Well the phrase from hero to zero springs to mind after a blank week last week, but I see that as the betting Gods way of telling me to shut up bragging even when I do have a load of winners – large slice of humble pie anyone?
This weekend we have some exciting sport to look forward to though I have also decided to start researching other sports to see if I can find an edge, with snooker very much in the radar, as a betting opportunity so watch this space for updates and advice.
Before then, a quick recap of last weeks bets (i.e. a glance through my BETDAQ account) show me some appalling football results that you just could not make up if you tried really hard. Top of the table Crawley who were my saviours let me down big time with a late equaliser against Accrington Stanley, who were a lot nearer bottom than top before Saturday. Sat there with my I-pad jealously guarded on my lap I managed to get plenty on Crystal Palace to beat Reading at BETDAQ odds of 2.9 which seemed exceptionally generous – before sitting down at Selhurst Park to watch the most boring game I have seen for a long while that fizzled out to a 0-0 draw. Luckily for me (and to the annoyance of those around me), I did have a good enough signal to watch the racing on my tablet, which meant I could bet in running while watching the match out of one eye – punter’s heaven as far as I am concerned! A decent sized bet on Ecliptic, the choice of Frankie Dettori at 2.1 and 2.0 with BETDAQ sadly went astray at Newmarket when the race was won quite easily by 5.8 shot and stablemate Secrecy, but did I learn than particular lesson by the 3., 15, did I heck? Roayh was the choice of the stable jockey in this handicap but I looked again and again at travelling companion Farhh but failed to back him at BETDAQ prices of 14.5 and 15.0, only to watch Silvestre De Sousa win impressively with Godolphin landing the forecast as well, which paid a fortune. Naturally, I turned my attentions to the jumps (thus not backing 15.5 shot Yair Hill who I have followed all season) but with word everywhere that Time For Rupert was a good thing at Wetherby, so what I said to myself. With morning favourite Diamond Harry out of the race the greed factor kicked in for me and I went in again at 2.7 2.6 and 2.5 with BETDAQ, only to see him beaten by Weird Al and my day flushed down the toilet in front of my eyes.
Soldiering on like a real trooper, I did have one winning bet at Wolverhampton in the evening when Ajeeb landed the lucky last for my favourite trainer David Simcock. 2.7 may not be the best price I have ever taken on BETDAQ but at the end of a poor day by my high standards, a winner is a winner, and I stopped with a smile on my face, which came as a pleasant surprise after a shocking weekend.
This week I am hoping I don’t upset Daqman too much but with the Breeders Cup from Churchill Downs I have to get stuck in to a few gee gees. Every year I get all excited about the chances of the European raiders and each year it never quite goes according to plan but the fact is that the yanks do not have many decent horses on the grass, with dirt being their favoured surface. As I watch on the TV tonight it looks to be belting it down (would they understand that in Kentucky?) and the going is already described as yielding. That is certainly a concern and will reduce my bets accordingly (unless I win early or chase my losses of course), which is a disappointment because I had it all worked out! The step up from six furlongs to a mile was always a worry for Caspar Netscher but he was so unlucky last time out when fifth behind Crusade ant Newmarket that I cannot let him run unbacked. Kieren Fallon takes over in the saddle and 9.2 on BETDAQ or thereabouts makes him an each way option, and a good one at that.
In the Breeders Cup Mile every European will surely be screaming for Goldikova as she looks for an unprecedented fourth consecutive win in this million dollar event and with will be a sad day if she is beaten on her very last race before retiring to the paddocks. She is the class act, looks fit in her workouts, and handles any going and even at odds of 2.8 (BETDAQ), I cannot let her run unbacked.
Lastly, we have the Classic on dirt at 11.00pm our time, and more questions than answers. Will So You Think handle the dirt, will Uncle Mo stay the mile and a quarter, and why haven’t team O’Brien employed a pacemaker to make sure he doesn’t stay? I don’t see a lot of pace in the race (maybe Stay Thirsty or even So You Think) which will surely play in to the hands of Uncle Mo and with our patriotic punters happy to lay the favourite, he will certainly do for me in the big one at 5.3 with BETDAQ and likely to get larger.
Moving on to the football and I will try another accumulator (it has to come off some time) as well as three more sensible bets at better odds.
Manchester City now score for fun and there is no way I can see QPR stopping them, home advantage or not. 1.4 is not much of a start but they do look like a banker as do Manchester United at home to Sunderland (1.28), Arsenal at home to West Brom (1.5), and even Liverpool at Anfield against Swansea ((1.4). Dropping down to Division Two 1.68 for Crawley to win away looks a worthy addition, as do Morecambe away to bottom club Plymouth (2.0) for a close to 11/1 accumulator.
For the main bets I hate to say this as a blue but Newcastle at odds of 2.3 at home to Everton seem overpriced and are worthy of a couple of points. Fans may have started the season in unhappy mood after the sale of Andy Carroll to Liverpool but they sit proudly in third place, and with home advantage have to be backed with BETDAQ and the bigger the price the better.
Bolton have a good squad but are really struggling so far this season, and with moral at a low point I can see Stoke getting stuck in to them from the whistle and never giving the home team a second to settle. 3.3 just seems too tempting in the circumstances, and I have to have a point just in case my suspicions are correct.
Finally, Fulham may be getting their act together under new manager Martin Jol but they are far from bullet proof, and the 2.35 on BETDAQ as I write about Tottenham to win away is another mistake in the prices as far as I am concerned.
This week’s selections summary:
1pt win 1pt place CASPAR NETSCHER Breeders Cup 6.02 Saturday (approx 9.2 BETDAQ price)
4pts Win GOLDIKOVA Breeders Cup 10.07 Saturday (approx 2.8 BETDAQ price)
2pts Win UNCLE MO Breeders Cup Classic 11.00 Saturday (5.8 BEDAQ price)
1pt Win accumulator MANCHESTER CITY, MANCHESTER UNITED, ARSENAL, LIVERPOOL, CRAWLEY, and MORECAMBE.
2pts Win NEWCASTLE to beat Everton (2.3)
1pt STOKE to beat Bolton (3.3)
2pts TOTTENHAM to beat Fulham (2.35)
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