THE STRIKER: previews Friday’s Premier League action with extended stats and a recommended bet. It’s underway at 5.30pm with BRIGHTON v BURNLEY (5.30pm) and SOUTHAMPTON v NEWCASTLE at 8pm.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
BRIGHTON V BURNLEY
5.30pm We might not have the most glamorous fixtures for Friday Night Football but we do have some fascinating markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have two home favourites, but two even looking fixtures on paper. We start with two sides really struggling at the start of the season as Brighton host Burnley. Brighton have been on a poor run of late, but they have managed to win a game so they are just outside the relegation zone. Burnley are rock bottom with just one point from six games. You don’t need me to tell you this, but they need to start collecting points soon or it could be a very difficult road to stay up.
Both sides have out in some reasonable efforts this season. Burnley have had some very close games looking at the xG figures, they just haven’t come out on top in any of them. You would have said that they were good at grinding out close games, but they have lost that at the start of the season. There was never anything flashy about them, so there are unlikely to outscore teams. Apart from Brighton’s performances against Manchester United and Crystal Palace – where they failed to win both games, they have created little. Burnley have been generally created about 1 goal per game on xG and I feel Brighton should be odds against here. I’m going to have a small lay at 1.97.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Brighton to beat Burnley at 1.97 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbribrn
- Brighton have won just one of their six Premier League meetings with Burnley (D3 L2), though it was in their last such game against them, winning 2-1 on the final day of the 2019-20 campaign.
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last four away league games against Brighton since a 0-2 loss in August 2013. However, three of these four visits have ended level (W1).
- Brighton have won three of their four Premier League games played on Fridays (L1), winning both such matches at home (1-0 v Man Utd in May 2018, 1-0 v West Ham in October 2018).
- Burnley are winless in their last 10 top-flight away games played on a Friday (D4 L6) since a 3-1 win at Newcastle in January 1926. However, only one of these games has been in the Premier League (0-2 vs Everton, May 2019).
- Brighton have won just one of their last 12 Premier League home games (D5 L6), and are winless in their last seven at the Amex Stadium since their 2-1 win against Arsenal back in June.
- Burnley’s one point from their six Premier League games this season is their worst return at this stage of a campaign in their league history. They last failed to win any of their first seven games in a campaign in 2014-15, when they were relegated.
- Both Brighton and Burnley have conceded around six goals more than expected based on their xG against figures so far in the Premier League season (Brighton – 7.8 xGA, 14 goals conceded, Burnley – 6 xGA, 12 goals conceded). Indeed, only Liverpool have a higher negative difference this term (8.3 xGA, 15 goals conceded).
- No side has had fewer shots on target in the Premier League than Burnley this season (18), with the Clarets failing to trouble the keeper once in their 0-3 defeat to Chelsea last time out.
- Burnley striker Chris Wood has scored eight goals in his 16 league games against Brighton, more than he’s netted against any other side in his time in England.
- Brighton’s Pascal Groß recorded his first Premier League assist since December 2019 last time out against Spurs, ending a run of 16 games without one. Despite the recent drought, he’s still got twice as many Premier League assists as any other Seagulls player since their promotion in 2017 (16).
SOUTHAMPTON V NEWCASTLE
8pm Newcastle have been a side that have troubled me! Their xG figures are terrible, but they keep getting results and points. I don’t know how they do it. Remember the penalty against Spurs; they created an xG of 0.27 before that compared to the 3.49 from Spurs yet managed a 1-1 draw. There was nothing like that last weekend though as they thoroughly deserved their 2-1 win over Everton. I’m sure they’ll be full of confidence for this fixture, but they meet an excellent Southampton side.
Southampton have started the season on fire. They sit in fifth heading into this weekend, and they must surely fancy their chance of another three points against this Newcastle side. They had a crazy game against Aston Villa last weekend, leading 4-0 before a Villa comeback to make it 4-3. They’ve managed to beat Everton and draw with Chelsea too. Personally I’d have Southampton odds on here and the 2.0 is too tempting to turn down. Under 2.5 goals might be of interest too at 1.97, but it’s Southampton for me.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Southampton to beat Newcastle at 2.0 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsounwc
- After a seven-game unbeaten run against Newcastle in the Premier League between December 2013 and October 2017 (W4 D3), Southampton have lost four of their last five against the Magpies in the competition (D1).
- Newcastle won this exact fixture 1-0 last season, their first away league win against Southampton since September 2004. They’ve never won back-to-back visits to Saints in league competition.
- Southampton have lost all three of their home Premier League games played on Fridays, by an aggregate score of 2-15. Indeed, their last such match ended in a 0-9 defeat against Leicester in October 2019.
- This will be Newcastle’s 12th Premier League game played on a Friday, and the 11th away from home. The Magpies have won two of their last three such games (L1), having won just one of their first eight (D2 L5).
- Victory for Southampton would see them finish a day top of the Premier League for the very first time. Indeed, the last time Saints ended a day at the summit of the top-flight table was back in September 1988 under Chris Nicholl.
- Having lost their opening two league games this season, Southampton are now unbeaten in their last five (W4 D1). Saints are looking to secure three consecutive Premier League victories for the first time since May 2016 under Ronald Koeman.
- Southampton have won four of their last six Premier League home games (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 18 at St Mary’s (W4 D4 L10).
- Newcastle are unbeaten in their last four Premier League away games (W1 D3), winning once and drawing twice on the road so far this term. They last had a longer run without an away Premier League defeat between May-October 2011 (6 games), while 2011-12 was the last time they remained unbeaten in their opening four Premier League away games.
- Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has been involved in four goals in his last two Premier League games (3 goals, 1 assist), more than he had in his previous 28 in the competition (1 goal, 2 assists). 32% of his Premier League goals have been from direct free-kicks (8/25); only two players have a higher such ratio with at least 25 goals scored – Seb Larsson, 42% (11/26) and Ian Harte, 36% (10/28).
- Since joining Southampton in 2019, only Jamie Vardy (29) has scored more Premier League goals than Danny Ings (27). Meanwhile, no player has scored more goals from outside the box than Ings since the start of last season (5).
- Callum Wilson has scored six goals in his seven Premier League appearances for Newcastle, more than he had in his final 30 for Bournemouth in the competition (5). These six goals have been worth six points to Newcastle so far.
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