THE STRIKER: previews the FA Cup third round games on Saturday between EVERTON v ROTHERHAM UNITED, STOKE v LEICESTER, ARSENAL v NEWCASTLE and MANCHESTER UNITED v WATFORD with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
EVERTON V ROTHERHAM UNITED
12pm We have a packed football schedule today with the FA Cup Third Round taking place and all football bets are 0% commission BETDAQ Betting Exchange today! We start the day early with Everton hosting Rotherham United. You’d have to expect Carlo Ancelotti to rest a number of his players here, especially considering Everton have a game away to Wolves on Tuesday. Even with a number of players rested, this should be a straightforward win for Everton. They have had some setbacks in the Premier League, but Rotherham are having a woeful season.
Rotherham are sitting second last in the Championship with only 16 points from 20 games. Their xG figures are unsurprisingly poor given their position – they concede at least 1.5+ chances per game and a lot of teams have scored twice or more against them recently. Everton have confidence and have had a great season thus far – they’re in the mix for a Europa League spot and should be able to outclass this struggling Rotherham side. Everton are a banker for any BETDAQ Multiple today in my opinion, and I’m happy to take the 1.4 on offer.
The Striker says:
Three points win Everton to beat Rotherham United at 1.4 BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQEveRot
- Each of the previous five meetings between Everton and Rotherham have been in the League Cup, most recently a 3-1 win for Everton at Goodison Park in 2018-19.
- Rotherham have lost each of their last four games against Everton at Goodison Park, with their sole victory there coming in November 1952 in a top-flight match.
- Everton have lost five of their last six matches in the FA Cup (W1), as many losses as in their previous 27 games combined in the competition.
- Rotherham have lost each of their last five away FA Cup ties against top-flight opponents, scoring one goal while conceding 19 – most recently a 7-0 defeat against Manchester City at this stage last season.
STOKE V LEICESTER
3pm We have a massive amount of fixtures at 3pm, and the pick of them for me is Stoke against Leicester. Given the Covid19 situation around the world, it’s actually been so long since we had a fixture list like this at 3pm on a Saturday! It’s nice to see, but I do love the staggered approach to the Premier League fixtures letting us enjoy all the games we want. This will be an interesting game, but I fancy Leicester to come out on top despite them expected to rest a number of their players. They don’t have a Premier League game midweek however, so if they wanted to play a strong XI they could. Perhaps it’s a reflection of the top sides view on the FA Cup these days that a strong XI is still unlikely.
Stoke are having their best season in the Championship this season, but they are still short of the mark. They sit in 8th at the moment after dropping ground recently with only one win in their last seven games and they were lucky to do so against Blackburn. Looking at the xG figures it’s easy to see the problem for Stoke – they don’t create enough chances. You see xG figures likes 0.69, 0.64, 0.53, 0.52 and 0.19 in their recent games. They very rarely create an xG of over 1.5, and Leicester can outscore them here. My stakes will be reduced because of the chances of resting players, but Leicester have done well in the Europa League with a changed XI and they can win here. 1.88 is just too big to ignore.
The Striker says:
Two points win Leicester to beat Stoke at 1.88 BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQStoLcr
- Stoke City last faced Leicester City in the FA Cup in the third round in 2013/14, winning 2-1 under Mark Hughes.
- The last three meetings between Stoke and Leicester at the bet365 Stadium have all ended 2-2, all in Premier League meetings between September 2015 and November 2017.
- After a run in which they progressed from seven consecutive FA Cup third round ties between 2009/10 and 2015/16, Stoke have been eliminated from their last four third round ties.
- Leicester have progressed from all five of their FA Cup ties against Championship opposition since they won promotion to the Premier League in 2014.
ARSENAL V NEWCASTLE
5.30pm We have an all Premier League clash here as Arsenal host Newcastle. I have to say, a lot of football fans might not pay attention to the FA Cup these days and who can blame them given the view of the clubs these days, but I find games like this fascinating. Newcastle have a Premier League game on Tuesday, and they might actually opt to rest players given the hectic schedule. I’m always amazed to see mid-table Premier League clubs view the Cups like that. What are they going to achieve throughout the season – wouldn’t a Cup run be a highlight? You can probably say the same about Arsenal, as this has been their only success in recent years. It gave the club a massive boost last season.
Arsenal have had enough drama for five seasons already but it’s been great fun watching them. They were close to getting into a relegation battle, but they have turned things around in recent weeks with three wins against Chelsea, Brighton and West Brom. They were impressive against West Brom, but there wasn’t much between themselves and Chelsea or Brighton. I still feel they are very beatable, and I’m going to take a chance with a small Arsenal lay at 1.5. A lot depends on team news here so stakes are kept low, but Newcastle have improved this season compared to last, and they can make the game closer than odds of 1.5 suggest.
The Striker says:
One point lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Newcastle at 1.5 BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQArlNwc
- Having lost their first three FA Cup ties with Newcastle, Arsenal have progressed/won four of their last five against the Magpies in the competition, most recently a 3-0 win at the Emirates in the fourth round in 2007-08.
- Newcastle’s last three away games against Arsenal in the FA Cup have all ended in 0-3 defeats – in a fifth round replay in 1936, quarter-final replay in 2002 and a fourth round tie in 2008.
- Arsenal have only been eliminated at the third round stage of the FA Cup in one of the last 24 campaigns, with that coming against Nottingham Forest the last time they entered the competition as holders (2017-18).
- Newcastle have been eliminated from 10 of their last 11 FA Cup ties against fellow Premier League opposition, with the exception being a 2-1 win against Blackburn in January 2012.
MANCHESTER UNITED V WATFORD
8pm It wasn’t so long ago that this was an all Premier League clash! Watford will be disappointed with their performance in the Championship this season as they would have fancied themselves to bounce straight back up. A lot of sides think that though, and then they realise how difficult the Championship is – it’s very competitive. They sit in 6th at the moment, ten points behind the leaders and they will have to battle hard for a Playoff spot. United should rest players here given they had a big game against City midweek in the Carabao Cup semi-final and then they have a huge game on Tuesday because a win would see them go top.
So I would expect a lot of changes for United here, anything else would be foolish from Solskjaer. I know he has been poor with subs, but surely he’ll see the bigger picture here. With that in mind, I feel a small lay of United is a good value option at 1.36. Watford managed a 2-0 win over United last season, and although a lot has changed since I feel at odds like this it’s worth a small investment. I’d personally have United at 1.4+ given the likely changes.
The Striker says:
One point lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Watford at 1.36 BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQUtdWfd
- Manchester United have won three of their four FA Cup ties against Watford, with this their first against the Hornets since a 4-1 semi-final win in 2007.
- In all competitions, Watford have lost their last nine away games against Man Utd and are winless in their last 13 trips to face the Red Devils (D2 L11) since a 2-1 win in a League Cup tie in October 1978.
- Manchester United have progressed from 33 of their last 35 FA Cup third round ties, though both failures in that run did come in home games (2009-10 vs Leeds, 2013-14 vs Swansea).
- Excluding games when they were a Premier League side themselves, Watford have been eliminated from their 10 FA Cup ties against top-flight opponents since beating Sunderland 1-0 in February 2003.
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