TENNIS: The Australian Open is in our rearview mirror and professional tennis is starting to get rolling again, which means our tennis tipster is back to follow up on a very successful 2015 campaign.
The world’s best are spread across the globe this week, as tournaments in Dubai, Qatar, Mexico, and Brazil all feature big-name talent and interesting matchups. BETDAQ has markets for all of them, of course, so we can make some money today if things go as planned. Here are my thoughts on the two biggest matches of the day, the men’s finals in Dubai and Acapulco:
DUBAI DUTY FREE TENNIS CHAMPIONSHIPS- Final
Marcos Baghdatis (4.8) vs. Stan Wawrinka (1.24) 15:00 GMT
Crowd favorite Baghdatis pulled off an upset in Friday’s semis, rallying from a set behind to defeat Spaniard Feliciano Lopez 3-6, 7-6, 6-1. It was typical a Baghdatis performance, one that featured dramatic shotmaking, emotional swings, and a frustrated opponent. Lopez caught the Cypriot by surprise with his aggressive serve-and-volley tactics early in the match, but by the middle on the second set it was clear that Baghdatis had figured out an effective strategy and he started to become the aggressor, pushing Lopez around from the baseline. It was a great win for the 57th-ranked Baghdatis, no doubt, and if you watched the way he surged in the final set, riding the emotions of the crowd, then I could see where it would be very tempting to back him today at a price like 4.8.
Be warned, though: despite being ranked 30 spots lower and entering yesterday’s match as the betting underdog, Baghdatis has had great success against Lopez in the past, besting him in 3 of 4 matches prior to Friday, including all three times they had met on hard courts (the surface in Dubai). That is not the case with today’s opponent, ascendant Swiss star Stan Wawrinka, a man who has now climbed all the way to 4th in the world rankings. Wawrinka has dominated Baghdatis in their five previous meetings, winning every time and dropping just two sets. Four of those matches have been on hard courts, and they have been getting progressively less competitive through the years. In their last two matches, for instance, Wawrinka has dropped a total of 8 games. This has as much to do with a pure talent gap as it does with stylistic issues– Wawrinka is simply a physically superior athlete, and when his head is screwed on right he’s one of the very best in the world. For his part, Baghdatis seems to know what he’s up against here, saying yesterday of Wawrinka “Yeah, he’s an unbelievable player. I think he has a better percentage of winning tomorrow.” I tend to agree, Marcos. Recommendation: Wawrinka at 1.24, Wawrinka 2-0 (sets) at 1.74
ABIERTO MEXICANO TELCEL- Final
Bernard Tomic (2.54) vs. Dominic Thiem (1.52) Sunday 03:00 GMT
Youth will be served in Acapulco later tonight, as Bernard Tomic will be playing the unfamiliar role of elder statesman in his clash with Austrian phenom Dominic Thiem. This is the first time these two young guns have faced each other as professionals, so there are a lot of unknowns here and it should make for fascinating viewing. Thiem has played the better tennis this year, with an overall record of 16-4 and a tournament title at the Argentina Open two weeks ago, but Tomic is a freakish talent who can just blow his opponents off the court if things are clicking. That’s a big “if”, though– Tomic has played some sloppy, uninterested tennis lately, losing in the second round in Ecuador two weeks ago and the first round in Delray Beach last week. That being said, he seems to be much more plugged-in this week, cruising through his first three matches in straight sets before needing to come from behind in his semifinal win over Alexandr Dolgopolov. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the Dolgopolov match, however– on the contrary, I think it’s very encouraging to see Tomic rally from a set down against someone who had given him real problems in the past, and Dolgopolov certainly had, beating him six times in nine attempts prior to Friday.
Can Tomic carry that momentum to today’s match and pick up his first tournament title since Bogota last year? I realize betting against Thiem is a risky proposition these days, but I have a feeling Tomic may be catching him at the right time here. Thanks to all his recent success and a grueling schedule, Thiem has hardly been able to take a breath over the past month, as this will be his 14th match in the last 19 days. In know he’s a young guy, but that much tennis is a strain on anybody and Thiem seemed to be showing signs of wear and tear early this week in sloppy wins over Damir Dzumhur and Dmitry Tursunov. I’m betting it catches up with him tonight in what will be the first of many showdowns between these young talents. Recommendation: Tomic at 2.54
