🆕 THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games between NORWICH v BRIGHTON, LEICESTER, CRYSTAL PALACE, MAN U v BOURNEMOUTH, WOLVES v ARSENAL and the late kick off between CHELSEA v WATFORD – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
NORWICH V BRIGHTON
12.30pm We don’t have any glamorous fixtures today, but they are very interesting nonetheless. The early kick-off is fascinating from a betting point of view as two very bad sides meet. Brighton were played off the park midweek by Manchester United while Arsenal did a number on Norwich. As I noted midweek, Norwich losing to Manchester United in extra-time in the FA Cup effectively ended their season and surely Brighton will see this has a fantastic opportunity to pick up three points.
A win here would go a long way to meaning Brighton are safe from going down. Their xG actually puts them in the top half of the Premier League so their process is good; however the reality is apart from the Arsenal win they have really struggled to collect points in 2020. Norwich have yet to create an xG over 1 in their three Premier League games and with a win meaning a lot for Brighton I can’t see past them at 2.34 here. I’ve lower my stakes because it’s a game between two poor teams, but Brighton win for me and 2.34 is too big.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Brighton to beat Norwich at 2.34 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQnorbri
- After a six-game unbeaten league run against Brighton (W5 D1), Norwich have lost two of their last three against the Seagulls (W1).
- Following their 2-0 win at the Amex Stadium in November, Brighton are looking to complete their first league double over Norwich since 1951-52.
- Norwich have failed to score in three of their last four Premier League home games, including each of their last two. They last went three league games without a goal at Carrow Road in September 2000, while it’s not something they’ve ever suffered in the Premier League.
- Brighton are winless in their last eight Premier League away games (D5 L3), though each of their last four have ended level.
- Having scored nine goals in their first five Premier League games this season (1.8 per game) – including netting three in two different matches – Norwich have scored just 16 in their last 27 league games (0.6 per game) and never more than twice in a match.
- Brighton have won fewer games than any other Premier League side so far in 2020 (W1 D7 L4). The Seagulls have also failed to score in four of their last five league matches.
- Norwich have lost their last five games in all competitions, their worst losing run under Daniel Farke. It is Farke’s joint-worst losing run in his managerial career, also losing five consecutively as SV Lippstadt boss in November 2013.
- Norwich have scored the fewest Premier League goals this season (25), conceded the joint most (60) and have failed to score in more different games than any other side (15).
- Lewis Dunk has been shown 13% of Brighton’s yellow cards in the Premier League (21/163), the highest ratio of any player at a team to have featured in more than two seasons in the competition.
- Norwich’s Teemu Pukki has failed to have a shot in either of his last two Premier League games. The Finnish striker had only failed to register an attempt in one of his first 29 appearances this season.
LEICESTER V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm It’s “squeaky bum time” for Leicester as Sir Alex Ferguson once said. Leicester have been dreadful since returning from lockdown and they are in serious danger of dropping out of the top four. Who would have seen that coming before Christmas – back then they were the side who could possibly challenge Liverpool! They must view this as a very winnable fixture to get back on track, but Palace are tough to beat and they were very unlucky to lose to Burnley last time out.
Leicester performed better midweek against Everton, but they should have been beaten by Brighton and Watford in the weeks previously. They have a good record at home this season, but xG shows that they are over-achieving and actually puts them in 5th. They have scored 30 but only have an xG of just under 24 and they have only conceded 15 but given up an xG of just under 21. A problem for Palace has been scoring goals and this is an obvious worry, but I feel there is value in laying Leicester as a small bet at 1.71.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leicester to beat Crystal Palace at 1.71 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQleicry
- Leicester’s 2-0 win at Selhurst Park in the reverse fixture ended a run of four straight Premier League defeats against Crystal Palace – they last did the league double over them in 2015-16.
- Crystal Palace have won their last two Premier League away games against Leicester, winning 3-0 in December 2017 and 4-1 in February 2019.
- Crystal Palace were the last London club to win away at Leicester in the Premier League (4-1 in February 2019). Since then, Leicester have won five and drawn two home games against London sides, while this could be the first campaign they remain unbeaten in such matches since 2000-01.
- Since collecting maximum points across eight Premier League games between October 19 th and December 8 th , Leicester City have won just 17 points from their last 16 Premier League games (W4 D5 L7).
- After a run of four consecutive victories without conceding, Crystal Palace have lost their last two Premier League games without scoring. They remain the only side yet to score more than twice in any of their 32 Premier League games this season.
- Crystal Palace have netted just nine Premier League goals before half-time this season, failing to score in the first half a joint league-high 24 times. In a completed Premier League season, only Sunderland in 2002-03 and Aston Villa in 2015-16 (both 8) have netted fewer in the opening 45 minutes.
- Before the enforced break, Leicester had the second highest shot conversion rate in the Premier League this season, netting with 14.3% of their shots (58/405). Since the restart, their conversion rate is just 4.9%, with the Foxes scoring just twice from 41 attempts.
- Crystal Palace are the only side who haven’t scored more than twice in a Premier League match this season, while only Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd have scored 3+ goals in more Premier League games than Leicester (7) this term.
- Leicester striker Jamie Vardy scored 26 goals in his first 28 Premier League appearances under Brendan Rodgers – since then, he has found the net just twice in 11 games, failing to attempt a single shot in their 2-1 away defeat at Everton.
- In his English league career, Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has been involved in more goals against Leicester than he has against any other side (9 – 5 goals, 4 assists).
MANCHESTER UNITED V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm We have two complete opposite sides here. Untied are absolutely flying at the moment and must be reasonably confident of a Top Four finish now. Obviously they need to win games like this, but they are playing superbly. Bournemouth have lost their three games since lockdown and were tonked 4-1 by Newcastle on Wednesday night. xG said the margin shouldn’t have been so big, but it almost reflects where they are as a team at the moment. They are very lucky the teams around them at the bottom of the table are losing too so they still have a chance of staying up.
United bossed Brighton on Tuesday night and had an extra day of rest over Bournemouth. They ran through Sheffield United in their last fixture here and I can see the same happening this afternoon. They look cracking value to cover the 1.5 goal handicap at around 1.6 on BETDAQ Exchange. They are creating more chances and looking dangerous all the time now – maybe Ole is indeed getting the old United back. Maybe that’s too early to say, but they should easily cover the handicap today.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester United -1.5 goals to beat Bournemouth at 1.6 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQmunbou
- Manchester United have won seven of their eight home games against Bournemouth in all competitions, drawing the other in March 2017 (1-1).
- Bournemouth are looking to complete their first Premier League double over Manchester United following their 1-0 win at home back in November.
- Manchester United have kept five clean sheets in their last six Premier League home games (W4 D1 L1) – as many as they had in their previous 32 at Old Trafford. They’re looking to win four consecutive home league games without conceding for the first time since a run of six ending in October 2017.
- Bournemouth have lost 10 of their last 11 Premier League away games (W1), while overall no side has lost more on the road in the top-flight this season than the Cherries (12).
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 15 matches in all competitions (W11 D4), the best current run among all Premier League sides. They last had a longer run in January 2017 (17 games).
- Bournemouth have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 15 Premier League matches, the worst current run in the division and the Cherries’ worst league run since going 21 matches without one between April and October 1994.
- 53% (16/30) of the goals Bournemouth have scored this season have been via set pieces, the highest percentage in the division. The Cherries haven’t scored from open play in five hours and 51 minutes of Premier League football.
- Bournemouth have lost their last four Premier League matches, their third such run of the season. They are only the 12 th team to have three or more runs of 4+ consecutive defeats in a Premier League season, with only three of the previous 11 avoiding relegation, most recently Newcastle in 2017-18.
- Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes has been involved in eight goals in his eight Premier League games so far (5 goals, 3 assists). He averages a goal involvement every 85 minutes in the Premier League this term, second to only Sergio Agüero (one every 77) among players to have played at least 500 minutes.
- Anthony Martial has scored eight goals in his last seven home league games for Manchester United, as many as he had in his previous 29 at Old Trafford in the Premier League.
WOLVES V ARSENAL
5.30pm Arsenal are on a roll at the moment and this is a massive game for Wolves. This is the best fixture of the day. With Chelsea losing on Wednesday night it now means Wolves are within three points of Leicester and two of Chelsea. United might be in good form, but Wolves will still fully believe they are reach a Top Four finish and what an achievement that would be. xG says Arsenal are having a very poor season and don’t deserve to be in 7th position, but they have momentum coming here after three straight wins; and that doesn’t happen often for Arsenal!
We have to remember that Arsenal’s three wins have come against Norwich, Sheffield United have Southampton. Norwich and Sheffield United have been playing very badly since lockdown and Southampton are bottom of the table on home form – so it’s difficult to read too much into Arsenal’s form. This game is the test. Wolves have been grinded out wins, as they usually do, and have yet to concede in three games since returning. They’ve played three poor sides too though in Aston Villa, Bournemouth and West Ham. I feel Wolves are a little short here at 2.34 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 here. That’s priced at 11.0 but the way Arsenal play, I prefer the draw at 3.4. I expect a tight game, and possibly a 1-1 score line feels more likely than 0-0.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.4.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwolars
- Wolves are unbeaten in their last three league games against Arsenal (W1 D2), last having a longer such run against the Gunners between December 1973-August 1975 (5 games).
- Arsenal lost this exact fixture last season, ending an eight-game unbeaten league run against Wolves at Molineux (W7 D1). They’ve not lost consecutive away games against Wolves since February 1975.
- Arsenal haven’t won any of their last 17 Premier League away games against sides starting the day higher than them in the table (D5 L12), with their last such victory coming in September 2015 against eventual champions Leicester City (5-2).
- Wolves are unbeaten in eight Premier League games (W5 D3), keeping a clean sheet in seven of them. Indeed, Wolves are currently on a run of 405 minutes without conceding a Premier League goal, since Serge Aurier netted against them for Spurs in March.
- Arsenal won their last Premier League away game 2-0 versus Southampton and are looking for back-to-back away victories in the competition for the first time since August. That victory against Southampton was the first time the Gunners had scored twice in an away league game without conceding in over three years (2-0 v Southampton May 2017).
- Wolves are the only side with a 100% winning record in the Premier League since the June restart. Indeed, across the whole Premier League campaign only champions Liverpool have lost fewer games than Wolves this term (6).
- Wolves have scored a league-high ratio 73% of their Premier League goals in the second half of games this season (33/45), while also conceding a league-low 11 times after half-time.
- Arsenal have won five of their last seven Premier League matches (L2), one more than they won in their previous 23 games (W4 D13 L6).
- Arsenal have benefitted from three opposition errors that have led to a goal in their four league games since the restart. The Gunners had only benefitted from four such errors in their opening 28 Premier League games this season.
- Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored 22 Premier League goals last season and has netted 19 this season – he needs one more goal to become only the second Gunners player to score 20 goals in consecutive Premier League seasons, after Thierry Henry (five in a row between 2001-02 and 2005-06).
CHELSEA V WATFORD
8pm Chelsea gave away their strong position in the race for a Top Four finish by losing to West Ham during the week, and they couldn’t say they were unlucky either. If anything West Ham had to do it the hard way after losing a goal through VAR and then going behind quickly afterwards. Watford have yet to win since returning from lockdown and Chelsea will see this as a good chance to get back to winning ways.
Watford have been involved in three very close games on xG numbers, and were marginally unlucky not to beat Leicester. Their xG puts them up towards midtable but the reality for them is they keep losing tight games. Scoring away goals has been a big problem – only 11 goals in 16 games and even allowing for a higher xG of nearly 15 that still isn’t impressive either. Apart from the FA Cup game against Leicester, Chelsea have been conceding goals and over 2.5 goals is worth backing at 1.76 here. Watford have been creating reasonable xG’s without being impressive and Chelsea can notch up a 2-1 or 3-1 win here. Overs is worth a small bet.
The Striker Says:
One points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQchewat
- Chelsea have won each of their last three Premier League games against Watford – it’s their fourth such run of three straight league wins against the Hornets, but they’ve never beaten them in four consecutively.
- Watford haven’t won away at Chelsea in any competition since May 1986 (5-1), drawing four and losing eight at Stamford Bridge since then.
- Chelsea have won each of their last three Premier League home games, having won just two of their previous seven at Stamford Bridge (D1 L4). They last won more consecutively at home in December 2017 under Antonio Conte (7).
- Watford have earned just six points from their last 30 available in the Premier League (W1 D3 L6). However, four of those six points have come against sides in the top four (3-0 v Liverpool, 1-1 v Leicester).
- Watford have shipped 49 goals in their 32 Premier League games this season – they’ve conceded at least 50 in each of their previous six full campaigns in the competition. Of teams to have played in more than five seasons in the Premier League, only Norwich (9/9) and QPR (7/7) have conceded 50+ goals in all of them.
- Chelsea have dropped 18 points from losing positions in the Premier League this season – only in 2015-16 (21) have they dropped more in a single campaign in the Roman Abramovich era.
- 66% of the Premier League goals Chelsea have conceded this season have come in the second half (29/44), the highest ratio in the division.
- Chelsea have lost four of their last five Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the bottom four of the table (W1), as many as they’d lost in their previous 37 such games (W27 D6 L4).
- Chelsea’s Willian has scored eight goals in the Premier League this season, three of which have come since the restart in June. It is the Brazilian’s joint best scoring season in the Premier League (also 2016-17), and his joint best season for goal involvements (8 goals, 5 assists), alongside 2017-18.
- Despite being Chelsea’s leading scorer in the Premier League this season with 13 goals, Tammy Abraham has failed to score in any of his last seven games in the competition.
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