THE STRIKER: previews Monday’s Premier League game between FULHAM v BURNLEY with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
FULHAM V BURNLEY
8pm The Premier League fixtures just keep on coming and we start another very busy week with Fulham v Burnley for Monday Night Football! This might not be the most glamorous Premier League fixture, but it is very interesting from a betting point of view with Fulham clear favourites on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Fulham have to win, they are almost certain to go down, however Burnley are the only side they can catch. They start the game nine points behind Burnley however, and surely with the amount of games left Fulham are 1.01 to go down.
That being said, the club won’t have given up yet, especially as they meet their main target tonight and we should have a very interesting game ahead even if it isn’t the most high quality affair. Fulham have ran out of steam in recent weeks in their bid to stay up, however as I said when they were playing so well – it’s so difficult to make up all that ground, and then actually go past. It’s hard to keep the momentum for that long and you always tend to bump into the big sides too. Fulham got stopped in their tracks by Man City and now they have only managed one draw in their last six games.
Burnley have also finished the season pretty poorly, but they have bagged the odd win to keep themselves out of reach from Fulham. That 4-0 win over Wolves was a shock and came from nowhere, but Wolves have been pretty average this season. Burnley haven’t played too badly recently despite not getting many results. They created an xG of 2.24 against West Ham, 1.07 away to Man United, 2.34 against Newcastle when they were very unlucky to lose and 1.61 against Southampton Those figures are much more impressive than Fulham who haven’t been playing well lately and I can see Burnley sealing Fulham’s fate tonight.
The 2.28 on Fulham looks an excellent value lay – I feel that’s very much a “need to win” price and while I can understand why a lot of punters who be happy to take on Burnley, if you look at the underlining numbers they aren’t playing as bad as their results suggest. I would have the teams much closer together in the betting and I have to have a Max Bet lay on Fulham at the odds – 2.28 is way too short in my book. I believe this is my first Max Bet lay!
The Striker Says:
Five points lay (liability) Fulham to beat Burnley at 2.28 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQfulbur
● Fulham have won eight of their last nine home league meetings with Burnley, with the only blip in that run a 2-3 loss in March 2016 in the Championship.
● Burnley have won just one of their five Premier League meetings with Fulham (D2 L2), losing both visits to Craven Cottage by an aggregate score of 7-2.
● Burnley beat Fulham 3-0 at Craven Cottage in the FA Cup earlier this season – the last time the Clarets won two away games against the same side in a season was vs Blackpool in 1992-93.
● Since winning 1-0 at Liverpool to go level on points with Brighton in 17th, Fulham have picked up just one point from their last 18 available in the Premier League (W0 D1 L5) and are on the brink of relegation back to the Championship.
● Burnley won 4-0 at Wolves in their last away league game and are looking for back-to-back wins on the road for the first time since July 2020. The Clarets have scored 12 goals in their last six away league games (2 per game), as many as they had in their previous 18 outside of Turf Moor (0.7 per game).
● Fulham have scored just nine goals in their 17 Premier League home games this season, netting more than once on just two occasions. No English top-flight team has ever failed to reach double figures for home goals in a single campaign before.
● Burnley have lost four of their last five Premier League games (W1), more than they had in their previous 12 in the competition (W4 D5 L3). The Clarets have opened the scoring in three of their four defeats in this run, including last time out against West Ham.
● A league-high 29% of Burnley’s Premier League goals this season have been scored in the opening 15 minutes of games (9/31). Meanwhile, only Crystal Palace (11) have conceded more goals in this timeframe than the Clarets (10).
● Burnley’s Jay Rodriguez has scored five goals in seven appearances against Fulham in all competitions, including a brace in their 3-0 FA Cup win at Craven Cottage this season. Only against Nottingham Forest (6) has he scored more in English football.
● Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored four goals in his last two Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 14 in the competition.