THE STRIKER: previews the two Premier League matches on New Year’s Day between EVERTON v WEST HAM and MANCHESTER UNITED v ASTON VILLA both with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
EVERTON V WEST HAM
5.30pm What a way to kick off 2021 with two excellent fixtures! We have two intriguing markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange too, with two home favourites but away sides who have been playing good football this season. We start with Everton hosting West Ham who start 2021 in the top four, Carlo Ancelotti has been doing a great job and who knows – perhaps Everton fans can dream of European football given how many points the clubs around them are dropping. I feel they will be well short of the top four by the end of the season, but they have put together a nice first half of the season. West Ham have impressed me with the volume of chances they have created this season, but they come here without a win in four.
Their volume of chances created has dropped off too; their last four games had an xG of 1.11, 1.58, 0.57 and 0.61. It feels like so long ago since they lost 3-1 to Man United when finishing the game with an xG of 2.67 to 1.56! Everton have bounced back well after a mini dip in form to beat Chelsea, Leicester and Arsenal lately – while they didn’t improve well against Sheffield United on Boxing Day it was still nice to see them grind out a win. Everton may well come out on top here, but they are too short for me at 2.08. I expect a close and very competitive game between two good sides. The draw looks over-priced at 3.7 for me and that’s worth a small bet to start the year.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.7 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQevewhu
- Everton have won more Premier League games (26) and scored more Premier League goals (86) against West Ham than they have vs any other side in the competition.
- West Ham have lost six of their last eight Premier League away games against Everton, winning the other two (3-2 in March 2016, 3-1 in September 2018).
- Everton have won their first league game in just one of the last seven calendar years (D2 L4), losing each of the last three in a row since beating Southampton 3-0 in 2017.
- West Ham have only lost their first league game in two of the last 12 calendar years (W6 D4), doing so against Manchester United in 2017 (0-2) and Fulham in 2014 (1-2).
- Everton have won their last two Premier League home games, beating Chelsea 1-0 and Arsenal 2-1. They last won three consecutively at Goodison Park between March-September 2019, a run of six that began with victories against Chelsea and Arsenal.
- Everton have won their last four Premier League games and are looking to win five in a row in the competition for the first time since April 2014 (7).
- Since his Premier League debut in February, no player has scored more headed goals in the competition than West Ham’s Tomáš Souček (4), while since the same date, only Oli McBurnie (13) has managed more headed shots on target than the Czech international (10).
- Since leaving Everton in 2013, West Ham boss David Moyes has lost all four of his visits to Goodison Park to face his former side in all competitions by an aggregate score of 1-12, including a 1-4 loss in the League Cup this season.
- During his Premier League career, Everton boss Carlo Ancelotti has faced David Moyes more often without winning than against any other manager (5 – D3 L2), however, when both men managed in LaLiga in 2014-15, Ancelotti’s Real Madrid beat Moyes’ Real Sociedad 4-1 at the Santiago Bernabéu, a match in which James Rodríguez netted for Los Blancos.
- Gylfi Sigurdsson has been involved in more Premier League goals against West Ham for Everton than any other opponent (4 – 2 goals, 2 assists), with the Icelander scoring or assisting in each of his four appearances for the Toffees against the Hammers.
MANCHESTER UNITED V ASTON VILLA
8pm What a fixture! Both these sides come into this clash on a high and have been collecting plenty of points this season. Aston Villa have been superb. What a turnaround from their relegation battle last season and in fairness to them they have been excellent since returning from lockdown. With each passing week Man United move into a better position in the league, and while we keep saying they aren’t playing like “title challengers” they will find themselves level on points with Liverpool at the top of the table if they can win here. They found a desperately late goal to beat Wolves on Tuesday but isn’t there a saying “that’s what Champions do!” I’d be very surprised if United actually lift the title, but everyone is dropping points this season.
We landed a nice lay on Chelsea when they hosted Aston Villa on Monday and we can land a Man United lay here at similar odds. United are much too short for me at 1.77 against an excellent Villa side. What has impressed me the most about Villa is their chances created and with United conceding a lot of goals this season – Villa will find the net at some stage and make life exceptionally difficult for United. In Villa’s last six games, they have finished with xG figures of; 0.81, 4.70, 2.45, 2.05, 1.44 and 2.72. I fully expect a closer game than 1.77 suggests on United, and it looks a nice value first lay of 2021!
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Aston Villa at 1.77 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmunavl
- Manchester United have lost just one of their last 43 Premier League games against Aston Villa (W31 D11) and are unbeaten in their last 15 since a 0-1 home loss in December 2009.
- Aston Villa drew this exact fixture with Man Utd 2-2 last season – they’ve not avoided defeat in consecutive league visits to Old Trafford since drawing 0-0 in both the 1995-96 and 1996-97 campaigns.
- Manchester United lost their first league game of 2020, going down 0-2 at Arsenal. They’ve not lost their opening league match in consecutive calendar years since 1978 and 1979.
- Aston Villa won their first league game of 2020 (2-1 vs Burnley), last winning their opening league game in consecutive calendar years in 2008 and 2009.
- Manchester United have won more games on New Year’s Day than any other side in the history of the English Football League (35), while of teams to have played at least 10 games on 1st January the Red Devils also have the highest win rate (61% – 35/57).
- Aston Villa haven’t lost a league game on New Year’s Day since 2001 (0-1 vs Chelsea), with the Villans unbeaten in 10 such games since (W6 D4).
- Aston Villa have won 26 points from 14 Premier League games this season, 11 more than they had after as many games last season (15) – this increase of 11 points across seasons is their biggest improvement at this stage of a top-flight campaign since 1998-99 (14 more than they had in 1997-98).
- Manchester United have lost just three of their 29 Premier League games since Bruno Fernandes made his debut at the start of February 2020 (W18 D8), going unbeaten in each of the last nine (W7 D2).
- Since his debut in February, Bruno Fernandes has been directly involved in 32 goals in 29 games in the Premier League (18 goals, 14 assists). The Portuguese assisted Man Utd’s winner last time out versus Wolves, while his tally of 14 assists in 29 games is the quickest a player has arrived at that total in the competition’s history.
- Anwar El Ghazi has scored in each of his last three Premier League appearances for Aston Villa, the last player to score in four successive top-flight games for the club was Christian Benteke in April 2013.
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