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ENGLAND v INDIA: Our cricket tipster The Edge previews Friday’s start of the 5th Test between ENGLAND v INDIA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.


MATCH OVERVIEW:

After an enthralling Test series, it comes down to the 5th Test at Old Trafford with everything to play for. India take a 2-1 lead into the last Test and England have a big job on their hands to level the series. England collapsed again under pressure in the 4th Test – going from 120/1 before losing Dawid Malan on that score and ended up 210 all out. Another remarkable middle-order collapse, and it just highlights that this is the weakest England batting line-up for many years. India have outplayed England in this series so far apart from when the ball seamed everywhere at Headingley, and you’d have to say the visitors deserve to win the series.

This series has had some incredible price movements, and we should have another excellent Test for trading on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Once again in the 4th Test, the draw trading decent odds on and got turned over. We are very close to the magical 3.0 on all three outcomes here with the draw a little over 3.0 and both England and India a little under. The market can barely separate the sides, but looking at the long-range forecast the weather could have a big say in this Test. I would be keeping the draw on my side until we have confirmation the forecast has changed.

The plans for each team seem straightforward. For India, they shouldn’t change much. They have outplayed England so far this series, and they can just continue bowling superbly. For England, you get the feeling that they will need help from the pitch or overhead conditions to win the Test. They need the sun out while they are batting, and the ball moving while they are bowling. Their batting is a huge weakness at the moment, and every time Root gets out early they seem to collapse. Despite all the negatives around England, we should have an excellent Test match. Hopefully the weather doesn’t take away too much time.


WEATHER AND PITCH WATCH:

This will be a Test for radar watching early. At the moment, it looks like the rain will heavily impact Day 1 and Day 2, but as the Test goes on the weather definitely improves. This is a huge positive, as when we have bad weather early it gives us more time for a result. We can make up time every day; however the over-rates have been very slow this series, and the weather is unlikely to interrupt tactics towards the end of the Test. I much prefer bad weather at the start. Usually the Old Trafford pitch gets a bit dry as the game goes on and we see spin – we might not see that here with the early rain – bowling first is certainly the best play in my view. I’d expect a “classic Test wicket” here in the sense it will start good for batting and get slower and lower as the game goes on, however you must consider that England need to win, so they will be putting pressure on the groundsmen for a seam friendly wicket.


RECOMMENDED BET:

As I said above, I’m keen to keep the draw on my side here despite the bad forecast being early in the Test. I feel the draw will always be in play here – however the draw has been in play for most of the series. It’s traded odds on three of the four final days so far, and we finished with one draw where we didn’t see a ball bowled. A lot depends on the weather and the wicket here, because I do feel the groundsmen will lean towards a seam friendly wicket for England. For those reasons, I’m happy to keep stakes very limited before the off. With all three outcomes close to 3.0, you feel it will be an excellent Test for trading. For me, India totally outplayed England in the last Test and they have bowled much better all series. With possible bad weather and England poor batting, I want to take on England here and I’m happy to lay them.

The Edge Says:
One point lay (liability) England to beat India at 2.92 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

View the market here -> https://bit.ly/BDQEngInd5


IN-RUNNING STRATEGY:

As I said above, this could be a classic Test for trading. For the first two days I’m sure the main volume in the market will focus on the draw price. At the moment, it looks like the rain will heavily impact Day 1 and Day 2 – but as the Test goes on it will improve and, at the moment at least, the final three days should be clear. That could change too, so keep an eye on the radar – we might get lucky on Day 2 for example and get plenty of overs in. As a starting point, the draw will likely trade shorter given the likely time lost and then after that when we do eventually start I would be keen to get on the bowling side as they should have good conditions for bowling.

Usually you’d probably bat first as Old Trafford because the wicket turns as the game goes on and chasing on the final day is tricky; however the forecast would suggest the bowling side will have the edge first up. I would trade the draw based on the overs lost, and then switch to the bowling side when play starts. After that during the Test, I’ll be keen to get against the England middle-order again – especially if Root gets out early – because they have been so poor this year, it seems a collapse quickly follows when Root gets out. India look rock solid however, and we could see a big score from them if they are batting in good weather conditions.