THE STRIKER: previews the four Premier League matches on Saturday starting with TOTTENHAM v LEEDS at 12.30pm. All previews include extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
TOTTENHAM V LEEDS
12.30pm It’s the first Premier League Saturday of 2021 and what an absolute cracker! We have some very competitive markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and all football bets are 0% commission today too! We start the day with Spurs hosting Leeds in a fascinating encounter. Leeds have been excellent going forward this season, however they have been leaving gaps at the back too. They have been the best team to watch for the neutral, and you could say that Spurs have been the second best given all the Jose Mourinho drama and their impressive performances mixed with dropping points. We should have an excellent game.
Since Spurs beat Royal Antwerp in the Europa League they have only managed one win in five with that win coming against Stoke in the Carabao Cup. They were unfortunate to lose to Liverpool but their xG figures are worrying compared to what they were creating at the start of the start. They are four Premier League games without a win, and the xG figures read 1.21, 1.41, 0.98 and 0.39. That 0.39 against Wolves was particularly disappointing, and I can’t help but lay Spurs at 1.82. Leeds have issues at the back and I fully accept that, but I feel Spurs are a little out of form going forward and given how much Leeds create, this seems the ideal time to lay Spurs.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Leeds at 1.82 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQtotlee
- After a run of eight defeats in nine Premier League meetings (D1) with Leeds between November 1997 and November 2001, Spurs have won four of their last five against them in the top-flight (D1), with this their first such game since January 2004 (1-0).
- This is the first meeting between Tottenham and Leeds in any competition since January 2013, when the Yorkshire side won an FA Cup tie 2-1 at Elland Road.
- Tottenham lost their first league game of 2020 (0-1 vs Southampton), last losing their first league game in consecutive calendar years in 2008/2009. When starting the new year at home, Tottenham are unbeaten since 1997 (1-2 vs Man Utd), winning nine and drawing one since.
- Leeds have won their first league game in just one of the last seven calendar years (D4 L2), beating Rotherham 3-0 in 2017.
- Following their 5-0 thrashing of West Brom, Leeds have now won four of their eight away games this season, one more than they managed through their entire last Premier League campaign in 2003-04 (3).
- Leeds have won one of their last 22 away league games in London (D6 L15), a 3-1 win via a Kemar Roofe hat-trick in December 2017 vs QPR. The last time the Whites started a calendar year with an away league win in London was in 1992, winning 3-1 against West Ham and going on to win the top-flight that season.
- This will be Spurs boss José Mourinho’s first ever meeting with Leeds in all competitions. He’s won all four meetings with Leeds boss Marcelo Bielsa by an aggregate score of 15-2, doing so in LaLiga with Real Madrid against Athletic Bilbao in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 campaigns.
- Spurs boss José Mourinho has only lost one of his 27 Premier League home games against newly-promoted sides (W21 D5) – 0-1 v Bournemouth in December 2015 while in charge of Chelsea.
- Leeds will be the 30th different opponent Tottenham striker Harry Kane has faced in the Premier League – he’s scored against each of the 29 sides he’s faced so far, the only player to score against 100% of the opponents he’s played against in the competition (min. 2 faced).
- In his first 15 Premier League games, Leeds United’s Jack Harrison has created 31 chances in open play, the most by a Premier League player in his first 15 matches since Dimitri Payet in January 2016 for West Ham (37), and the most of any Englishman since 2003-04 (when Opta began collecting this data).
CRYSTAL PALACE V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm Sheffield United extended their run without a win on Tuesday with a disappointing 1-0 loss to Burnley, and it’s getting to the stage when they need a miracle to stay up. They were so impressive before lockdown last season, it’ll be interesting to see where the club go from here. Just how do you turn around such a run? For a club so far detached at the bottom of the table, they haven’t played too badly. They have actually deserved to win games and collect more points than they have. It’s just one of those things now – morale drops so low it’s hard to not let the heads drop. Palace aren’t in good form themselves, and it’ll be interesting to see can they beat this Sheffield United side.
Palace managed to draw with Leicester on Monday, but they didn’t deserve to looking at xG. They conceded an xG of 1.93 to their 0.41. They gave up an xG of 4.70 against Aston Villa and got beat 7-0 by Liverpool before Christmas. I’ve said this a few times about Sheffield United this season and they have let me down, but this is a great chance for them to win. Palace look very short to me at 2.06 and I’m happy to lay them, but stakes are kept to a minimum given the position of Sheffield United and how many times they’ve let me down this season.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Crystal Palace to beat Sheffield United at 2.06 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcryshu
- Crystal Palace lost both Premier League meetings with Sheffield United last season – they’ve not lost three consecutive league games against the Blades since April 1973.
- Crystal Palace were one of just two sides Sheffield United won home and away against in the Premier League last season (along with Norwich), and were also one of two teams the Blades kept two clean sheets against (also Aston Villa).
- Sheffield United lost their first league game of 2020, going down 0-2 at Liverpool. They’ve not lost their first league game in consecutive calendar years since doing so in 2011 and 2012.
- When playing their first league game of a calendar year at home, Crystal Palace have won just one of their last six such matches (D2 L3), beating Wolves 3-1 in 2013.
- Sheffield United have won just 8% of their Premier League games in London, winning two of their 25 visits (D8 L15). Indeed, of all teams to have played at least 20 Premier League away games in the capital, only Derby have a lower win rate (2.6%).
- This will be Sheffield United’s 15th Premier League game starting the day in the relegation zone this season, already three more than they played in the drop zone the last season they were actually relegated from the division (12 in 2006-07).
- Sheffield United are winless in their 16 Premier League games this season (D2 L14) – equalling Queens Park Rangers’ Premier League record of longest winless run from the start of a campaign (16 in 2012-13). The last English top-flight side to fail to win any of their first 17 games in a season was Bolton Wanderers in 1902-03 (22).
- Only West Brom (43) have had fewer shots on target in the Premier League this season than Sheffield United (46). The Blades also have the biggest negative difference between expected goals (16.3) and goals scored (8) this season, netting around eight goals fewer than would normally be expected based on the quality of their chances.
- Only Sheffield United (19) are on a longer current run of games without a clean sheet in the Premier League than Crystal Palace (15). The Blades are the only side in 2020-21 yet to record a Premier League shutout, while the Eagles have the second lowest total so far (1).
- Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored eight goals in 14 Premier League appearances this season, twice as many as he netted in 2019-20 (4 in 38 apps). Indeed, Zaha is looking to reach double figures for goals in a Premier League campaign for only the second time in his career, also doing so in 2018-19 (10 goals in 34 games).
BRIGHTON V WOLVES
5.30pm Another fascinating fixture and we have a very open market. Brighton started 2021 just outside the bottom three but in fairness to them they haven’t been playing bad football. They have been unlucky with a few results, but the reality is they need to take their chances. For example, they finished the game against Sheffield United with an xG of 3.01 and a 1-1 draw. They will view this game as a great chance to claim three points as Wolves have been really out of sorts this season. They lost late to Man United on Tuesday, but they didn’t deserve anything as they only created an xG of 0.46 to United’s 1.72. They haven’t been grinding out results like they usually do.
I view this game as a game to keep stakes to a minimum, but Brighton do make a lot of appeal at 2.76. Looking at their xG figures they have been creating more than Wolves, and you have to say that Wolves are there for the taking at the moment. Stakes have to be kept low because of the run that Brighton are on however – they just aren’t getting the job done in games. I’d assume the draw will have a lot of backers at 3.35 and while that is a tempting bet, Brighton are too big to ignore for a small bet at the odds.
The Striker Says:
One point win Brighton to beat Wolves at 2.76 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbhawol
- In their top-flight history, Brighton have played more games against Wolves without ever losing than they have any other opponents (10 – W7 D3). The Seagulls have kept eight clean sheets in these 10 matches, shipping just three goals in total.
- Wolves have won just two of their 16 away league games against Brighton (D6 L8), picking up 1-0 victories in the Championship in September 2004 and January 2016.
- Brighton have lost their first league game in just one of the last 11 calendar years (W6 D4), though that was a home loss to Wolves in the Championship in 2016. The Seagulls have drawn each of their three such games in the Premier League.
- In the top-flight, Wolves have failed to win their first league game of a calendar year in their last eight attempts (D1 L7) since a 3-0 win against Middlesbrough in 1981. Wolves have conceded exactly two goals in each of these eight matches.
- Brighton have never won a Premier League game kicking off at 5.30pm, with the Seagulls losing their first four such games and drawing the most recent five.
- Wolves have now conceded in each of their last nine games in the Premier League; their joint-longest run without a clean sheet in the competition under Nuno Espírito Santo (also nine games between December 2019 and January 2020). Wolves last went 10 in a row without a clean sheet in the top-flight in April 2012 (a run of 30).
- Since the restart of the Premier League in June, only Sheffield United (3) have won fewer games in the competition amongst teams to compete in both 2019-20 and 2020-21 than Brighton (5).
- Wolves have lost their last three away Premier League matches – they last lost four in a row in the competition back in December 2011 (6).
- Wolves have won just one of their six Premier League games since the injury to Raúl Jiménez (W1 D1 L4), scoring just four goals with an average Expected Goals total of 0.81 per match. Prior to this, Wolves had won five of their 10 Premier League games this season with Jiménez playing (1.02 xG per game).
- Since the start of last season, Neal Maupay has scored 15 Premier League goals, nine more than any other Brighton player. However, nine of Maupay’s 15 goals have come away from home (60%) and only two of his last nine strikes have arrived at the Amex stadium.
WEST BROM V ARSENAL
8pm We finish the day with an intriguing question for all football punters – do you trust Arsenal enough to back them at odds on away from home? Usually this type of bet comes with a wealth warning, but I must say the 1.66 is hard to get away from. West Brom have been very poor this season; although ironically they have managed to hold Man City and Liverpool to 1-1 draws recently. They’ve also been hammered by Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Leeds recently too and for me they give up so many chances that it’s worth backing Arsenal at the odds.
Long-term readers will know I’m not a huge fan of Arsenal, but I believe this is a good time to back them. They will have plenty of confidence coming into the game off the back of two wins and let’s be honest – West Brom are there to be beaten given the standard they have been playing at this season. For Arsenal fans you’d have to worry about the long-term picture – I don’t think they deserved to beat Chelsea or Brighton. They Chelsea game finished with an xG of 2.73 to 2.34 for Cheslea and the Brighton game finished with an xG of 1.26 to 0.94 to Arsenal. It’s a good sign they grinded out a close game though, and they should be able to get the better of the West Brom side – I would have them shorter than 1.6.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Arsenal to beat West Brom at 1.66 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbaars
- West Brom are unbeaten in their last three Premier League home games against Arsenal (W2 D1), having only avoided defeat in three of their first nine against them at the Hawthorns in the competition (W1 D2 L6).
- Arsenal have scored in all 24 of their Premier League meetings with West Brom, the best 100% scoring record by one side against an opponent in the competition’s history.
- Arsenal have won just one of their last six Premier League away games against promoted sides (D2 L3), with that victory coming at Fulham on the opening day this season.
- Arsenal have lost their opening league game in just two of the last 19 calendar years (W11 D6), losing 0-2 at Southampton in 2015 and 1-2 at Fulham in 2012.
- Arsenal lost their last league game against a side in the relegation zone, losing 0-1 at home to Burnley – the Gunners have never lost consecutive Premier League games against a side starting the day in the drop zone before.
- West Bromwich Albion have lost their last three home Premier League games by an aggregate score of 1-13, conceding three or more goals in each defeat. The Baggies have never lost four consecutive home top-flight games while also shipping 3+ goals in each defeat.
- West Brom have won just eight points in the Premier League so far this season – only in 1985-86 have they amassed fewer points after 16 games of a top-flight campaign (6 – converted to 3pts/win all-time). Each of the previous five sides to earn eight points or fewer after 16 Premier League games of a season were relegated, most recently Aston Villa in 2015-16.
- Arsenal have won as many Premier League games in their last two outings (2), as they did in their previous 12 combined (W2 D2 L8). The Gunners are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games under Mikel Arteta for the fourth time, also doing so in September, July and March 2020.
- Only against Man City and Man Utd (17 each) has West Brom boss Sam Allardyce lost more Premier League games than he has vs Arsenal (16). His last three league victories against the Gunners have been with different clubs – 3-1 with Bolton (Nov 2006), 2-1 with Blackburn (May 2010) and 3-0 with Crystal Palace (April 2017).
- Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been involved in 17 goals in 15 Premier League games against promoted sides (13 goals, 4 assists). However, four of the five games in which he’s failed to score against a promoted side have come away from home.
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