PREMIER LEAGUE FRIDAY: The Striker looks ahead to the Friday night Premier League clash between FULHAM v WOLVES with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FULHAM V WOLVES
8pm We have Friday Night Football from the Premier League this week to enjoy on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as Fulham host Wolves. Both sides were involved in 1-0 score lines last weekend with different outcomes. Fulham were extremely lucky to beat Brighton 1-0 away from home, while Wolves were slightly unlucky to lose 1-0 at home to Bournemouth. After a couple of excellent recent results, that loss against Bournemouth does drag Wolves back into the relegation battle for the time being. It’s the opposite for Fulham however who are flying high in sixth!
It’s almost hard to believe that Fulham are starting the weekend in sixth, pushing for a European spot now too, considering that they were one of the favourites to go down at the start of the season. It was always going to be difficult coming up from the Championship but Fulham have handled themselves very well. That being said, they don’t fully deserve to be sitting in sixth. They have been massively over-performing this season – last weekend was another prime example in the 1-0 win over Brighton they conceded an xG of 2.77. Brighton should have won easily, but they just didn’t take their chances.
That has been a common theme in Fulham games this season. They have been very average at the back, but they have yet to be really punished. Their average xG conceded is a whopping 1.9, but their actual figure conceded works out at 1.3 per game. Eventually sides are going to start taking their chances against them! This is counter balance by them created an average xG of 1.5 which is pretty high – that is why they are sitting so high in the table.
It’s easy to understand why we have a reasonably open market here when you look at Fulham’s xG figures. Usually you’d see a side sitting in the Top Six against a side in the relegation battle shorter than 2.4 with home advantage, but the market knows Fulham have been over-performing. Wolves are currently trading 3.3 with the draw 3.45. If Fulham want to have any chance at European football, they have to win fixtures like this – they have Brighton, Liverpool and Chelsea behind them and you can see them finishing the season strongly despite all the issues at Liverpool and Chelsea.
Wolves have been in the relegation fight all season, but they have managed four wins since the World Cup, and they had only lost to Manchester United and Manchester City before the Bournemouth loss at the weekend. The game was even and a fair result would have been a draw, but Wolves didn’t create enough to say they were unlucky not to win. That has been their major issue this season – their average xG created is only 1.1 which is very low. They aren’t even converting those chances either.
I fully accept the fact that Fulham have been getting lucky at the back, but they face a side here who have issues going forward. That is definitely a positive for Fulham, and they are playing with such confidence at the moment that the 2.4 does look good value. I’d have them ten ticks shorter – Wolves are averaging less than one point per game away from home this season, and Fulham have been creating a lot more. They can “get away” with their issues at the back, and win this game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Fulham to beat Wolves at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulWol
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Fulham are winless in their last five Premier League meetings with Wolves (failing to score in the last four) since a 5-0 victory in March 2012 (D2 L3).
● Wolves won their last Premier League away game against Fulham 1-0 in April 2021, last winning consecutive top-flight visits to Craven Cottage in December 1962 (three in a row).
● Fulham have won four points from their two Friday Premier League games this season (W1 D1), as many as they had in their first six such matches in the competition (W1 D1 L4).
● Wolves have lost three of their four Premier League away games played on Friday, though the exception was a 1-0 victory against Fulham in April 2021.
● Since the resumption of the Premier League following the World Cup break, only Manchester United (7) have won more games than Fulham (6). Fulham have won 11 Premier League games in total so far this season, last winning more in a single top-flight campaign in 2011-12 (14).
● Wolves have won two of their four Premier League away games under Julen Lopetegui (D1 L1), more than they had in their previous 14 (W1 D3 L10). They last won consecutive league games on the road in February last year (a run of four).
● Fulham have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three Premier League games, despite facing 43 shots across these matches. They last recorded four consecutive shutouts in the top-flight in December 2001.
● Fulham have the highest expected goals against total in the Premier League this season (41.2) but have conceded just 30 goals. Their difference of conceding 11 fewer goals than their xG against suggests is the highest in the competition so far this term.
● All six of Manor Soloman’s Premier League games for Fulham have been as a substitute, playing 82 minutes in total. He averages a goal every 41 minutes courtesy of scoring in his last two appearances, while the last Israeli player to score in three consecutive Premier League games was Ronnie Rosenthal in November 1992.
● Fulham keeper Bernd Leno has kept seven clean sheets in his 22 Premier League games this season, only keeping more in one of his previous four campaigns in the competition (11 in 35 games in 2020-21).