THE STRIKER: previews Monday’s two Premier League games with extended stats and recommended bets. The action starts at 5.30pm with WEST BROM v BURNLEY followed by LEEDS v WOLVES at 8pm.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
WEST BROM V BURNLEY
5.30pm We have a massive week of football action with the Champions League kicking off tomorrow, however before that we have Monday Night Football to enjoy in the Premier League! We start with West Brom hosting Burnley as both teams struggle towards the bottom of the table. Burnley have lost all three of their games thus far, while West Brom have managed a point from four games – with that point coming against Chelsea in a game where they lead 3-0 at HT. It’s fair to say both sides are under pressure, even so early in the season.
West Brom have put in some very poor performances and based on what we’ve seen from them in their early games, they look like they could go straight back down to the Championship. They benefitted hugely from massive errors from Chelsea at the back, and they have created very little in some games. They recorded an xG of 0.19 against Southampton, 0.35 against Everton and 0.46 against Leicester. Burnley numbers aren’t much better, and while I would lean towards them as they are generally a solid team – the draw is too appealing to turn down at 3.4 in what should be a pretty low quality affair.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.4 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbabur
- West Bromwich Albion have lost just one of their six Premier League meetings with Burnley (W3 D2), though it was the last time they met in the competition in March 2018 (1-2).
- Prior to winning 2-1 in their last away meeting with West Brom in March 2018, Burnley had lost nine of their last 10 league visits to the Hawthorns (D1) in a run stretching back to 1971.
- West Brom have conceded 13 goals in their four Premier League matches this season – only Swindon in 1993-94 and Southampton in 2012-13 (both 14) have shipped more four games into a Premier League campaign.
- West Brom are 17th and Burnley are 18th coming into this match, while the bottom two sides (Sheffield United and Fulham) are also facing each other today. It’s the first time the bottom four clubs have faced one another on the same day in the Premier League since 13th September 2014, with both West Brom (0-2 v Everton) and Burnley (0-0 v Crystal Palace) involved that day too.
- West Brom are winless in their four Premier League games this season (D1 L3) – they’ve not remained without a victory in their first five games to a league campaign since 2004-05.
- Burnley haven’t begun a league campaign with four consecutive defeats since 2002-03 in the second tier, while the last time they did so in the top-flight was in 1927-28.
- Burnley have lost their last four Premier League games, last losing five in a row in the top- flight in January 1976. Indeed, it’s more defeats than they’d suffered in their first 17 league matches in 2020 (W8 D6 L3).
- West Brom have had fewer shots than any other Premier League side so far this season (27). They also have the lowest expected goals (xG) total (1.5), but have scored five goals, meaning they’ve scored around three goals more than would normally be expected based on the quality of their chances.
- West Brom are the only side yet to score in the final 30 minutes of Premier League games this season, with their latest goal coming after 47 minutes (Matheus Pereira vs Everton). Meanwhile, they’ve shipped a league-high seven goals in the final half-hour so far this term.
- Burnley striker Jay Rodriguez scored 29 goals in 82 league appearances for West Brom between 2017-2019. However, he’s never scored in six league games against the Baggies before (all with Southampton between 2012-2016).
LEEDS V WOLVES
8pm West Brom v Burnley is an OK starter, but this is the main course on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this evening! We actually have a very similar market prices wise, with Leeds favourites but we have an open market. Leeds have had a rollercoaster ride at the start of the season, losing 4-3 to Liverpool before beating Fulham 4-3! Even allowing for all those goals, the biggest drama was probably the unexpected draw with Man City. Leeds will be delighted with how they have started the season, although they have been playing excellent football for a while now and always looked like a top ten Premier League side.
Wolves have had a very slow start, and Leeds will see this as an excellent chance to notch up another three points against a similar level club. Wolves have beaten Sheffield United and Fulham, but it must be said that both those sides have been poor at the start of the season. They were well beaten by West Ham, and while the loss against Man City was pretty much expected, you can see looking at the under-lining numbers that Wolves aren’t playing at the same level as last season. I think this is a good time to back Leeds, as it’s a good time to be against Wolves – I need to see them from them before I consider backing Wolves and Leeds can take advantage.
The Striker Says:
One point win Leeds to beat Wolves at 2.56 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleewol
- Leeds have lost three of their last four home league games against Wolves (W1) – more than they had in their previous 23 against them at Elland Road (W17 D4 L2).
- Wolves have won their last three league meetings with Leeds – they last won four in a row against them between February 1958-April 1960 (a run of five).
- This is just the second Premier League campaign in which Leeds and Wolves are facing off, after both being relegated in 2003-04. The home side won both meetings that season (Wolves 3-1, Leeds 4-1).
- After losing their first game at Liverpool on their return to the Premier League, Leeds are now without defeat in their last three (W2 D1), remaining unbeaten at Elland Road so far this season (W1 D1).
- Wolves have won just two of their nine Premier League games played on a Monday (D2 L5), beating Crystal Palace 2-0 in July and Sheffield United 2-0 in September of this year.
- Wolves have lost three of their last five away Premier League games (W1 D1), as many as they had in their previous 16 on the road in the competition (W7 D6 L3).
- Wolves have lost just one of their last 10 Premier League games against promoted sides (W7 D2), with that defeat coming in Yorkshire at Sheffield United last season (0-1).
- Leeds have faced more shots than any other side in the Premier League so far this season (73). This could be, in part, down to the fact that the Whites have had more high turnovers against them (open play sequences that begin 40m or less from goal) than any other side in the competition this term (30).
- No defender has made more tackles (19) or completed more dribbles (11) than Leeds’ Luke Ayling in the Premier League this season. Meanwhile only Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold (233) and Andrew Robertson (246) have been involved in more open play build-up sequences than the Leeds full-back (219).
- Leeds’ Patrick Bamford has had a hand in four goals in his four league starts against Wolves (3 goals, 1 assist), last facing them with Middlesbrough in March 2018 (scored in a 1-2 defeat).
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