FA CUP 3rd ROUND: The Striker previews the FA Cup third round games on Saturday between MILLWALL v CRYSTAL PALACE, LEICESTER v WATFORD and HULL v EVERTON all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MILLWALL V CRYSTAL PALACE
12.45pm The FA Cup Third Round continues on Saturday and all football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have a very busy day ahead, but I’m happy to focus on the TV games and the all Premier League clash at 3pm. We start the day with Millwall host Crystal Palace, and this should be a good game. Millwall find themselves in mid table in the Championship but the atmosphere will be bouncing for this game. This is actually Patrick Vieira’s first FA Cup game as manager after winning it five times as a player – he actually retired after winning the FA Cup in 2005 and believe it or not, he scored the winning penalty! Although Millwall are in mid table in the Championship, they are in the mix for the Playoff places if they can win their games in hand. Obviously we have a very different situation this season with Covid19 and everyone playing different amounts of games at the moment. Crystal Palace basically have nothing to worry about in the Premier League – they will finish mid table – and they can spice up their season with a Cup run.
Millwall have been playing pretty average football in the Championship. Most of their xG figures have been pretty even. They tend to concede an xG of just over 1 per game. That’s not really good news here against a better club. Palace arrive into this fixture in good form too – they might have lost on New Years Day 3-2 against West Ham, but they finished with an xG of 2.97 and that followed on from a 3-0 win over Norwich. Those two games came at home, and obviously this is a tricky away fixture. I would have Palace odds on though, and the 2.14 is worth taking. I’m happy to keep stakes reasonably limited all weekend given the team selection worries and just general lack of trust in the FA Cup because of how the Premier League sides have viewed it in recent years, but this is a good chance for Palace to start a good Cup run and the 2.14 is good value.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Crystal Palace to beat Millwall at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMilCry
LEICESTER V WATFORD
3pm Leicester v Watford is my pick of the 3pm games on a busy afternoon. Watford will welcome the change of competition, and as we saw with Sheffield United last season, perhaps a Cup run can give them a confidence boost. They badly need it as they are heading in the wrong direction at the moment. I know they battled hard to try and get a draw with Spurs at the weekend, and although Spurs won it with the last kick off the game, Spurs bossed the game and should have won easier. Leicester shocked Liverpool with a 1-0 win after Christmas, and that will definitely ease the pressure on Brendan Rodgers given their pretty average season thus far, but they were incredibly lucky to win. They conceded an xG of 2.5 and Liverpool should have won – it was just one of those days for Liverpool. Leicester have actually had some crazy games recently. They have beaten Liverpool 1-0 while conceding an xG of 2.5, lost 6-3 to Man City, beat Newcastle 4-0 and conceded an xG of 2.23 against Aston Villa in a loss there.
It’s pretty obvious that Leicester haven’t been at their best this season, and perhaps a Cup run will be good for them too. They are sitting in mid table in the Premier League and at the moment it looks like they won’t achieve anything in terms of getting into the Europe, so this is their last chance of success. They managed to win the competition last season with a 1-0 win over Chelsea in the final, and I have to say I would be pretty disappointed if they named a less than full strength side here! The problem with the FA Cup these days, is you don’t actually know how serious clubs take it which is a big shame. Watford have been pretty poor recently, conceding a host of chances and Leicester beat them 4-2 here recently. Watford did created an xG of 3.05 in that game though, and while Leicester are a tempting bet – these two screams goals to me. Over 2.5 goals is 1.87 and that looks the value call in what should be an open game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLcrWat
HULL V EVERTON
5.30pm We finish the day with a fascinating fixture as Hull host Everton. I have to say I love these fixtures the most in the FA Cup. We have a host of talking points here, and Everton come into the game under immense pressure. They are levels above Hull though, and they should really get the job done. The big issue from a betting point of view is however, is the 1.98 good value on an away win? There’s no getting away from the fact that Everton have been woeful this season. It was a slight surprise to see Rafa Bentiez take this job given his CV, but he’s at a massive risk of getting sacked now, and surely anything bar a win here would throw more fuel on the fire. Everton are currently sitting in 15th position, and they are closer to the relegation zone than fighting for European places. They didn’t played too badly after New Years when losing 3-2 to Brighton, but given they were at home it just adds more pressure to the situation. Benitez was lucky to pick up a draw at Chelsea – especially because they conceded an xG of 3.54 in a 1-1 draw!
While Everton have multiple issues, I wouldn’t just take them on blindly here. Hull are sitting 19th in the Championship and they have been pretty poor this season. The bottom two in the Championship will go down, and then there is a bit of a fight for that third spot to go down. Peterborough are four points behind Hull, but they have a game in hand so Hull are in a bit of danger although there are a few teams around the same amount of points as Hull. The xG table for the Championship doesn’t move Hull from 19th, so that’s how bad they have been. I know Everton aren’t exactly a trustworthy team at the moment, but the 1.98 seems too big on them here. Despite losing a few games and conceding a few goals, they have created some decent xG figures recently. You have to remember the gulf in class here too, Hull are going to give away plenty of chances. The 1.98 is worth backing, but again just keep stakes in check.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Everton to beat Hull at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQHulEvr