Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (Sky Sports HD, 6pm)
Weather: Domed stadium. Chicago can clinch a playoff berth with victory over Detroit, but they also need Green Bay to either beat to tie with Minnesota. For the Vikings, the scenario is simpler: win and they’re in.
At least Chicago should uphold their part of the equation. They are mere 3-point BETDAQ handicap favourites to beat the Lions, who have been wholly disappointing this season, winning just four games.
The handicap line looks a little low, which naturally sets alarm bells ringing. The Bears should be at least 5.5-point favourites, so buyer beware. The Lions have lost their last seven games and have won just twice at Ford Field this term, while the Bears have won four of their seven road games and were convincing winners at Arizona last week.
Calvin Johnson has eight consecutive 100-yard games and the Lions’ receiver is attempting to hit 2,000 yards for the season (he needs another 108), which would be a phenomenal effort. However, the Bears have done a great job of limiting Megatron in previous games and there is no reason to think that they won’t do so again. The nothing-to-lose mentality will last for a while until the Bears’ defence do enough to give Jay Cutler and company the ball enough times to get the job done. Either that, or Matt Stafford’s arm will eventually fall off through over-use.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (Sky Sports HD, 9.25pm)
Weather: Domed stadium. A delicious irony: The Chicago Bears need help from the Green Bay Packers to reach the playoffs. Fortunately, the Packers need to win to clinch a first-round playoff bye, which is a big advantage, as it can be bitterly cold in Wisconsin in January. Naturally, a warm-weather team or one that plays inside a domed stadium – such as San Francisco or Atlanta – would not relish the prospect of travelling to such a cold and hostile environment.
The Vikings can make the playoffs with victory and are 3.5-point BETDAQ handicap underdogs to beat the Packers. They can also get in if Dallas lose at Washington, Detroit upset Chicago and the New York Giants lose at home to Philadelphia.
Minnesota are a different team at home (boasting a 6-1 record there) but they recorded a surprising 23-6 win at Houston last week to keep their playoff destiny in their own hands.
Green Bay hammered a listless Tennessee team 55-7 at Lambeau Field last week
The Packers’ game-plan is simple enough: stop running back Adrian Peterson. They could not do so in their first meeting, as he ripped off 10 years per carry. Linebacker Clay Matthews did not play in that first meeting, but his return from a hamstring injury has solidified the run defence and they have a much better push up front now that Evan Deitrich-Smith has replaced veteran centre Jeff Saturday. The Packers are healthier than they have been all season and it should be enough to see them win a thriller. I’ve got this pegged at a two-point differential, so keep that extra point and a half on your side.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (C4, Monday, 1.20am)
Weather: 29/38f breezy. This is a difficult game to weigh up as the outcome of the Chicago/Detroit and Green Bay/Minnesota games has a bearing on this contest. Even if they lose to Dallas, Washington could still get into the playoffs should Chicago and Minnesota both lose.
The scenario for the Cowboys is easier: win and they take the NFC East division and a playoff spot. Lose and their season ends here.
The Redskins are 3.5-point BETDAQ handicap favourites to beat their NFC East rivals.
The Cowboys are healthier than in their first meeting (when they lost 38-31 on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas) with running back DeMarco Murray and receiver Miles Austin back in the team, and while they have produced some very flaky performances this season, they can be backed to win in DC.
The fitness of Washington QB Robert Griffin III is key. His sprained right knee limited his ability to run in a 27-20 victory over Philadelphia last week and he is not a pure drop-back pocket passer. His inability to move around will doubtless hamper him and the Cowboys can key in on running back Alfred Morris.
Washington have been more consistent than the Cowboys and they have momentum. The Cowboys cannot seem to maintain long drives – coming into Sunday, they had just 19 drives of 10 yards or more – and that would suggest a heavy reliance on Tony Romo for big plays downfield.
It is sure to be a hostile atmosphere but you can never rule Dallas out when their backs are against the wall. We’re waiting for a star to fall – but we may have to wait a little while longer.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Weather: 25/31f sunny. Both teams are in the playoffs but the Ravens have a chance of securing the No3 seed. That should be incentive enough for the Ravens, who could see Cincinnati let down after an emotional victory over Pittsburgh. The Bengals are not getting enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks and don’t have the ground game to take full advantage of the Ravens’ biggest weakness. This could be an easier win than the 3-point BETDAQ handicap would suggest.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Weather: 12/37f Partly sunny. Denver are a huge 16-point BETDAQ handicap favourite to beat the hapless Kansas City Chiefs, but while they are more than capable of covering it, it is worth taking two things into consideration. The AFC No1 playoff seed is still up for grabs and Denver will probably not risk Peyton Manning any longer than John Fox deems necessary.
It is a division rivalry, however, and the Chiefs may play harder than expected (okay, so we’re clutching at straws a little bit). But a few points in garbage time might keep this below the huge number, after all, the Chiefs sent as many players to the Pro Bowl as the Broncos! Really.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Weather: 19/27f Snow likely. Mark Sanchez wins the Jets’ quarterback jersey by default again but it is a stretch to see him guiding his reeling team to an unlikely victory at Orchard Park, where they have won four of five. The Bills, sans tight end Scott Chandler, will have a new head coach next season and probably a new quarterback. Still, Buffalo may well exact revenge for an opening day 48-28 defeat by their AFC East rivals – it’s just the sort of stupid thing they’d do, knowing that they need as high a draft pick as possible. Take C.J. Spiller to plough a few holes through the snow and through the Jets’ defence.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Weather: 42/54f Mostly sunny. This isn’t going to be a pretty game. San Francisco need to win to lock up the NFC West after being embarrassed by Seattle last week. The Cardinals can’t run the ball and while they do have a QB, his name is Brian Hoyer. Exactly. The BETDAQ handicap has the Niners as 16.5-point favourites and while it is a division game, don’t expect the birds to put up much of a fight.
St Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Weather: 37/43f Possible fog. Steven Jackson could be set to play his last game for the Rams and he may be a good bet to score a touchdown at any time. The Seahawks are the most dangerous team in the playoffs and should San Francisco fall to Arizona, they can secure a bye and a home game in the playoffs. The Rams will test their hosts and could keep it surprisingly close until the fourth quarter, but ultimately fall short. The BETDAQ handicap has the Rams as 10.5-point dogs and they may just keep within that number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Weather: Domed stadium. It is unlikely that Mike Smith will rest his starters and in any case, Tampa are in freefall. Josh Freeman is having one of the worst runs of his young career, turning the ball over nine times in the past two weeks alone. The Bucs’ offense, so prolific a month ago (against weak opponents, it has to be said), can’t seem to get anything going. It’s doubtful they will be able to find much joy against Mike Nolan’s unit. Expect the Falcons to win by double digits, even if the game is currently off the boards.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Weather: 23/29f Chance of snow. Cleveland are looking for a series sweep of the Steelers for the first time since 1988 and they could not have picked a better time to do the double, as Pittsburgh have lost five of six and have been eliminated from the playoffs.
The Browns are a young, hungry unit, but they could be without rookie running back/quarterback tandem Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden. The game is off the boards at present, but the Steelers look a good bet to win when those bookie chaps finally price it up.
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
Weather: 42/59f Chance of rain. Another game that is off the boards at the time of writing, but you’d have to fancy the Chargers’ defence to have an easy day against a Carson Palmer-less Raiders in what is likely to be the last game of the Norv Turner-Philip Rivers era in San Diego.
Those who follow on Twitter (@simonmilham) have had a few extra suggestions in the hours preceding NFL games – like last week’s ‘Under 50.1 total points’ in the Atlanta/Detroit clash last Saturday. These games are not included in the total ‘2012 record’ tally, however (I wish they were!). But please feel free to tweet me up.
Suggestions:
Chicago -3
Minnesota +3.5
Dallas +3.5
Baltimore -3
Kansas City +16
San Francisco -16.5
St Louis +10.5
Buffalo -3.5
Atlanta – Moneyline
Pittsburgh – Moneyline
San Diego – Moneyline
NY Jets/Buffalo Bills Under 39 points
Dallas/Washington Under 48 points
Don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s views on the game at betdaqnfl.com
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 16: 7-5
Week 15: 8-7
Week 14: 6-8-1
Week 13: 7-7-1
Week 12: 8-7-2
Week 11: 8-4
Week 10: 6-8
Week 9: 9-4
Week 8: 7-9
Week 7: 8-6
Week 6: 6-8
Week 5: 4-9
Week 4: 10-3
Week 3: 5-8
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 1: 7-5
Twitter: @simonmilham
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