FRIDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Friday’s Premier League game between BRENTFORD v WATFORD with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
BRENTFORD V WATFORD
8pm Friday Night Football returns in the Premier League this week as Brentford host Watford. This is a very interesting fixture from a betting point of view, and no doubt we will have some very different opinions on the prices on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Brentford come into the game as 2.2 favourites, however despite losing their last three games Watford have actually been playing pretty good football lately. They have had a tough fixture list having had to play Chelsea and Man City, but they finished their game against Leicester with a bigger xG figure and they could have easily got a draw against Chelsea.
Brentford come into the game with only one win from their last eight Premier League games. They started the season very strongly but they have been slipping down the table since. They are playing well enough and they enough of a cushion not to worry about the relegation fight at the moment, but it would be nice for them to just pick up a few points over Christmas and really lock in that mid-table position. They have been unlucky at times in that eight game run, but their last four performances have been average.
Perhaps the 2-1 loss here to Norwich knocked their confidence a little, but they were desperately unlucky to lose that game – they finished with an xG of 2.92. They were also unlucky to lose here against Leicester and Chelsea, both times finishing with a higher xG – they actually bossed the Chelsea game – the xG figure finished 2.16 to 0.31 to Brentford! If you look at their home games, they’ve actually had a very tough schedule. They’ve already hosted Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Leicester and Everton so they have the points they have from those games is pretty impressive.
What makes this game interesting from a betting point of view is that while Watford come into this game on a losing run and sitting just outside the relegation zone, if you look under the hood they are actually playing quite well. They have beaten Everton and Manchester United recently, but they could have easily drawn with Southampton and Chelsea, along with beating Leicester. As I said above, the xG figures from the Chelsea game were very even (0.94 to 0.93) and then they finished the Leicester game with an xG of 3.05.
The Brentford lay is a tempting bet at 2.2 – I do expect a closer game than those odds suggest. However, it’s hard to look past over 2.5 goals here at 2.04. Looking through the xG figures from both sides, you can clearly see they like to play an attacking brand of football and I can see them coming together to create a very entertaining game. I can see Watford scoring, and perhaps the Brentford lay is a good in-play trading option but we should see goals here – I would have overs odds on.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBrewat
● Brentford’s 2-0 win against Watford in this fixture in the Championship last season ended a 13-game winless league run for the Bees against the Hornets, that stretched back to 1977 (D5 L8).
● This will be the first ever top-flight meeting between Brentford and Watford, with the two sides having already previously met in the second, third and fourth tiers of English football.
● Watford will be just the second side that Brentford have faced in each of the top four divisions of English league football, as well as both major domestic cup competitions, after Brighton and Hove Albion.
● Brentford are unbeaten in their last eight league games played on a Friday (W6 D2) since a 2-0 home loss to Fulham in November 2016. The Bees’ first ever Premier League game was a 2-0 victory over Arsenal, played on the opening Friday of this campaign.
● This is Watford’s fifth Premier League game played on a Friday, with all of them coming away from home (W2 L2 so far). The Hornets’ biggest away win in the competition came in a Friday match, 5-1 at Cardiff in February 2019.
● Four of the last six Premier League meetings between newly promoted sides have been won by the away team, including both such fixtures so far this season (Watford winning at Norwich and Norwich winning at Brentford) – prior to this, the away side had won just three of the previous 38 such matches in the competition (D10 L25).
● Watford are the only team yet to keep a clean sheet in the Premier League this season, while the Hornets have conceded more Premier League goals than any other side since Claudio Ranieri’s first game in charge (19).
● Brentford’s first eight home Premier League goals have all been scored by different players (Canós, Nørgaard, Pinnock, Janelt, Wissa, Zanka, Henry & Toney), only the third team in Premier League history to achieve that, after Liverpool (first nine) and Wimbledon (first nine), both in 1992.
● Since a 1-1 draw against Chelsea with Leicester when the Foxes were already Premier League champions in their last match of 2015-16, Claudio Ranieri has picked up just seven points in 24 away Premier League matches as a manager, across spells with Leicester, Fulham and Watford (W1 D4 L19), an average of 0.29 points per game on the road.
● Watford’s Josh King has been directly involved in nine goals in his last nine away starts in the Premier League (6 goals, 3 assists), although the Norwegian has only found the net in two of his 26 away appearances in London, scoring against Crystal Palace in 2016 and 2019 for Bournemouth.