THE STRIKER: previews the opening day of the new Premier League season on Saturday when BETDAQ will be offering 0% commission on all bets! Get the Striker’s verdict on all matches plus our Match Stats. The season starts at 12.30pm with Fulham taking on Arsenal at Craven Cottage.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
FULHAM V ARSENAL
12.30pm WE. ARE. BACK! What a way to welcome the new Premier League season as BETDAQ are offering 0% commission on all bets today! We kick off with Fulham hosting Arsenal. It might not be the start of the season that we all wanted with games still behind closed doors, but it’s still great to have football back. I have to say, this is a fascinating starting fixture. Fulham arrive from the Championship after the Playoffs while Arsenal look to start their season strongly hoping to try get back into the Top Six; at the minimum!
Last season was very poor for Arsenal. Not only did they finish down in 8th, xG actually put them lower. The buzz around Arsenal will be the FA Cup win and how Arteta is improving the team but the underlining numbers suggest they have been performing the same – just getting lucky with results. For example, they beat Watford 3-2 on the last day but actually lost 4.42 to 2.16 on xG, or when they beat Liverpool 2-1 they actually lost 2.51 to 0.78. They were lucky to beat Man City in the FA Cup too. I feel the jury is still out on Arsenal, and I think they are more than a little short at 1.59 here. I’m going to start the season with a lay.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Arsenal at 1.59 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQfulars
- Fulham have lost each of their last five Premier League matches against Arsenal, conceding nine goals in their two defeats against the Gunners the last time they were in the top-flight in 2018-19 (1-5 home, 1-4 away).
- Arsenal have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League matches against Fulham (W8 D4), going down 1-2 at Craven Cottage in January 2012.
- Arsenal and Fulham have only met on the opening day once previously in the top-flight, with the Gunners coming from behind to beat the Cottagers 2-1 on MD1 in 2007-08.
- Arsenal are looking to win on MD1 in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2009-10 (three in a row), while Fulham have lost their opening day game in each of their last two seasons, 0-2 to Crystal Palace in 2018-19 and 0-1 to Barnsley last term.
- Arsenal are facing a newly-promoted side on MD1 of a Premier League season for a fifth time, losing none of their previous four (W3 D1). Their last league defeat against a promoted side on opening day was back in 1976-77, losing 0-1 at Highbury to Bristol City.
- Fulham have lost their last 10 top-flight London derbies – losing all 10 in the 2018/19 season – the longest ever run by a club in top-flight history.
- Arsenal’s 28 MD1 games in the Premier League have seen a total of 11 red cards, more than any other side in the competition. The Gunners have had six players sent off in the opening game (most recently Laurent Koscielny in 2013-14), while their opponents have been shown five red cards (most recently Jason Puncheon in 2014-15).
- Arsenal haven’t lost any of their last 24 matches in the month of September in all competitions (W19 D5), since a 2-3 home defeat to Olympiakos in the Champions League in 2015.
- Since making his Fulham debut in February 2018, only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (54), Mo Salah (54) and Jamie Vardy (50) have scored more league goals in England’s top four tiers than Aleksandar Mitrovic (49), with 11 of those coming in the Premier League in 2018- 19.
- Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been directly involved in 16 goals in 13 Premier League appearances against newly-promoted opponents (12 goals, 4 assists), scoring three goals and assisting one in two games against Fulham in 2018-19.
CRYSTAL PALACE V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm This is an interesting fixture. It’s fair to say that both these sides will be aiming for the top end of mid-table and finishing in the top half would be an achievement. Southampton spent a lot of time towards the bottom of the table last season and that was down to their home form. They were 20th on home form for quite a while, and only past Norwich when they put together their excellent run at the end of the season.
They were very strong away from home last season, and that run can continue here. It’s hard to know what to make of how Palace finish the season – when we returned from lockdown they had nothing to play for and lost seven of their last eight. They were mentally gone and might be better with a new season, but they are my outside chance to go down this season and I’m happy to back Southampton to get off to a winning start here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Southampton to beat Crystal Palace at 2.5 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcrysth
- Crystal Palace have won just three of their 22 Premier League matches against Southampton (D6 L13), with this the first time they’ve met on the opening day.
- Southampton have won their last three away Premier League visits to Crystal Palace without conceding a single goal; Saints have never won four consecutive away top-flight matches against an opponent.
- Although this is their first Premier League meeting on the opening day, Crystal Palace and Southampton did meet on MD1 in 2007-08 in the Championship, with the Eagles winning 4-1 at St. Mary’s and James Scowcroft scoring a hat-trick.
- The home side hasn’t won any of the last six Premier League meetings between Crystal Palace and Southampton (D2 L4). The hosts had won five in a row in this fixture prior to this run.
- In the six opening day Premier League matches when Crystal Palace have played at home, they are yet to win (D2 L4); their last top-flight win at home on opening day came back in 1971-72, winning 2-0 against Newcastle United.
- Among teams to have played in at least 10 Premier League seasons, Southampton have the worst win percentage on MD1 in the comeptition, winning just two out of 21 (9.5%).
- Crystal Palace have won fewer points than any other current Premier League side in 2020 (16 – W4 D4 L10), while Southampton have won 30 (W9 D3 L6), the sixth-best tally this calendar year.
- Only the top two finishing sides Liverpool and Manchester City won more away Premier League games and away Premier League points than Southampton last season, with Saints’ nine wins and 31 points on the road in 2019-20 both top-flight records for the club.
- Southampton striker Danny Ings scored 22 Premier League goals last season, the most by a Saints player since James Beattie in 2002-03 (23). Ings has been directly involved in 14 goals in his last 14 away Premier League starts (12 goals, 2 assists).
- Jordan Ayew scored in 64% of Crystal Palace’s Premier League victories last season (7/11), with the Eagles remaining unbeaten in all nine games in which the Ghanaian scored (W7 D2).
LIVERPOOL V LEEDS
5.30pm With 0% commission on all bets on BETDAQ today, there’s going to be a lot of punters very keen on Liverpool at 1.3. I have to say, what a fixture for the opening day. The current Premier League Champions against the Championship Champions. An excellent way to start the season! We’ll get a look at how Leeds will cope with life in the Premier League – personally I think they will do better than everyone expects and finish in the top half, around 8th or 9th. They play some very good football.
Liverpool were by far and away the best side in the Premier League last season. I know xG put Manchester City in front of them, but Liverpool got the job done and had the title wrapped up early. Their focus now will be on regaining it and they need to win games like this. Both sides play an attacking brand of football, but I can see a cagey game here. Leeds won’t want to attack too much at Liverpool and I’m surprise over 2.5 goals is 1.55. I think there’s value in under 2.5 goals at 2.74 and I’m happy to take those odds. I see a Liverpool 1-0 or 2-0 win, but they’ll have to work hard for it.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.74 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQlivlee
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last eight games against Leeds in all competitions (W6 D2), since a 1-2 defeat in April 2001 in the Premier League.
- Leeds have lost their last three away matches against Liverpool in all competitions, with this the Whites’ first trip to Anfield since a 0-2 defeat in the League Cup in November 2016.
- Leeds have played more Premier League matches on MD1 without losing than any other team in the competition’s history (P12 W5 D7), while Liverpool have won six of their last seven games on opening day (D1), scoring 15 goals in their four under Jürgen Klopp (W3 D1).
- This is the seventh time in the Premier League that the reigning champions have faced a newly-promoted side at home on the opening day, with the title-holders winning all six of the previous games. Only two newly-promoted sides have won away at the reigning champions on MD1 in the top-flight – Notts County vs Aston Villa in 1981-82 and West Brom vs Arsenal in 1931-32.
- The winner of the previous season’s Championship hasn’t won their opening day Premier League match since Sunderland in 2007-08 against Spurs – all 12 sides since have failed to win (D3 L9), including Norwich last season, who lost 1-4 at Anfield against Liverpool.
- Liverpool have only lost once on the opening day of a top-flight season when they are reigning champions in 18 previous seasons (W12 D5), losing 0-2 against West Brom in the 1923-24 campaign.
- Leeds head coach Marcelo Bielsa is only the fourth Argentinian to manage in the English top-flight, after Ossie Ardilles, Mauricio Pochettino and Mauricio Pellegrino. Bielsa will be the second-oldest permanent manager (post-war) to take charge of his first game in the English top-flight (65y 53d) behind only Dick Advocaat, who was 67 when he took charge of Sunderland for the first time in March 2015.
- This will be Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp’s first Premier League match against Leeds, although he faced the Whites in the League Cup in November 2016, a 2-0 win. Klopp has beaten all 28 of the previous teams he has faced in the Premier League.
- Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah is looking to become the second player to score on MD1 in four consecutive Premier League seasons, after Teddy Sheringham (1992-93 – 1995-96); no Liverpool player has ever scored on MD1 in four consecutive seasons in their league history.
- Since his debut for Leeds in August 2016, Pablo Hernández has been involved in 74 goals in all competitions (36 goals, 38 assists), 28 more than any other Whites player. Hernández could become the third Leeds player to score on MD1 in three consecutive league seasons, after Russell Wainscoat (1926-27 – 1928-29) and Harold Brook (1954-55 – 1956-57).
WEST HAM V NEWCASTLE
8pm This game was due to kick off at 3pm, but it was moved to allow every game to be shown live on TV in September, which is an excellent decision by the Premier League. West Ham finished the season very strongly, they created some impressive xG numbers. We did see these two play not long ago which ended with a 2-2 draw. Newcastle had home advantage, if it counts as an advantage behind closed doors. West Ham were unlucky not to win, winning the game 2.33 to 1.32 on xG.
Newcastle are one of my favourites to go down this season. Their big money owner has fallen through so it looks like not much is going to change from last season. They were exceptionally lucky to stay up last season and it was remarkable that they weren’t even in a fight to stay up. They were the worst team in the league on xG, but nobody took their chances against them! Surely their luck will run out at some stage, and I’m happy to back West Ham at 2.22 to get three points here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win West Ham to beat Newcastle at 2.22 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwhunew
- West Ham have scored two or more goals in each of their last five Premier League games against Newcastle United; only versus Blackburn Rovers in March 2007 have they had a longer such scoring run against a team in the competition (7 games).
- Newcastle United have won nine Premier League away games against West Ham United – only versus Tottenham Hotspur (10) have they picked up more wins on the road in the competition.
- Newcastle United have lost 11 Premier League games on MD1, only opponents West Ham United have lost more such matches in the competition’s history (13).
- West Ham have lost their opening league match of the season in the last four seasons, shipping at least four goals in each of the last three. The last top-flight team to lose their opening league match in five consecutive seasons was Wimbledon between 1986-87 and 1990-91.
- Newcastle have lost their first league match of the season in six of the last seven campaigns, drawing the other. Their last opening day win was back in 2012-13, when they beat Spurs at St. James’ Park.
- Newcastle have lost 79 away Premier League matches in London, more than any other side, while manager Steve Bruce has won just 17% of his away games in the capital in the top-flight (P59 W10 D14 L35).
- West Ham dropped 26 points from winning positions in the 2019-20 Premier League, more than any other side. It was also the highest such tally recorded by the Hammers in a single Premier League campaign.
- Between them, West Ham manager David Moyes (8) and Newcastle boss Steve Bruce (5) have lost more Premier League games on MD1 (13) than the other 18 current managers in the competition combined (11).
- West Ham’s Michail Antonio ended last season with eight goals in his last seven Premier League appearances – his tally of eight goals in July 2020 is bettered only by Luis Suárez in December 2013 (10 goals) in a single calendar month in Premier League history.
- Newcastle’s Jonjo Shelvey has scored three Premier League goals against West Ham, netting home and away against them for the Magpies last season – against no side has he scored more top-flight goals (also 3 vs Fulham).
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