MUTUA MADRID OPEN
Men’s Semifinal
Tomas Berdych (3.85) vs. Rafael Nadal (1.33)
Tomas Berdych has been playing the best tennis of his career this year, advancing to the quarterfinals or deeper in all eight of his tournaments and boasting a 30-7 overall record. He’s had trouble with Rafa Nadal in the past (like everyone else), beating the Spaniard just four times in 22 attempts, but he did pick up a victory in the pair’s most recent meeting, which came in the quarterfinals of this year’s Australian Open.
All that being said, this is Rafa Nadal on clay we’re talking about here. Yes, he did lose in Barcelona a couple of weeks ago, but he’s been brilliant this week, winning all three of his matches in straights sets despite facing three quality opponents in Steve Johnson, Simone Bolelli, and Grigor Dimitrov. He may not be the indomitable clay court monster he was a few years ago, but keen observers know that Nadal on clay is still the safest bet this side of Coca-Cola. Recommendation: Nadal at 1.33, Nadal 2-0 (sets) at 1.84
Andy Murray (2.34) vs. Kei Nishikori (1.64)
Murray is the higher-ranked player here and he’s beaten Nishikori three times in four career meetings, so some may be surprised that he’s priced as the underdog. To those who have been paying attention, though, there’s nothing surprising about having to pay for the privilege of backing Kei Nishikori, a man who is challenging the notion of a true “Big Four” in men’s tennis.
Nishikori has been red hot this year, winning two singles titles and going 28-5 in 33 matches. One of those titles came in Barcelona last week, where he lost just one set in five matches and rolled right through Pablo Andujar in the final. He’s kept it going this week, easily dispatching his three opponents, and now he gets Murray on a surface that has given the Scot problems in the past. Yes, Murray has improved his play on clay over the course of his career, but it’s clearly the surface that is most naturally challenging for his style, and in Nishikori he’ll be facing a tireless, waterbug-like opponent who will be able to chase down shots all over the court. It could all add up to a very frustrating day for Murray, though he’s talented enough to make the match competitive. Recommendation: Nishikori at 1.64, Nishikori 2-1 (sets) at 4.1
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