THE STRIKER: previews Monday’s Championship Play Offs semi-final first leg games between BOURNEMOUTH v BRENTFORD and BARNSLEY v SWANSEA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
BOURNEMOUTH V BRENTFORD
6pm It’s time for some pressure games in the Championship as the Playoffs kick off on Monday! It hasn’t been a very dramatic finish to the Championship this season – the top two were pretty much a lock, although Brentford might question that, and then the third to sixth position were pretty much a lock too, with Bournemouth finishing seven points ahead of Reading in seventh, and Bournemouth lost their last three games too. The Championship is a fantastic league, but because it’s so competitive we usually see some high drama to finish the season. Maybe they have saved all the drama for the Playoffs, and we could see some massive market moves on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! While Bournemouth start with home advantage and Brentford will likely be happy with a draw here, I can’t get away from the Brentford price at 2.72. They finished the season much stronger than Bournemouth.
Given the Playoffs places were locked down for a while, I won’t read too much into Bournemouth losing their last three games, but the sides played as recently as the 24th of April and Brentford dominated the game. They “only” won 1-0 here, but the created an xG of 2.63 and conceded an xG of 0.61. Brentford could have easily won 3-0. Brentford finished the season with some highly impressive xG figures too, their last five games read 2.28, 1.85, 1.68, 2.63 and 1.84. If this was a one off must win game, I would be very tempted to have a Max Bet on Brentford at the odds, but because they would be reasonably happy with a draw, I’m happy to come down to a four point win. The 2.72 still feels massive in my view though.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Brentford to beat Bournemouth at 2.72 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBouBre
BARNSLEY V SWANSEA
8.15pm While the early game today had quite an open market, we have a clear favourite here with Barnsley 2.2 at the moment. Swansea managed to finish two points ahead of Barnsley, and it’s hard to expect anything other than a close game here. If I was having a bet in the match odds market, I would be keen to lay Barnsley as I expect the game to be a lot closer than odds of 2.2 reflect. Swansea didn’t create much in their final two games, but their xG figures aren’t bad and impressive in places before that. I wouldn’t be very confident Barnsley win the game. Despite the home side being a tempting lay, I feel over 2.5 goals is the value here at 2.72. Ironically the same price as my bet in the first Playoff!
I know first legs can be cagey affairs, and I fully accept this game could easily start slowly with both teams not wanting to commit fully. But when I look at the figures for both sides, I only see goals here. I’m happy to limit stakes because it’s a first leg, but the 2.72 is too big to ignore on overs. Not only have both sides been creating decent chances, they have also conceded a lot of chances. Take Barnsley for example as big favourites, they have conceded xG’s of 1.4, 2.31 and 2.42 in their last three games. If anything, Swansea seem to play the tighter game. An early goal here could actually see a crazy score line like 4-3 or something, but whatever happens I feel the overs is worth backing at 2.72. The xG figures say both sides could make mistakes at the back, and I wouldn’t put anyone off a Barnsley lay either and maybe a cheeky bet on 2-2 in the correct score market.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.72 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBarSwa