It’s been a crazy last couple of days at the Old Course but they finally have two rounds complete, and with more weather expected on Sunday and 20 guys within five shots of the lead we should be in for a fascinating two days of golf.
As you might’ve heard, the tournament will finish on Monday for the first time in 27 years, so if you haven’t yet come up with a good excuse to get out of work it’s time to start thinking. Death in the family is always a good one– nobody can really question it, and if you act distraught enough you may even get a bonus day or two from a sympathetic boss. Don’t overdo it, though– the last thing you want is someone showing up at your house with food and condolences only to find you laid up in a stupor with your degenerate friends. And keep it vague, okay? Everyone knows to stay away from giving a person’s name or relation, but questions about location, cause of death, specific times, etc. can trip you up unexpectedly (so I’ve been told). Be prepared.
After you’ve taken care of that, it’s time to turn your attention to the business at hand. Dustin Johnson stands one clear of the field but he’s made an art form out of losing Majors, so I don’t think anyone would be too surprised if someone else snuck in there and walked away with the Claret Jug. If you like Johnson, though, he can currently be backed at 3.15 at BETDAQ, making him the clear favorite despite his slim lead and the bunched leaderboard. Pre-tournament favorite Jordan Spieth (13.5) is lurking at 5-under (five behind Johnson) after a disappointing second-round 72 that featured five three-putts, while marquee names like Adam Scott (10.0), Jason Day (13.0), and Justin Rose (31.0) are all within striking distance and sure to attract plenty of action. There are plenty of others who could win this thing, though, and some of the odds for the “lesser” names are pretty tempting. Here are a few suggestions:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Danny Willett (14.5)- Just about everybody seems to expect Willett to fold, but I’m not so sure. As many of you are aware, Willett is not some out-of-nowhere flash in the pan; he’s one of the finest young players on the European Tour (currently 2nd in the Race to Dubai) and he seems to save his best golf for the biggest stages, like WGC events (3rd in the Mach Play, 12th in the WGC-Cadillac at Doral) and Majors (broke par in 3 of 4 rounds at The Masters). Plus, he obviously likes St. Andrews– I was unaware of his amateur record there prior to Friday’s telecast, when it was revealed that in Willett’s last ten competitive rounds at the Old Course he’s 40-something under par. He’s just one shot out of the lead, he’s playing a course that suits him, and he was able to rest on Saturday while guys like Johnson endured draining 11-hour days… I’ll gladly hop aboard at the current price.
Hideki Matsuyama (32.0)- We recommended Matsuyama prior to the tournament at 42.0, and after a stellar second-round 66 I think our bet is looking pretty good. These odds will shorten even more if Matsuyama gets off to a good start on Sunday, obviously, and when you consider that he’s 7-under par on holes 1-5 this week, a good start sure seems like a distinct possibility. Matsuyama already had two top-20 finishes in Majors this year and he placed 6th at the Open at Muirfield in 2013, so he should feel very comfortable where he is now and he knows how to keep it going. When putts are dropping for him he’s as good as any player in the world.
Steven Bowditch (176.0)- Bowditch won the Byron Nelson eight weeks ago and has three top-25 finishes since, most recently at the Greenbrier Classic, where he fired four rounds of 68 or better. Like many Aussies, he’s a great wind player, and his putter has caught fire this week, rolling in ten birdies through two rounds. In other words, there’s absolutely no reason why Bowditch should be saddled with such astronomically long odds, and if you’re smart you’ll throw a couple of bucks at him. This guy is a capable player who is currently being treated like an amateur in the betting marketplace.
THIRD ROUND 2-BALLS
David Lingmerth (2.06) vs. Greg Owen (2.2)
Owen is the more experienced player and he’s quietly played really well over the past few weeks, finishing 6th at the Greenbrier and 2nd at the FedEx St. Jude. Lingmerth won the Memorial last month but had missed 4 of 5 cuts prior to that, and his ball-striking stats are downright ugly this year. Recommendation: Owen at 2.2
Paul Dunne (4.0) vs. Louis Oosthuizen (1.44)
I don’t want to disrespect the amateur Dunne– he has played remarkably well over the first two rounds, tying the lowest 36-hole score by an amateur in Open history. That being said, Oosthuizen is one of the world’s best golfers and he’s clearly solved the Old Course. I was considering backing him to win the whole thing at 12.0. Is this a free money giveaway? Why yes, I think that’s exactly what it is. Those odds are short, but not short enough. Recommendation: Oosthuizen at 1.44
Marc Warren (1.92) vs. Paul Lawrie (2.3)
Am I the only one who gets the feeling that Marc Warren found something in his swing last Sunday at Gullane? His brilliant 64 that day catapulted him all the way to a tie for 4th in the Scottish Open, a stunning result for a man who seemed to be having swing issues over the first three rounds. Warren has had swing issues all year, actually, but his fabulous putting has kept him afloat. Since last Sunday at Gullane, though, he’s been a new man. I expect him to continue his march up the leaderboard on Sunday, while I’d be as surprised as everyone else if Lawrie kept it going. Recommendation: Warren at 1.92
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