THE STRIKER: previews Friday’s Premier League game between LEICESTER v NEWCASTLE with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
LEICESTER V NEWCASTLE
8pm After an excellent midweek break to enjoy the Champions League and Europa League Semi-Finals, the Premier League is back with Friday Night Football as Leicester host Newcastle. Leicester would have been very disappointed with a 1-1 draw against Southampton on Monday Night and that just slightly leaves the door open for the likes of West Ham and Liverpool in the race for the Top Four. They are very unlikely to catch Leicester or Chelsea to be honest, but beating Southampton would have put the question to bed.
To be fair to Leicester, they played very well and should have won. They finished with an xG figure of 2.26 and unlike last season, they are finishing the season strongly. I feel they will be a very popular bet, especially for Multiples, at around 1.47 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange tonight. Newcastle are a limited side, but they haven’t been playing badly lately in fairness to them. They played OK against Liverpool for a 1-1 draw and apart from the Arsenal game last weekend, they have been creating some good chances.
If you look through Newcastle’s recent games you will see xG figures like 2.80, 1.44 and 3.86. They were creating chances like that for most of the season, so you could say they are playing their best football of the season at the moment. Most of their impressive performances have come at home however, and their away record is pretty poor. If Leicester were out of form you would fancy Newcastle to pull off a result, but Leicester have been playing good football lately and should win.
I’m pretty confident Leicester win, but at the same time I feel the 1.47 doesn’t offer too much value. It’s hard to argue that they should be shorter or close to 1.4 for example. I think they are priced fairly. The bet I like is over 2.5 goals at 1.8 – Newcastle have been playing a very open game lately and Leicester have been creating some very good chances too. I can see this game being reasonably open – Newcastle might be in 17th, but they are far enough away from Fulham not to worry now and they can play without fear. Leicester will enjoy the open game, and I can see plenty of action – overs looks the value in this one.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleinwc
- Leicester City have won eight of their last 10 Premier League games against Newcastle United (L2), having won just three of their first 17 against them in the competition (D5 L9).
- Since they were promoted back to the Premier League in 2017, Newcastle United have won two of their three away league games against Leicester City, though they did lose this exact fixture 5-0 last season.
- Leicester City have won just one of their 11 Premier League games played on a Friday (D4 L6), with that being their famous 9-0 victory over Southampton last season. At home, the Foxes have drawn one and lost two of their three Friday Premier League games, with two of those coming against Newcastle United (1-1 December 2003, 0-1 April 2019).
- Newcastle United have won three of their last six Friday Premier League games (D1 L2), having won just one of their first eight such matches in the competition (D2 L5).
- Leicester City have won back-to-back home league games for the second time in 2021, having done so just once in the whole of 2020. However, the Foxes haven’t managed more than two consecutive home league wins since December 2019 (a run of 7).
- Just 8% of Leicester’s Premier League goals this season have come from a set-piece situation (5/61, excluding penalties), the lowest ratio in the division this term.
- Newcastle have scored a league-low 33% of their Premier League goals in the first half of games this season (12/36). Indeed, the Magpies have only been leading at half-time in four Premier League matches this term, with only Sheffield United (3) doing so on fewer occasions.
- Since joining Leicester in 2018, James Maddison has scored more goals against Newcastle in all competitions than he has versus any other side (3). Indeed, the midfielder has netted in each of his last three appearances against the Magpies.
- Leicester’s Kelechi Iheanacho has been involved in 11 goals in his last eight Premier League appearances (9 goals, 2 assists), more than he had in his previous 57 in the competition (6 goals, 4 assists).
- Newcastle’s Joe Willock has scored in each of his last three Premier League games, having netted in just two of his first 47 appearances in the competition. These goals have been an 85th minute equaliser, an 82nd minute winner and a 90th minute equaliser against sides in the top seven.