THE STRIKER: previews Monday’s Premier League games between WEST BROM v WOLVES and BURNLEY v WEST HAM both with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
WEST BROM V WOLVES
6pm The two Premier League games for Monday Night Football might not be the most glamorous fixtures in the calendar, but we definitely have two very interesting markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start with West Brom hosting Wolves and we have a very open market – both sides are very similar prices. Wolves definitely put in the first “we’re on the beach” performance of the season last weekend with a 4-0 loss against Burnley. I have to say I didn’t see that coming, despite the fact that Wolves have been poor this season and they have nothing to play for. Their xG figures had been good, and perhaps it was just a freak result. This is actually a very interesting game and market, because West Brom are finishing the season relatively strongly.
West Brom are probably a classic example of a side now playing with freedom given they know they are going down. They have of course given away plenty of chances, but they have been creating a lot too. They have had xG figures like 1.77, 3.07, 1.52 and 1.87 in their last six games and they were only outplayed by Leicester. That being said, I still wouldn’t be rushing to back them – they are still a poor side after all, and if you can overlook the 4-0 loss to Burnley then Wolves look too big here at 2.76. This is a game for very low stakes in my opinion as we should get a pretty low quality affair, but in fairness neither side have anything to play for so we could have a very open game. Wolves are worth a small investment for me at 2.76.
The Striker Says:
One point win Wolves to beat West Brom at 2.76 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbawol
- West Brom have won their last three league games against Wolves, last winning more consecutively against their Midlands rivals between 1929-1932 (6).
- Wolves are winless in their last nine away league games against West Brom (D4 L5) since a 4-2 win in September 1996. Wolves have netted just three goals in those nine games, failing to score on six occasions.
- West Brom have won two of their last four Premier League home games, as many as they had in their previous 19 at the Hawthorns in the top-flight.
- In their first five Premier League home games under Sam Allardyce, West Brom conceded 19 goals at an average of 3.8 per game. Since then, they’ve conceded just twice in their subsequent five home league games (0.4 per game) and are looking to keep three consecutive home clean sheets in the top-flight for the first time since March 2015.
- Wolves remain the only team not to lose when scoring the first goal in Premier League games this season (W8 D1). However, only West Brom and relegated Sheffield United (both 8) have opened the scoring in fewer games than Wolves (9).
- Wolves are looking to keep three consecutive away clean sheets in the top-flight for the first time since March 1960. However, only Sheffield United (7) have scored fewer away goals than Wolves (14) in the Premier League this season.
- No side has scored fewer goals in the opening 15 minutes of Premier League games this season than Wolves (3). Two of Wolves’ three goals in this period came in their first game of the season at Sheffield United.
- West Brom have used a league-high 30 different players in the Premier League this season. However, just 33% of these have found the net (10), with only Sheffield United having fewer different scorers than the Baggies this term (8).
- West Brom manager Sam Allardyce has faced Wolves without losing more often than any other side in the Premier League (6 – W4 D2).
- West Brom’s Matheus Pereira has been involved in six goals in his last four Premier League games (4 goals, 2 assists). The Brazilian also scored twice in the Baggies’ 3-2 win against Wolves in the reverse fixture.
BURNLEY V WEST HAM
8.15pm Another fascinating fixture and market! As I mentioned above, Burnley hammered Wolves 4-0 last weekend but when you look through the Burnley xG figures that win came from nowhere really. West Ham have offered a lot of value in the Premier League this season and they have been one of my favourite sides to back – I feel they are worth backing again here at 2.44 which looks far too big to beat an average Burnley side. Prior to the 4-0 win over Wolves, you would have said Burnley had a small chance of going down given the direction they were going compared to the sides around them – that win has put that issue to bed, but one good performances doesn’t make your season!
West Ham come into this game under a huge amount of pressure after losing two games at the wrong time. You can possibly forgive them losing to Chelsea, but you can’t forgive the loss to Newcastle. They absolutely threw the game away in the first half, giving away two of the easiest goals with huge errors, and then getting a player sent off too. Perhaps it was a sign of how good they have been playing that they were able to get back to 2-2, before conceding late as a lot of sides with ten men do. It’s all about the prices, and 2.44 is just too big on this West Ham side to beat Burnley. West Ham have been excellent going forward this season, and with Burnley giving away a lot of goals I would have The Hammers around 2.1 to win tonight. The 2.44 looks immense value and is worth a very confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Four points win West Ham to beat Burnley at 2.44 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburwhu
- Having won just one of their first seven Premier League games against West Ham (D1 L5), Burnley have won four of their last six against the Hammers (L2), though they did lose the reverse fixture at the London Stadium earlier this season.
- West Ham are winless in three Premier League away games against Burnley (D1 L2), last winning at Turf Moor in May 2017 under Slaven Bilic (2-1).
- Burnley won 4-0 against Wolves in their last league game, netting 4+ goals in a single Premier League match for the first time since September 2018 (4-0 vs Bournemouth). The Clarets have managed back-to-back league wins just once this season, doing so vs Liverpool and Aston Villa in January.
- Burnley are winless in their last seven Premier League home games (D5 L2), their longest run without a top-flight victory at Turf Moor since a run of eight between December 1970 and March 1971.
- West Ham have lost consecutive league games for the first time since their opening two of the season. They last lost three in a row in June 2020.
- Coming into this weekend’s games, only Manchester City (30) have scored in more different Premier League matches than West Ham this season (27). Meanwhile, West Ham have both scored and conceded in 19 Premier League games this term, a joint-high with Manchester United and Newcastle United.
- Burnley striker Chris Wood has scored more Premier League goals against West Ham than he has versus any other side in the competition (6 goals in 7 games), netting in all three of his appearances against the Hammers at Turf Moor in the competition.
- Following his hat-trick against Wolves last time out, Chris Wood became Burnley’s outright highest goalscorer in the Premier League with 44 goals. He also became the first Burnley player to reach double figures for goals in four consecutive top-flight campaigns since Andy Lochhead’s run of six between 1962-63 and 1967-68.
- 63% of Burnley midfielder Dwight McNeil’s Premier League assists have been for Chris Wood goals (10/16); of all players with at least 15 assists in the competition, McNeil has the highest percentage for one teammate.
- Jesse Lingard’s nine Premier League goals this season have been worth 10 points to West Ham, more than any other player since his first appearance for them in February.