scoreline suggests – they are in a corner and scrapping for their lives.
Home teams have done well in prime time games this season, going 12-4. And heavy underdogs have covered the handicap all too often. For instance, no one gave Cleveland a chance in Baltimore and while they lost 23-16, they had the ball at the end of the game with a chance to score.
No one gave Seattle a chance at home to Green Bay and if it wasn’t for that game-winning Hail Mary Blown call, the favourite Packers would have obliged.
Last Thursday, the home-team underdog St Louis Rams upset the previously unbeaten Arizona Cardinals.
And on Monday, the awful New York Jets were 9-point dogs at home to the best team in the NFL and Houston contrived to win by only six.
Titans really should not be able to live with Pittsburgh, but the Steelers have a nasty habit of playing down to their competition, and have a difficult time of beating teams that, on paper, they should dominate. They struggled to beat woeful Cleveland, Kansas City and Indianapolis on the road last season and made the anaemic Oakland Raiders look potent in a 34-31 loss two weeks ago. The Steelers have dropped four of their last five road games dating back to last season.
Throw in the fact that the Steelers’ defence loses linebacker Troy Polamalu and LaMarr Woodley, and you can see why the BETDAQ handicap is only 5.5 points in favour of the visitors, who have lost on eight of their last 10 trips to Tennessee.
But the Titans have lost four of their five games all by at least 20 points and they will give veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck his second start following Jake Locker’s separated shoulder.
If there is any good news for the Titans, it is that Minnesota hung a season-low 30 points on their defence on Sunday.
The 2-2 Steelers, for all their road woes, are unlikely to falter here. Falling further behind 4-1 Baltimore in the AFC North would almost be an insurmountable hurdle to overcome if they have designs on reaching the postseason.
While my best bet of the week went down in flames on Monday – to cap the usual (and predicted) Week 5 tipping debacle – the Steelers should reward loyal backers handsomely here, with a scoreline in the region of 34-13.
Suggestions:
Back – Pittsburgh -5.5
Lay – Tennessee Moneyline
Back – Over 43 points in total
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Twitter: @simonmilham
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
