PREMIER LEAGUE FRIDAY: The Striker looks ahead to CHELSEA v FULHAM with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CHELSEA V FULHAM
8pm We have Friday Night Football this week from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as Chelsea host Fulham. The sides met very recently in the Premier League and Fulham ran out 2-1 winners. Chelsea would have felt unlucky though because they finished the game with an xG of 2.74. It was an important London Derby for Chelsea then, and it’s just as important now because they start this matchday sitting down in tenth. Fulham, who were spoken about as being in a relegation battle at the start of the season, are going to kick off this game sitting ahead of Chelsea in the table.
Fulham fans must be absolutely buzzing to be sitting in seventh. Chelsea have had a bit of time off as they got knocked out of the FA Cup and Carabao Cup which have been taking place over the last week. Fulham would have been disappointed to only draw with Sunderland in the FA Cup at the weekend, but as I said in my preview of that game Sunderland have been having a very good season. Fulham could have probably done without the replay though next week!
Chelsea have clearly had a lot of issues this season, and Graham Potter must have been feeling the heat as Chelsea slipped down the table. Obviously the debate will rumble on as to whether or not Chelsea should have kept Thomas Tuchel – but for the first time the signs are good for Chelsea in my opinion. The Fulham game was their highest xG of the season, and even though they lost that game it was clearly a very good performance. They followed that up with a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace which on the face of it was a result they grinded out, but their xG of 2.06 shows they created decent chances. Then they went to Anfield and although the game finished 0-0, Chelsea finished with an xG of 1.69 which was higher than Liverpool.
Chelsea come into the game as the odds on favourites, currently trading 1.63 at the time of writing, and while they might not be a popular bet with the casual football fans because of their results recently – I feel it’s a good time to back them. You can clearly see looking at their xG figures that Potter has found a system that suits, and that the side are in form too. Fulham have been having a wonderful season, but they have been massively over-performing at the back.
Fulham are conceding an average xG of 1.9 per game this season, while their actual goals conceded works out at 1.4. Eventually sides will start taking their chances against them, and although they are having a great season I’d expect them to drop down the table as the season goes on. I’m not going to go mad with the stakes here because obviously Chelsea haven’t been winning many games recently, but their performances have clearly improved and they are worth backing at 1.63.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Chelsea to beat Fulham at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheFul
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Chelsea have lost just two of their 37 home league games against Fulham (W22 D13) and are unbeaten in their last 17 against them at Stamford Bridge (W11 D6) since a 2-0 loss in November 1979.
● Fulham won 2-1 at home to Chelsea in the reverse fixture last month – they’re looking to complete their first ever league double over the Blues, with this the 38th different campaign in which they’ve met.
● Chelsea have the highest win rate in Premier League London derbies (52.7%) while Fulham have the lowest (19.3%). If the Blues win this game, it will be their 150th Premier League victory in a London derby, the first side to reach that particular milestone in the competition.
● Having won their first three Premier League games under Graham Potter, Chelsea have now won just two of their subsequent 11 (D4 L5). They also scored as many goals in those first three games as they have in their last 11 (7).
● No side has won more Premier League games than Fulham since the restart of the competition following the World Cup (4), with only Newcastle (0) and Brentford (3) conceding fewer goals than the Cottagers (4). Despite this, Marco Silva’s side could lose three consecutive league games for the first time this season.
● Chelsea are the only side yet to concede a first half goal at home in the Premier League this season. They’ve not conceded in any of their last 10 first halves at Stamford Bridge, last having a longer such run between December 2007 and August 2008 (11).
● Fulham have scored a league-high 11 goals from crosses in the Premier League this season. Meanwhile, only Southampton (31%) have conceded a higher share of their goals from crosses in the competition this season than Chelsea (29% – 6/21).
● Chelsea have had 232 shots in their 20 Premier League games so far this season, with their average of 11.6 per game their lowest on record in a single campaign (since 1997-98).
● No team has used more different players in the Premier League this season than Chelsea (29), with the Blues also making 73 changes to their starting XIs, at least 18 more than any other side this term.
● Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic has been the recipient of more open play crosses than any other player in the Premier League this season (27). Indeed, 40% of Fulham’s successful crosses have been for Mitrovic, also a league-high share (27/68).