THE STRIKER: previews Friday’s Premier League games between NEWCASTLE v MAN CITY with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
NEWCASTLE V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm Just the one Premier League game for Friday Night Football as the new Champions Manchester City travel to take on Newcastle. It might not have been the way they wanted to win the title, but Man City were confirmed as Champions on Tuesday night after Man United lost against Leicester. Some fans gathered outside to celebrate, but to be honest Man City have been Champions for a while now – it was just mathematically locked in. City have a Champions League Final at the end of the month and with the title in the bag, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some changes to their main XI for the final Premier League games.
This can make their final Premier League games very interesting from a betting point of view on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and I’m sure there will be a lot of movement around the team news, which will be great for pre-match trading. For that sole reason, I wouldn’t be lumping on Man City here at 1.3. Of course, they should easily outclass this Newcastle side, but we could easily see changes to the starting XI too. Perhaps this game is too far away for the Champions League Final to have an impact, but Guardiola will take the chance to rest any players who have even a tiny niggle ahead of City’s biggest game for many years.
Looking at the xG figures from Newcastle recently, it’s clear that they have been enjoying themselves. They are under no pressure given Fulham lost momentum a few weeks ago (and now confirmed as going down), and Newcastle have been attacking a lot more. They have created xG figures likes 3.49, 1.07 (v Liverpool), 2.8, 1.44 and 3.86. I can’t see Newcastle coming into this game to defend – they might as well have a go.
I feel Newcastle can score here, but I’m not interested in backing overs because those markets have priced in Man City scoring a lot. The odds look a little short there, and although the Man City lay is tempting from a value point of view – however my bet is Both Teams To Score at 2.1. I feel the market is wrong here and it should be slightly odds on. I’d expect a reasonably open game, and City can play an open game too with the title in the bag. This is a game for small stakes given the situation, but Both Teams To Score looks good value at 2.1.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 2.1 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnwcmci
● Newcastle United have won one of their last 26 Premier League matches against Manchester City (D4 L21), winning 2-1 in January 2019 despite going behind in the opening minute.
● Manchester City have won one of their last four away Premier League games against Newcastle (D2 L1), going ahead in all three games they failed to win.
● Newcastle have managed just 41 shots in their seven Premier League matches against Pep Guardiola’s Man City (W1 D1 L5), averaging just 23% possession across those games. The Magpies last managed 10+ shots in a league game against City back in August 2014 (12).
● Manchester City have conceded the first goal in just one of their last 22 Premier League matches against Newcastle, doing so in October 2015 – they came back to win 6-1 at the Etihad. They haven’t done so in any of their last 12 visits to St James’ Park, since a 1-0 defeat in September 2005.
● Manchester City have won their last 11 away Premier League matches and a win in this match would see them break the all-time record in the top four tiers of English league football, currently held by Chelsea in 2008 and Manchester City themselves in 2017.
● Manchester City have kept 16 clean sheets away from home in all competitions this season and are one away from equalling the all-time record by a top-flight team in a season, after Liverpool in 1975-76, Chelsea in 2003-04 and Man Utd in 2008-09, who all kept 17 on the road.
● Newcastle have won one of their last 20 Premier League matches against teams starting the day top of the table (D5 L14), a 2-1 win over Chelsea in December 2014.
● In all competitions, Man City are unbeaten in 22 away matches (W20 D2), the longest ever run by an English top-flight team. Should they avoid defeat here, they will break the record away unbeaten run by a team in England’s top four tiers, with Notts County also going 22 without defeat on the road between February and December 2012 as a League One side.
● Newcastle striker Callum Wilson has been involved in 17 Premier League goals in 26 appearances for the Magpies this season (12 goals, 5 assists), the most by an Englishman in their first top-flight season for the club since Alan Shearer scored 25 goals and assisted seven more in 1996-97.
● Manchester City striker Sergio Agüero has scored 15 goals in 14 Premier League appearances against Newcastle, averaging a goal every 61 minutes. Only three players have scored 16+ goals against an opponent in the competition – Alan Shearer against Leeds United (20), and Les Ferdinand & Alan Shearer against Everton (both 16).