THE PLAYERS: Commonly referred to as the “fifth major”, The Players Championship is the PGA Tour’s crown jewel event and generally attracts the strongest field in all of golf, as it casts a wider net than do the four majors (top 50 in current OWGR, top 125 on last year’s PGA Tour money list, and select others) and is mostly regarded as a “must play” for those who are eligible. The main attraction, if we’re being honest, is probably the massive purse, which this year sits at a record $11 million. Even at the highest level, you don’t get too many guys turning down the opportunity to play for $11 million bucks.

Si Woo Kim hit the jackpot last year, taking home the $1.89 million first place check and notching what is by far the biggest win of his young career. But it’s difficult to win this tournament in back to back years– as a matter of fact, it’s never happened in the event’s 36-year history, which probably tells us a little bit about the nature of the course, TPC Sawgrass.

Built by Pete Dye in 1980 for the explicit purpose of hosting The Players Championship, TPC Sawgrass is a place that favors neither a draw nor a fade, a place where both the “short and straight” type and the bomber compete on equal footing (case in point: Adam Scott’s win in 2004 was followed by Fred Funk in 2005. Funk is 25 years older than Scott and about 40 yards behind him off the tee). This is all by design, of course– when Dye built TPC Sawgrass he was very up front about his desire to see that the course didn’t favor any one particular style of play. It’s an unforgiving layout that can be very difficult when it dries out and the wind starts blowing, but it also yields plenty of birdies and reliably lives up to its fan-friendly reputation (lots of drama, but players aren’t struggling to make pars).

The signature hole is the island green par-3 17th, one of the most iconic holes in the world. Past champions have spoken frequently about the nervous walk from the 16th tee to the 17th green, but even if you calm your nerves and find the putting surface on 17, you still have to contend with the 18th, a long, brutal par-4 that doglegs around a lake. It’s truly a high-stress finish at TPC Sawgrass, which makes for a fantastic viewing experience.

The top of BETDAQ’s Win Market is quite crowded, as you would expect with a field this strong, and there’s no one guy who should be considered the clear-cut favorite, though Jordan Spieth heads the market at 17.0. One interesting thing to keep an eye on: depending on what happens, five players (Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, and Justin Rose) have a chance to end this week ranked No. 1 in the world. Not sure that will affect the way that any of those guys approach the week, but it underscores just how big of an event this is and how much is on the line.

Here are three names to keep a close eye on:

WIN MARKET

Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)

Jon Rahm (27.0) Rahm is hitting his stride now and seems primed for a big summer, as he followed a 4th-place finish at the Masters with a victory at the Open de Espana, where he was the only player in the field to shoot 68 or better in all four rounds. He’s one of the best iron players in the world and TPC Sawgrass is frequently referred to as a “second-shot golf course” because many of the greens are segmented and the targets are small, so I expect Rahm to have a lot of success in this tournament over the course of his career. Last year, if you recall, he was in the mix after two rounds before totally imploding with an 82 on Saturday, and indeed Rahm has proven to be a bit mercurial and is therefore more prone to meltdowns than some of his peers. But when he’s got it going he’s as good as there is in the game, especially tee-to-green, and he’s certainly seems to be in top form at the moment. I’ll gladly hop aboard at a price like 27.0.

Patrick Cantlay (56.0)- Cantlay is quietly heating up, with top-10 finishes in three of his past five events. One of those came at the RBC Heritage, which is held at Harbour Town, another Pete Dye course that has drawn comparisons to TPC Sawgrass on account of its relatively modest length and its emphasis on precision with the short and mid-irons. As Cantlay said this week, “I like golf courses where there’s a premium on putting the ball in the fairway and playing smart shots into the greens.” Well, he’ll be playing just such a course over the next few days, and he was impressive on debut here last year, finishing 22nd despite a final-round 77. At better than 50/1, he’s worth a bet this week.

Pat Perez (170.0)- Whenever you have a field this strong there are always some quality players with big, fat prices next to their names, and it’s fun to throw a couple of bucks at those long odds in the hopes of striking gold. This week’s “live” longshot list is topped by Pat Perez, a guy who’s currently 12th on the PGA Tour Money List after making 10 of 12 cuts this season and logging four top-10s, including a runner-up in his last start, the Zurich Classic, where he teamed with Jason Dufner. Perez is excellent with his short irons and wedges, making him a nice fit for TPC Sawgrass, so it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise that he’s made the cut in 4 of his past 5 appearances at this tournament, finding the top-25 on three of those occasions. A win here would be the highlight of Perez’s career, for sure, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility, and a price like 170.0 is a great value for a player of his caliber.

TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS

Tiger Woods (2.02) vs. Phil Mickelson (1.9)

Fading Tiger has been profitable over the past month, as his three-week stretch in March appears to have created unrealistic expectations. While he may be “back” in comparison to the last couple of years, when he played sparingly and many thought his career might be over, he’s certainly not one of the best players in the world at the moment and should be treated with caution this week at a place he has historically disliked. Mickelson has had his share of struggles at TPC Sawgrass as well (though both he and Woods have won here), but he’s simply better than Tiger at this point in their respective careers and he’s coming off a 5th-place showing at the Wells Fargo, so we know he’s in good form. Recommendation: Mickelson at 1.9

Jason Day (1.9) vs. Rory McIlroy (1.96)

Fowler won this event in 2015 but has a MC and a T60 in his last two appearances, so TPC Sawgrass has proven to be feast or famine for him. McIlroy has also had his ups and down in this tournament, but in recent years they’ve almost all been ups: he’s found the top-15 in four of his past five starts here, and his stroke average over that span (70.55) is second-best among all players who have logged at least 10 rounds. And here’s another interesting nugget, courtesy of Golf Channel senior researcher Justin Ray: over the past five years McIlroy is 37-under on the back nine at TPC Sawgrass, which is an astonishing 15 shots better than any other player in that span. It’s like he figured out how to play the golf course… and with form figures of 1-5-16 heading into this week, I know I’m not betting against him. Recommendation: McIlroy at 1.96